What next for Nicolas Jackson: With Bayern clause not triggered, will Chelsea cash in elsewhere?

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Jackson is returning to Chelsea, to begin with at least, having spent this campaign on loan at Bayern Munich, a move that was completed on deadline day (September 1). The Athletic reported in September that Chelsea had agreed a loan fee worth €16.5million, but with a conditional obligation for Bayern to make the transfer permanent set at €65m (£56.3, $76.1m) at the end of 2025-26. Earlier this week, Bayern’s sporting director Max Eberl confirmed the Bundesliga club will not be triggering that obligation. It did not come as a great surprise. Just two weeks after the forward arrived in Germany, Bayern’s honorary president, Uli Hoeness, said that the conditions were very unlikely to be met because Jackson would have to start 40 games, not including the German Cup. That left just the Bundesliga (34 matches) and the Champions League for Jackson to reach the tally, while competing for a place in the side with main striker Harry Kane. Jackson has fallen well short of the number required. He has been named in the first XI on just 13 occasions (Bundesliga and Champions League), with only 1,151 minutes of playing time. One of the factors behind that was going away with Senegal to compete at the Africa Cup of Nations at the beginning of the year. But to put the figure in perspective, he made 37 appearances totalling 2,535 minutes for Chelsea last season, and that was despite being ruled out with a hamstring injury for a few months and getting suspended for two red cards. The Athletic reported, before the two clubs played each other in the Champions League group phase seven months ago, that Jackson and his camp were quietly confident a transfer would happen regardless, even if it meant a renegotiation of the terms. So what happened? It is not as if Jackson has performed badly for Bayern. He has a credible 10 goals and four assists in 29 appearances, so essentially a goal involvement every two matches. In many ways, Jackson has fulfilled the role of being a backup forward adequately enough. Kane has been in ridiculous form (54 goals) and largely injury-free, so the Senegal international has never had much of a chance to get a regular run in the side. The opportunity of playing on the left flank was limited, too, due to the presence of Luis Diaz. Head coach Vincent Kompany spoke out in defence of Jackson’s contribution in March after he had scored in a 4-1 win over Borussia Monchengladbach. Aware of Jackson coming under some negative media scrutiny, Kompany said, “I have to say that I noticed since I’ve been here that when everything is going well in the team, there are attempts to single out a player or two without any reason. Last season, it was Serge Gnabry, sometimes Kingsley Coman, now it’s Nicolas Jackson. The reality of our dressing room is that it’s calm. Nicolas has performed very well in training and replicated it today. It’s true that when Kane plays in your position, or Michael Olise, or Luis Diaz, it’s a bit difficult. There’s nothing more. Nico has done very well today and hopefully will do it again soon.” When Kane was ruled out of the first leg of their last-16 Champions League tie at Atalanta the following week, Jackson scored and assisted a goal in a remarkable 6-1 win. Unfortunately, in his very next start at Bayer Leverkusen four days later, the 24-year-old was sent off for a reckless challenge on Martin Terrier and given a two-game ban. Apart from that faux pas, Bayern’s fans seemed pretty happy with Jackson’s contribution overall. Bayern are now having to go through the process of finding another striker in the market to play second fiddle to Kane. It will not be easy, but they prefer that to spending €65m on Jackson. Chelsea do not believe his value has diminished from his Bayern experience. Sources speaking to The Athletic under the condition of anonymity to protect relationships say they still see him as a player worth up to £60m. There is a good reason they can still command a high asking price. Jackson’s game has come on a great deal since joining Chelsea from Villarreal for just over €35million in 2023, and he still has seven years remaining on his contract. Jackson has a very credible 30 goals — none from penalties — and 12 assists in 81 appearances for Chelsea, where he won the Conference League and Club World Cup in 2025. Jackson also has 31 Senegal caps, helping them reach the AFCON final in January. His side won the game 1-0, only for the result against Morocco to be overturned. There is a possibility he will add a Champions League and German Cup winners’ medal to the Bundesliga title Bayern Munich have already secured. Jackson plays in a position that is one of the most coveted in the game and commands large sums. Manchester United paid an initial €76.5million for Benjamin Sesko last year, while Arsenal agreed a fee of €63.5million (plus €10m in add-ons) with Sporting CP for Viktor Gyokeres. When you consider that Chelsea are very unlikely to have the revenue from Champions League competition next season, cashing in on players such as Jackson will help fund other purchases. That is not to say Chelsea have made their minds up just yet. They are in the process of finding a new head coach, and Jackson is the same as all transfers, both in and out. The club will want to run things past the new head coach before making any big calls. One of the coaches on Chelsea’s wish list is Andoni Iraola, who wanted to sign Jackson for Bournemouth in January 2023. There is a possibility that he and other candidates will want him to be part of their squad. Jackson may have frustrated Chelsea fans with his finishing at times, but the team have missed him. Liam Delap, one of the forwards bought to replace Jackson, has scored just three times in 43 appearances since joining from Ipswich Town for £30m. Cole Palmer has lacked spark in 2025-26, mainly due to discomfort caused by a groin injury. But he also had a great partnership with Jackson, the two combining to set each other up on 15 occasions in 75 games. That is once every five matches. In saying that, Joao Pedro has thrived as the main target man. He is Chelsea’s leading scorer this season, with 19 goals. The club also further signalled their intention to move on from Jackson by agreeing a deal with Strasbourg last September to buy Emmanuel Emega in view of him joining this summer. There is always the potential of another loan, possibly with another option/obligation to buy involved. But that feels more like a last resort at this stage. Jackson’s future was a major talking point at Chelsea in the summer of 2025. It looks like history is about to repeat itself. Spot the pattern. 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