UK smoking ban explained from vape rules to 'black market' and New Zealand u-turn

A strict new smoking ban will now be implemented in the UK, but how will it work, and what will it mean for society in Britain going forward? Under new rules laid out in the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, which now just needs Royal Assent to become law, individuals born after January 1, 2009, will never be able to purchase cigarettes legally in the UK. It's hoped by this measure, welcomed alongside a set of new nicotine products regulations, will herald a new "smoke-free generation", improving health and relieving the NHS of a crushing burden. For many, this is a welcome and long-overdue development, which should, in time, eliminate one of the leading causes of preventable death in the UK. According to a sobering analysis released by Cancer Research UK, it's estimated that tobacco causes the death of one person in the UK every five minutes, and is responsible for 55,000 cancer deaths annually. Just as it was with the 2007 ban on smoking in pubs, this measure will change society as we know it. So what can we expect? Interestingly, with the January 1, 2009 date specified, this means peers within the same class and indeed friendship group will face very different laws. While a youngster born in September 2008 will still be able to purchase a packet of cigarettes, retailers serving their friends born after New Year's Day 2009 could face a fixed penalty notice of £200. Association of Convenience Stores: ACS chief executive Ed Woodall said: "The Tobacco and Vapes Bill will introduce several major operational changes for retailers, including a new system of age checking for tobacco products. We're supporting retailers, shopworkers and customers to understand this change through our Decline09 campaign with one simple message: If you were born on or after 1st January 2009, you cannot purchase tobacco products." It's feared that, with the onus on retailers, already struggling shopkeepers may now face fresh anxieties when serving those of the same generation, with a matter of mere months making all the difference. Maxwell Marlow, Director of Public Affairs at the Adam Smith Institute, told the Mirror : "The onus on sellers is particularly difficult - the retail industry has been clear that it is uncomfortable implementing this ban on behalf of the government, as staff fear the abuse they will inevitably receive when denying a 37-year-old cigarettes, even if a 38-year-old is free to buy them. Likewise, Welsh Trading Standards published a long and well-considered opposition document to the Bill, citing enforceability concerns, but was forced to remove it, most likely due to political pressure." Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, Wes Streeting, hailed this as an historic moment for the nation's health, declaring "Prevention is better than cure – this reform will save lives, ease pressure on the NHS, and build a healthier Britain." However, there are those who have concerns about the emergence of a Black Market, with the prohibition era days of the US providing a cautionary tale. Between the years 1920 and 1933, it was illegal to produce, import, transport, or sell alcoholic beverages, with disastrous consequences. Far from improving the nation's health, these measures instead contribute to the creation of a booming black market, with homemade liquor sold on the quiet, wiping out many Americans. Historian Michael Lerner told PBS : "The trade in unregulated alcohol had serious consequences for public health. As the trade in illegal alcohol became more lucrative, the quality of alcohol on the black market declined. On average, 1000 Americans died every year during the Prohibition from the effects of drinking tainted liquor." Just last month, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) expressed concern after analysis of HMRC figures revealed that legal tobacco sales fell by 52 per cent in the UK between 2021 and 2025 but the number of smokers has not fallen in line with that. Noting that the "downward trajectory of legal cigarette sales has been far steeper than that of the number of smokers", the IEA concluded that there was indeed "a large and growing market for illicit cigarettes", driven by smokers "priced out of the legitimate market by taxation". While the grave health risks associated with legal cigarettes are widely known, counterfeit smokes may be even more dangerous. According to the London Tobacco Alliance, such products "contain higher levels of harmful chemicals than legally sold tobacco", while "production and distribution are often linked to criminal gangs who engage in other illegal activities such as human trafficking and drug smuggling". Some experts now fear that this new legislation could exacerbate matters. Mr Marlow told us: "There is already a significant black market in tobacco. Legal cigarette sales fell from 40.6 billion sticks in 2021 to 19.8 billion in 2025, a far steeper drop than any plausible decline in smoking prevalence (Smoking Toolkit Study has daily smoking in England at 10.6 per cent in 2025 vs 11.4 per cent in 2021). This will undoubtedly worsen the problem, as we treat a growing generation's interaction with tobacco the same way we treat illegal drugs (which already have a significant black market)." It's also unavoidable that we are looking at a generation who have grown up around synthetic scented vapes, which continue to rise in popularity. While vapes don't contain the more harmful chemicals in tobacco smoke, such as tar and carbon monoxide, they cannot be described as safe to use. While the full impact of these still relatively new products is yet to become apparent, there have been documented instances of Vaping side effects and lung injuries, with patients exhibiting symptoms like coughing, chest pain, and shortness of breath. As per UK Addiction Treatment Centres, between the years 2020 and 2023, there were 233 recorded NHS hospital admissions where vaping was the primary cause, plus 941 cases where vaping was found to be either the primary or secondary cause. Worryingly, this modern alternative to cigarettes, which involves users breathing in a chemical cocktail of additives, has proven attractive to young people. According to Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) , approximately seven per cent of 11 to 17-year-olds say that they currently vape, while 20 per cent have tried vaping. Under new measures, vaping products will be restricted in packaging and flavouring, but won't be banned. Concerns have now been raised that this will create 'generation vape', with other alternative tobacco products becoming more prevalent in the absence of cigarettes. Mr Marlow remarked: "Restrictions on vaping products should concern public health