Why Patrick Kane's future could be the key domino of the Red Wings' offseason

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In some ways, the answers to both could depend on the future of pending unrestricted free-agent winger Patrick Kane. One of the Red Wings’ biggest flaws this season was their struggle to score at 5-on-5. Detroit’s 2.13 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 ranked 30th in the NHL, per Evolving Hockey. Meanwhile, seven of the eight playoff teams in the Eastern Conference finished in the top 10 in that statistic league-wide. The only one who didn’t, the Philadelphia Flyers, ranked 20th at 2.44, still well ahead of the Red Wings. That is a crucial gap for Detroit to close next season, and Kane, even at 37, is one of the few Red Wings consistently doing so. As low as that team-wide number was, Detroit scored 2.84 5-on-5 goals per 60 with Kane on the ice. That ranked second on the team behind only his linemate, Alex DeBrincat, and was much more in line with where the top teams in the East sat this season. If Kane were to leave as a free agent, solving the Red Wings’ scoring problem would immediately become even harder. The good news, for the Red Wings? Kane walked into his end-of-season media availability on Friday wearing a Detroit Tigers hat and talking like someone interested in returning for a fourth season in Detroit. He said he will take the time to talk with his agent and family, and the emotions of the season are still quite fresh. Kane said he “thought we’d be playing right now,” and thus wasn’t thinking too much about the future down the stretch. Nonetheless, the message was positive. “I’d love to be part of the solution that helps us get over the hump, for sure,” Kane said. “I think there is mutual interest to come back, continue my career here. It’s been a great spot for me, my family, my son. It’s been a great spot to continue my career. So, I’ve definitely enjoyed my time here. The organization has been absolutely incredible with me and my family, which is appreciated and something you realize as well. “I don’t think anyone’s in a rush to make any decisions or anything like that, so we’ll see how everything plays out.” That’s not a hard commitment, but it’s encouraging. Kane’s last two contracts went down to the wire, with the star winger signing on the eve of free agency both times. That may be the case again. However, it could be in the Red Wings’ interest to resolve this one a bit sooner this time around, because Kane’s decision could wind up being a pivot point for how Detroit tries to answer its biggest offseason questions. On one hand, the Red Wings need to get bigger and more imposing, and that’s not Kane’s game. He’s not chasing contact or finishing hard hits on the forecheck at this point in his career. At the same time, though, those scoring numbers speak for themselves, and the picture gets even clearer when you isolate the late-season games that have caused Detroit so many problems in recent seasons. Starting March 1, it was Kane and DeBrincat leading the way offensively. DeBrincat led the team with 27 points in 22 games, and Kane was second, at 24 in his last 22. The team’s 5-on-5 scoring rate with them on the ice actually went up in those games. Since Kane first signed with Detroit back in December 2023, he has also led the team in game-winning goals and was tied for 15th in the league during that span with 17. That speaks to his feel for the big moment on a team searching for exactly that. This year, he had a pair of injuries that cost him some time, and he acknowledged on Friday that he struggled a bit to find his top form as he returned from them. But at the end of the year, when it really counted, he was again one of the most noticeable players on the ice. “I still think I have the ability to elevate when it’s the most important time,” Kane said. “I’ve always been able to do that throughout my career. I still think that’s something that lives in me. So, I mean, I don’t want to blame everything on the injuries in the beginning of the year, but I thought I could have had a better year overall. I think just looking at everything, I think I can be better next year, I think I can bring another level of production and play to the team. So yeah, that’s kind of where I’m at. But I still think even 19th season, going into my 20th, I still think there’s the ability to elevate at the most important time.” If Kane stays, the Red Wings can confidently put him opposite DeBrincat on their second line and expect the kind of 5-on-5 production they sorely need. They could also keep Andrew Copp between them, maximizing Copp’s potential and keeping their most consistently effective line intact this season. That would allow them to focus their efforts on reworking a bottom-six that never found a true identity — coming up short both offensively and in terms of physicality — and, ideally, finding a higher-end running mate for Lucas Raymond and Dylan Larkin on the top line. Larkin, in particular, struggled to produce at 5-on-5 this season, and his 25 points were his second-lowest at 5-on-5 of any full-length season in his career. He finished the season playing through injury, which clearly limited him, but those struggles were present before the injury, too. Some of it can be attributed to the role. Larkin took Detroit’s toughest minutes this season, but he said Friday he “love(s) that role,” and Detroit will need him to continue it going forward. So while Emmitt Finnie’s push to make the roster and play many games on the top line at age 20 was a great story, and an encouraging sign for his future, the Red Wings could really benefit from finding a more proven option for that spot next season. That would free up Finnie to play a third-line role, perhaps next to Marco Kasper for what could be a young, fast and fearless checking line. Those two led all Red Wings forwards in hits last season, and in 178 minutes together at 5-on-5, had an expected goals share above 58 percent. Next to them, you could mix in another young player like Michael Brandsegg-Nygård or Carter Mazur to add a dangerous shooter and more physicality, or a veteran like J.T. Compher to provide defensive conscience. Detroit would have room to redesign the fourth line from there. That approach would still require plenty of work to find the right top-line fit and fix a stale fourth line, but the vision isn’t too hard to see. On the other hand, if Kane were to leave, the task would get much more complicated. In a world without Kane, the Red Wings might be best served by simply moving DeBrincat up with Larkin and Raymond. His scoring touch would fit well there. Raymond is a highly capable playmaker to feed him, and DeBrincat’s pace and grit would complement the pair. In the 80 5-on-5 minutes those three played together this season, they had an expected goals share of nearly 70 percent, plus an actual goals share not far off that, while also grading out extremely well in each underlying component. That trio would work. That’s only one line, though, and the Red Wings would suddenly have far more work to do with the rest of their lineup. Copp has played his best hockey alongside Kane and DeBrincat, and the Red Wings have no other players similar to them they could elevate. They would have to either scour a barren free-agent market for lesser equivalents, explore costly trade options or rethink what their second line looks like entirely. Do you chase a pricey free agent like Alex Tuch, Anders Lee, Charlie Coyle or Mason Marchment to play with Copp, then elevate Finnie or Kasper for pace? Do you put Kasper in the 2C spot, hoping he can recapture the offensive production he found last season with a free agent or trade acquisition, and give Brandsegg-Nygård a try in the top six? Those would be heavy lines with offensive potential, but are far from sure things. At some point, of course, the Red Wings will have to do this kind of re-imagining of their lineup regardless. Kane won’t play forever, and they are unlikely to find a replacement who can manipulate the game as he does. That will require them to try some different flavors and styles eventually. Certainly, Detroit also needs to have some heavier elements in its lineup next year, regardless. Kane isn’t that. Heavy or not, Kane is one of the few players finding a way to get it done for Detroit offensively. For a Red Wings team that already has plenty of questions going into this offseason, losing one of those few reliable 5-on-5 producers would create a whole new type of challenge in trying to replace him. “He’s a huge part of our team,” DeBrincat said. “I think we’re really working towards something here, and obviously, (it) hasn’t gone our way the past couple years, but we believe in the group we have and the players we have here, and he’s a big part of that. And I think he sees it too, that’s why he chose coming here in the first place. But yeah, it’s ultimately his decision. And we can beg him all we want, but we’ll see what happens.” Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Max Bultman has covered the Red Wings for The Athletic since 2018. He previously was a general assignment writer in Detroit and is a 2017 graduate of the University of Michigan. Follow Max on Twitter @m_bultman