IMF Projects Morocco Growth at 4.4%, Citing Investment and Agriculture
Rabat – Morocco is set to maintain steady economic expansion thanks to solid farm output and continued public investment in infrastructure, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has assessed, forecasting the country’s real GDP growth of 4.4% in 2026.
The projection follows the IMF’s latest review of Morocco’s economy, which points to a resilient trajectory despite a more uncertain global climate.
The Moroccan economy picked up pace in 2025, with growth standing at 4.9%. A recovery in agriculture, combined with major infrastructure projects, supported this rebound.
Tourism and construction also contributed to the overall performance. Yet unemployment remains high, and the IMF review suggests this concern continues to weigh considerably on the country’s broader outlook.
Price pressures stayed subdued last year. Inflation averaged 0.8%, which allowed Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) to keep its policy stance unchanged after earlier rate cuts.
At the same time, stronger-than-expected revenues helped contain the fiscal deficit at 3.5% of GDP, despite higher spending on public projects and support to state-owned firms.
The IMF expects growth to remain close to current levels in the near term, with 4.5% projected for 2027 and around 4% over the medium term.
This path depends on stable agricultural output and continued investment, alongside a greater role for private operators.
Pressure points remain despite solid performance
Still, the outlook does not come without pressure. The ongoing tensions in the Middle East may affect Morocco through higher energy costs and softer external demand.
These factors could push inflation up in the short term before it returns to around 2%.
External balances may also feel the impact. Imports linked to infrastructure projects, along with rising commodity prices, are likely to widen the current account deficit.
Even so, reserve levels are expected to remain comfortable, while public debt should gradually decline to about 60.5% of GDP by 2031.
The IMF report draws attention to the need for stronger job creation. It argues that a more active private sector will play a central role, along with reforms that ensure fair competition with public entities and adjustments in the labor market.
Following the review, IMF Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura said Morocco continues to show resilience. While noting that the country’s policy framework remains solid, he warned that global uncertainty requires careful economic management and steady reform efforts.
Morocco still qualifies for the IMF’s Flexible Credit Line, which authorities treat as a precautionary tool. A gradual exit remains under consideration, depending on how external risks evolve.
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