War is over for Wall Street, while oil drags down bonds and gold

BusinessInternationalWar is over for Wall Street, while oil drags down bonds and goldBy Reuters -Apr 15, 2026As the conflict in the Middle East edges towards its eighth week, financial markets are starting to diverge. US stocks have wiped out all the losses incurred since the start of the war, ​but oil prices are still punishingly high, dragging on both government bonds and gold. There are dramatic disparities in emerging markets too. Brazilian markets have surged and China’s have ‌seen healthy inflows, but a number of smaller, energy-dependent economies are struggling. “The US can manage an oil shock of this duration, though Asia is more exposed,” said Markus Hansen, portfolio manager at Vontobel, who said he had been using the selloff to pick up some cheaper stocks. He said, however, that higher oil prices would lead central banks to push back interest rate cuts. A SHINING STOCK MARKET ON A HILL The U.S. benchmark S&P 500  index has recovered to pre-war levels, ​rallying 9% from a March 30 low. The index finished Monday at 6,886.24, above its February 27 close just before the U.S. and Israel began airstrikes in Iran. Last week’s ceasefire and hopes peace ​talks will resume are helping. On top of that, Citi and have turned bullish on US equities, flagging expectations for resilient corporate earnings, particularly in tech. It’s ⁠a dramatic bounce-back. March marked the index’s biggest monthly fall since April 2025’s tariff turmoil. The VIX volatility index – Wall Street’s so-called “fear gauge” – is back to pre-war levels after spiking to a more than 10-month ​high last month. Stock market volatility has proven a boon for brokers. Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan first-quarter earnings were helped by greater trading income. PHYSICALLY COMPLICATED Oil prices are below their March highs, but at around $100 a barrel , they ​are still some 40% above where they were in late February. More worryingly for the real economy, refiners are paying more than $140 a barrel for No...