What happens if Liverpool miss out on the Champions League?

AFC BournemouthArsenalAston VillaBrentfordBrighton & Hove AlbionBurnleyChelseaCrystal PalaceEvertonFulhamLeeds UnitedLiverpoolManchester CityManchester UnitedNewcastle UnitedNottingham ForestSunderlandTottenham HotspurWest Ham UnitedWolverhampton WanderersScores & ScheduleStandingsFantasyThe Athletic FC NewsletterPodcastsArsenal vs. Burnley ReactionsPL's Biggest Talking PointsChelsea's Power ShiftWhat Football Thinks of EmeryLiverpool’s Failing to make next season's Champions League would have serious repercussions for Liverpool Carl Recine/Getty Images Share articleNot so long ago, Liverpool looked certain to cruise into next season’s Champions League. Now, things are getting tense. Simply avoiding defeat at Aston Villa on Friday would have been enough to secure the necessary top-five finish, but a 4-2 thrashing means head coach Arne Slot and his players — already under pressure following what has been a poor Premier League title defence and off-field turmoil — are facing a potentially anxious few days. Failure to secure what has in recent years become their customary place in Europe’s elite club competition for next season would represent both a sporting and financial setback, with implications for summer player recruitment and Liverpool’s wider direction under the U.S. ownership of Fenway Sports Group (FSG). The Athletic looks ahead to an enormous week, and lays out why being in the Champions League is so crucial for the Anfield side. It is still unlikely Liverpool fail to qualify for next season’s Champions League, but it’s far from impossible. After Brighton & Hove Albion slipped out of the race with defeat away to Leeds United on Sunday, there’s now only one team applying pressure — in-form Bournemouth, who are four points behind Slot’s team. Tonight (Tuesday), they are at home to Manchester City, and essentially need a win to keep alive their bid to gatecrash the party around UEFA’s top table. A draw will probably not be enough, as Andoni Iraola’s south-coast side would then need to beat Nottingham Forest away in the concluding round of league fixtures on Sunday and have Liverpool simultaneously lose at home to Brentford, with the two results also sufficiently altering the Anfield club’s goal-difference advantage (+10 versus +4). Although winning the match appears to be a tough ask with City having to beat them to take the title race to Sunday, Bournemouth are on the longest unbeaten run in Europe’s top five domestic leagues (16 games, going back to January 3) and will have added motivation in wanting to send Iraola, their inspirational head coach, off with a home victory before he leaves the club this summer after three years to seek a new challenge. It all makes Liverpool’s position more precarious than they would wish it to be. If they do beat Brentford — who are eighth and also pursuing European football — then qualification is guaranteed, but after the season they’ve had, relying on the outgoing champions to get the job done is a dangerous game. Up until this point of his second season as head coach, FSG has backed Slot and is prepared to continue that support into next season. As reported by The Athletic, senior figures at Liverpool believe that his 2024-25 debut year’s Premier League title win and mitigating factors this time including injuries, new players taking time to settle and the tragic death of the club’s Portugal international forward Diogo Jota in a car accident last summer all suggest giving the Dutchman more time. But the anger being expressed by supporters recently will crank to new heights if Liverpool do miss out on the Champions League, especially if it comes on the back of another defeat (which would be their 13th in the 38 league matches and 20th overall). To be sweating on the results of others and nervously looking over their shoulder — and from fifth place — at this stage of a season is embarrassing enough for Liverpool. To hear those boos, see the empty seats at Anfield late in games because fans have given up and headed for the exits and read of departing club legend Mohamed Salah so openly criticising the problems only adds to the edginess. Fan and player discontent (as suggested by so many squad members apparently endorsing Salah’s recent social-media post grumbling about the team’s style of play), coupled with a failure to achieve the bare-minimum requirement this season, would surely make Slot’s position untenable. For Liverpool, the difference between another Champions League campaign and dropping into the second-tier Europa League is vast. In the Champions League, £2.47billion ($3.3bn at the current rate) is distributed among the 36 competing clubs each season, compared to just £565m to the same number of teams in the Europa League. For Liverpool, this would mean a deficit of at least £80m. Then there are all the extras, such as matchday revenue and sponsorship deals, which are far more lucrative when competing in the Champions League. According to the club’s accounts, Liverpool’s UEFA prize-money earnings jumped from £23million when in the 2023-24 Europa League to £82.5m on their return to the Champions League for 2024-25, and the books are expected to show an increase to around £94m having been part of the latter again this season. Even the winners of this season’s Europa League, for example, will receive ‘only’ around £36m. At this stage, an exact number cannot be put on the value of qualifying, because the full figure depends on a club’s performance in the competition. But the basic point is clear: not qualifying at all means a big financial shortfall. With a rising wage bill (a record £427.7million in their most recent accounts, up 11 per cent on the previous year), growing operating costs and a heavy recent transfer spend (£449m last summer, the most ever by an English club, albeit offset by some sales), such a setback would be detrimental to Liverpool’s longer-term plans. FSG runs a self-sustainable model with a sharp focus on competing in the Champions League. Liverpool are a well-managed operation from a business point of view and would be able to withstand the financial hit, but not for long. When they last missed out on UEFA’s marquee tournament, for the 2023-24 edition, it coincided with a club-record pre-tax loss, even though overall revenues actually grew that season. The most recent set of accounts, for 2024-25, showed how the club booked a £15.2million profit, their best results since the 2018-19 season and a first profitable year in three. Revenue shot up £89m, and 15 per cent, to £702.7m — a club record, so being denied another year at European club football’s deepest money trough would be a huge blow after the hard work of recent years. window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}}); Given its operating model, it stands to reason that FSG would seek to offset the financial damage of missing out on the Champions League by cutting back elsewhere, and the easiest way to do that is to either sell players (not as easy as it might sound, given Liverpool’s squad is not replete with expendable assets who could be sold for big fees) or lower the spend on incomings. This summer was never going to be like 12 months ago, when Liverpool recruited heavily on players they thought were ready to immediately take the team to a new level. A deal for Jeremie Frimpong was secured early and plans to bring in Florian Wirtz and Milos Kerkez were also well underway at this time last year. Adding Alexander Isak — their most expensive buy of the lot — took a little longer but the resources were there, and that allowed them flexibility. window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}}); With qualification still on the line with a game to go, Liverpool have been unable to accelerate their summer plans in a similar way this time and are still weighing up the cost of possible signings and whether they will be able to attack the transfer market again from a position of strength. Slot said last week that he believes next season’s results will be better if they can strengthen the squad. Only time will tell if that comes true, but without the extensive money which comes with being in the Champions League, doing so will be an almighty challenge. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms