Anyone flying from UK this summer warned of 'total mess' and 'very expensive tickets'

Jet fuel shortages could make travel a "total mess" this summer, leading experts have warned. Volatile jet fuel prices are causing tough conditions for airlines around the world , with tens of thousands of flights cancelled in the last week alone and warnings that many more could follow. But there are also claims that the European market is even more exposed to these challenges, the UK especially. This week, Lufthansa, the German airline, said it was scrapping 20,000 flights between now and October and many other leading airlines around the world have taken similar action. The conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are behind the dramatic rises in fuel costs. And Rob Britton, a professor of crisis management at Georgetown University and a retired American Airlines executive, told the New York Times that even when the war ends, it will take months for fuel prices and airfares to stabilise. "It won’t happen overnight," Dr. Britton said. "It’s a total, total mess." EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen told Sky News that many people would be hit by the high price and low availability of aviation fuel. “Unfortunately, it’s very likely that many people’s holidays will be affected, either because of flight cancellations or very, very expensive tickets,” he said. “Even if we do everything we can, if the jet fuel is not there, then it’s not there.” And Katy Nastro, a travel expert at Going.com, a membership service for finding cheap flights, told the New York Times: "There is a level of uncertainty here that we have not seen since Covid when it comes to travel. This will be a challenging year for the average traveller hoping to take an affordable summer vacation." Citing a JP Morgan report released this week, The New York Times reports that jet fuel supplies in Europe could run low by mid-May and that carriers are increasingly passing costs on to passengers wherever they can or simply cancelling flights. Global prices of jet fuel have soared by more than 70% since the start of the war, according to the Platts Jet Fuel Price Index. This means the prospect of getting a reasonably-priced holiday are diminishing. And the situation is more acute for European and Asian airlines, which rely far more heavily on oil from the Middle East. The JP Morgan report said said that fuel shortages and continued high prices will “likely lead to summer capacity cuts from June onwards, starting with domestic and marginal routes”. According to the New York Times, "the bank’s analysts flagged Britain as higher risk relative to other European countries because of its reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports". British Airways ’ parent company IAG said this week that it is "making some pricing adjustments to reflect higher fuel costs", though Jet2 has ruled out fuel surcharges. A spokesperson for IAG said: “We are not seeing jet fuel supply interruptions but fuel prices have risen sharply and, despite our hedging strategy which gives some shorter term mitigation, we are not immune to the impact." As things stand, "the situation is considerably less dire and UK airlines are not reporting a shortage of fuel", said travel expert Simon Calder, adding: "In some parts of the world, particularly in Asia, flight cuts have been deep and steep surcharges have been added to air fares. So far the impact on British passengers has been limited." However, that might change. A spokesperson for Europe’s biggest budget airline, Ryanair, told The Independent: “We don’t expect any near-term fuel shortages, but the situation is fluid. At present our fuel suppliers can guarantee supply to mid-end May. If the Iran war finishes soon then supply will not be disrupted. If the closure of the Hormuz Straits continues into May or June then we cannot rule out risks to fuel supplies at some airports in Europe.” Airlines UK, representing the main carriers, told The Independent: "Airlines continue to operate normally and are not experiencing issues with jet fuel supply." And a UK government spokesperson said: "UK airlines are clear that they are not currently seeing a shortage of jet fuel. Aviation fuel is typically bought in advance, and airports and their suppliers keep stocks of bunkered fuel to support their resilience." ABTA says: "If your flight is cancelled and you’re departing from the UK, your airline must offer you the choice of a replacement flight at the earliest opportunity or a refund. "If you choose the replacement flight, often referred to as being ‘rerouted’, most airlines will book you on another of their flights to the same destination. However, if an alternative airline is flying there significantly sooner then you may have the right to be booked on to that flight instead. "If you choose a refund, you can get your money back for all parts of the ticket you haven’t used. For instance, if you’ve booked a return flight and the outbound leg is cancelled, you can get the full cost of the return ticket back from your airline." But you may not get compensation. ABTA says: "If it wasn’t the airline’s fault, you won’t be entitled to receive any compensation. Cancellations caused by things like extreme weather , airport or air traffic control strikes or other 'extraordinary circumstances' are not eligible for compensation."