Why the under 4.5 through five innings is the play in Nationals-Giants with Foster Griffin facing Robbie Ray

I took a hit on my baseball plays last week. Part of the problem is that I've been too focused on hockey and basketball, and part of it was just bad luck. I did get some money back on my loss from last week as I took Christopher Sanchez last night to beat the Blue Jays on the run line. He did that without much issue.

Today, we are back on the diamond, but taking on a different series as the Washington Nationals play the San Francisco Giants.

The Nationals have been surprisingly good this year. For a team that most expected to compete for one of the worst records in baseball, I have to give them a bit of credit. There are fewer than 100 games remaining and they have a winning record. Let's not start selling playoff tickets or anything, but this is still good work out of Washington. The young players seem like they are getting things together, and it is clicking for now. 

They send out Foster Griffin to the hill in hopes of sweeping the Giants this series. Griffin is one of those youngsters who has been delivering for the Nationals this year. Only, he's not all that young. He is 30, but he never really had a full chance until this season. He is dealing. Griffin has a 7-2 record with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. He has been better on the road, but I wouldn't call his numbers fantastic. He has the upper hand today as the Giants have never really seen him, but he actually performs better the second and third times through a lineup. 

The Giants are not quite a disaster, but they are teetering on that term for the season. They are 27-41 and despite a lineup full of great players, they are basically inept on offense. With a losing record, it isn't much of a surprise, but they have been bad at home, too. They are 12-18 at home, and part of me does wonder if their manager is to blame for any of this. Without any major league experience, they trust their club to Tony Vitello. 

It isn't like Vitello is hitting for them. His goal is to put guys in spots to succeed and draw out the best for his team. I'd argue that managers in baseball make the fewest impactful decisions of any of the big four coaches. However, I'm sure there is more strategy than I'll ever understand. A pretty simple approach to the game is to take Robbie Ray and put him on the mound. That's what he gets to do today. Ray has been average this year. He is 4-6 with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. He has been better at home, posting a sub-3 ERA over six starts. If you're going to boost your confidence in him anywhere, it would be in San Francisco.

Ray also has been very good in his past performances against Nationals hitters. He has been hittable, but not offered much. The Nationals hitters are just 6-for-31 against Ray, good for a .193 batting average. Griffin just needs to keep doing what he does in order to keep the Giants' bats quiet.

This does feel like a game the Giants should win. I've been impressed enough with Griffin's stuff that he is hard to fade. Even with Ray on the mound, the Giants still need to score runs to win. I don't see the runs coming against Griffin for five innings, and I think Ray should be reliable for five innings. Give me the under 4.5 through five in this one.