Washington’s Biggest Weapons Against Iran Are Pressure And Patience

BusinessAerospace & DefenseWashington’s Biggest Weapons Against Iran Are Pressure And PatienceByIlan Berman,Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Ilan Berman writes about the Middle East and Eurasia.Follow AuthorMay 18, 2026, 10:42am EDT--:-- / --:--This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.(Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP via Getty Images)AFP via Getty ImagesThe Iran war seems to have devolved into a waiting game. Last month, after weeks of Iranian threats to energy transit in the Strait of Hormuz, the Trump administration flipped the script and imposed a blockade on the Strait to counteract Tehran’s efforts to manipulate the waterway. Since then, the status of the Strait – through which a fifth of global energy passes – has effectively been frozen, even as the Iranian regime has taken steps (like establishing a new maritime authority to extort transiting vessels) to tighten its grip there. This state of affairs has led many to conclude that the conflict has become a stalemate of sorts – or, worse still, that the United States has already lost outright. Perhaps the most extreme example of this came from Robert Kagan of the Brookings Institution, whoopined recently in the pages of The Atlantic that Trump had effectively suffered a “total defeat” at the hands of the Iranian regime – and that that “checkmate” will be catastrophic for America’s long-term credibility. Kagan might eventually be proven right. For the moment, though, his gloomy diagnosis is decidedly premature, and the economic realities tell us why. Energy exports are the lifeblood of the Iranian regime, accounting for some 15-20 percent of the country’s total GDP. Before the blockade was imposed, Iran was producing and shipping an estimated 2.1 million barrels a day. The U.S. blockade has now slashed that output by approximately 75 percent, a constriction that experts say is costing the regime on the...