With the 2026 season having reached its summer break, Antonelli has defied expectations to build a 50-point advantage over Ferrari's Lewis Hamilton in second, ahead of the Dutch Grand Prix from August 21-23.
The 19-year-old Italian has won six of this season's first 11 grands prix, and his advantage makes him the clear favourite to remain at the top of the standings when the 12 remaining scheduled rounds are complete.
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Antonelli's lead would have been even greater had it not been for an engine blowout in Barcelona and wheel-guard failure at Silverstone costing him a major haul of points.
However, there's still a huge amount of work to do for Antonelli to claim the title, with Mercedes' early-season dominance having faded as Ferrari and McLaren combined to win three of the last five races before the break.
Antonelli will not only have to contend with potentially not having the fastest car on the grid during the second half of season, but also the pressure of attempting to close out the capture of a maiden title.
Why would Antonelli winning be a surprise?
At the start of this season, Antonelli had never won an F1 race. The highlights of the 19-year-old's rookie campaign had been a Sprint pole in Miami and grand prix podium finishes in Canada, Brazil and Las Vegas.
Having been fast-tracked into one of F1's most desirable seats to replace the Ferrari-bound Hamilton at the start of 2025, Antonelli endured a rookie campaign that left many questioning whether he was the generational talent Mercedes insisted they had unearthed.
Even if, as it appears to have been the case, some of Antonelli's struggles last year were down to inexperience and the all-round challenge of being an F1 driver rather than any lack of talent, few envisioned him as the 2026 world champion.
The main reason for that was the perceived strength of his team-mate George Russell, who had more than held his own alongside seven-time world champion Hamilton during their three years as team-mates, before outscoring Antonelli by 319-150 points in 2025.
Therefore, even if Mercedes met expectations by delivering the strongest car following F1's rules reset for 2026. It seemed highly unlikely that Antonelli could make a big enough leap over the winter to be able to get the better of Russell over the course a full season.
There was also the fact that even if Antonelli could find a way to beat Russell, the likes of Hamilton, four-time world champion Max Verstappen and reigning world champion Lando Norris were - and are - all waiting to pounce on an opportunity.
Add into the mix that the youngest world champion in F1 history is currently Sebastian Vettel, who won his first title when he was 23 years and four months old, and it just seemed like a far-fetched idea that Antonelli, who turns 20 later his month, could be ready.
As Antonelli continues his quest for glory, here are some of the drivers who have previously upset the odds to become a world champion.
Fernando Alonso, Renault - 2005
Similarly to Antonelli, Fernando Alonso was regarded as a star of the future going into 2005 but nobody expected him to dominate in the fashion he did, wrapping up the first of two titles with two races to spare.
Alonso had won just one race prior to 2005 but Renault became serious front-runners thanks to a key regulation change which outlawed tyre changes at pit stops.
The Spaniard built an early season lead as Renault won the opening four races and capitalised on his main championship rival, McLaren's Kimi Raikkonen, suffering reliability issues.
Alonso's team-mate Giancarlo Fisichella could not cope with the sheer speed of the then 24-year-old, who became the youngest world champion in F1 history at the time.
Michael Schumacher had won the previous five drivers' titles but 2005 felt like a passing of the baton and Alonso confirmed that by also winning the 2006 championship.
Jenson Button, Brawn - 2009
Perhaps the biggest surprise in F1 history is the memorable 2009 season where Jenson Button and Brawn became world champions.
Partly due to the 2008 financial crisis, Honda surprisingly left F1 so Button, team-mate Rubens Barichello, team principal Ross Brawn and chief executive Nick Fry were left without jobs.
Brawn and Fry bought the team for £1 to create Brawn GP before doing the unthinkable - designing and creating a car which started the season as the benchmark.
Button, who had only won one race at the 2006 Hungarian Grand Prix, and Barichello claimed a remarkable one-two at the season-opening.
The British driver triumphed at six of the opening seven races before budget limitations saw Brawn's rivals reel them in as the season progressed.
Nevertheless, Button held on to win the title ahead of Red Bull's Sebastian Vettel, before Brawn GP was bought by Mercedes over the following winter.
Nico Rosberg, Mercedes - 2016
Having beaten Mercedes team-mate Nico Rosberg to the title in 2014 and 2015, Lewis Hamilton was the clear favourite to become a four-time world champion in 2016. However, Rosberg had other ideas.
Although Hamilton only won the 2014 title at the last race, things were significantly more comfortable in 2015 as he wrapped up the championship with three races to spare.
Very few believed Rosberg could beat Hamilton over the course of a season but everything came together in 2016 for the German to come out on top.
He won the opening four races, while Hamilton struggled to get on top of his car. Rosberg also capitalised on his team-mate's reliability issues to build a 23-point lead with five rounds remaining.
By winning the Japanese Grand Prix, it meant Rosberg could finish second at the last four rounds and still be world champion. By then, he started to think about retiring if he achieved his dream so the pressure was sky-high.
Hamilton won the final four races and attempted to back up his team-mate at the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, but Rosberg held on to finish second, which was enough to secure the title.
The Formula 1 season resumes after the summer break with a Sprint weekend at the Dutch Grand Prix from August 21-23, with every session live on Sky Sports. Stream Sky Sports with NOW - no contract, cancel anytime
