Sea temperatures near record in March as El Nino odds rise

Global sea surface temperatures rose to their second-highest level on record in March and edged closer to the peaks seen during the last El Nino episode, the European Union's (EU) climate monitor said on Friday, suggesting the climate may be entering a new warming phase later this year.

Average sea surface temperature over the extra-polar oceans, spanning 60 degrees south to 60 degrees north, reached 20.97 degrees Celsius in March, the second-highest level on record for the month, behind only March 2024 during the previous El Nino event, according to the EU-funded Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

Daily sea surface temperatures increased steadily throughout the month and approached the record levels observed in 2024, it said.

Copernicus added that many climate centers are forecasting a transition from neutral conditions to El Nino in the second half of 2026. The weather pattern, marked by warming surface waters in the equatorial Pacific, can drive up global temperatures and intensify extreme weather in some regions.

March 2026 was also the world's fourth-warmest March on record, with the global average surface air temperature standing 1.48 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) level, C3S said.

The month saw Europe experience its second-warmest March on record and much of the continent witnessed drier-than-average conditions following a colder-than-average and exceptionally wet February.

March was also marked by severe heat and dry conditions in other parts of the world, including an unprecedented early heatwave and drier-than-average conditions in parts of the United States and Mexico. In the Arctic, both the annual maximum sea ice extent and the March average reached their lowest levels on record.

"Copernicus data for March 2026 tells a sobering story," said Carlo Buontempo, director of the C3S at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. "Each figure is striking on its own – together, they paint a picture of a climate system under sustained and accelerating pressure."