practitioners, as vaping, nicotine pouches, and heated tobacco have all proven incredibly effective in helping people quit cigarettes (including yours truly!). We need to allow smokers more choice, not less, so the new regulations on flavours and marketing must be withdrawn." He added: "Data from ASH shows that vaping and smoking uptake has stabilised amongst younger people, which should be welcomed, and this trend is likely to continue. Nonetheless, if people still choose to consume nicotine, those prevented from legally buying cigarettes will likely turn to black market tobacco, vapes, or other nicotine products." There are, however, those who are more optimistic on this point, including Professor Sarah Jackson, Professorial Research Fellow, UCL Tobacco and Alcohol Research Group. Professor Jackson told us: "The concern about a 'generation vape' is understandable, but it’s important to distinguish between absolute risk and relative harm. While vaping is not risk-free, the evidence to date suggests it is substantially less harmful than smoking." She continued: "The priority of this policy is to prevent smoking initiation, which remains the leading cause of avoidable disease and death. In terms of industry behaviour, history suggests that the tobacco industry adapts quickly to regulatory change. That's why strong regulation, surveillance, and product standards will remain important, alongside monitoring how products evolve and are used, particularly among young people." In terms of learning from history, the UK has a very recent example in terms of the Maldives, which is only slightly ahead of us in terms of a smoking ban for youngsters. Back in November, it was announced that the Maldives was set to become the first country on Earth to enforce a generational ban on tobacco, preventing young people born on or after January 1, 2007, from purchasing cigarettes. Just one year before, the small Asian country had made it illegal for those of any age to import, sell, possess, use or distribute electronic cigarettes and vaping products. Holidaymakers travelling to the Indian Ocean archipelago have been urged to remember that this new legislation also applies to them, while Ahmed Afaal, vice chair of the Maldives' tobacco control board, has hit back at the notion that these laws could affect tourism. Mr Afaal told BBC World Service's Newshour programme at the time: "People don't come to the Maldives because they're able to smoke. They come for the beaches, they come for the sea, they come for the sun, and they come for the fresh air." Citing tourism data, Mr Afaal asserted that there had been no tourist cancellations and that the number of arrivals had in fact grown over the past year. He added: "We're projecting more than 2m [tourists] in the next year." The current discussion over the smoking ban will likely sound very familiar to those in New Zealand, who, just a few short years ago, were set to introduce something very similar. In June 2022, New Zealand's Labour government, led by then- Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, introduced the Smokefree Environments and Regulated Products (Smoked Tobacco) Amendment Bill in parliament. This would have initially prohibited the sale of smoking tobacco products to those born on or after January 1, 2009, as part of a wider aim on the part of the government to create a smoke-free population, defined, as is the case in the UK, as a population where less than five per cent of people are smokers. While these restrictions were set to be rolled out from January 1, 2027, onwards, everything changed following Arden's resignation in January 2023. The new National Party-led government opted to reverse this policy, in what proved to be a shock U-turn, with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announcing that tax revenues from continued sales would be used to fund tax reductions. The centre-right party also cited fears over the potential creation of an unregulated, untaxed black market, that could hurt retailers and line the pockets of criminals. Considering whether we could see a similar backtrack in the UK, Mr Marlow reflected: "There are two ways this piece of legislation goes in the future. A future, sensible minister will repeal this legislation because it is unworkable, overly complicated, and will drive the black market (as happened where de facto tobacco bans occurred in South Africa, Bhutan, and Australia ), or there will be a flat-out ban on tobacco, as Lord Bethell attempted to amend the Bill. "If we follow the evidence of where significant black market tobacco problems exist, as mentioned previously, we should not implement this bill and should repeal it. There are also moral arguments, such as the freedom to consume tobacco and damage oneself without government overreach, but the two previous governments have been highly authoritarian and care little about these matters." On this same topic, Professor Jackson said: "It's important to be clear that New Zealand’s recent policy reversal related to a much broader package of measures, including reductions in nicotine levels and significant reductions in retail availability, rather than a smokefree generation-style policy alone. The UK context is different, and this legislation builds on a long history of tobacco control policies that have already reduced smoking rates over time. As with any tobacco control policy, concerns around illicit markets and enforcement are valid and should be taken seriously. However, international evidence suggests that strong regulation, including measures such as changes to the legal age of sale, can be implemented effectively when supported by appropriate enforcement and ongoing monitoring." According to NHS England, smoking-related illnesses set the NHS in England back by around £2.5 billion to £2.6 billion every single year, with expenditure covering hospital admissions, GP appointments, and smoking-related treatments for diseases. Furthermore, lost productivity due to smoking heaps on an additional annual economic burden of more than £13 billion. It's a steep sum, but will this new legislation really balance the books? In a piece penned for the IEA, author Christopher Snowdon pointed out that the £10billion received in the form of tobacco duties is "real money" when compared to intangible costs and private costs to smokers of the £17 billion figure quoted at the time the policy was first proposed. Mr Snowdon wrote: "The reality is that smokers pay far more in tobacco duty than they cost the state in healthcare". Commenting on this, Mr Marlow shared: " For my own thoughts, smoking incurs additional costs, including lost productivity and illness. However, we also cannot forget that the government is introducing a Vaping Excise Duty to offset the loss in tobacco duty revenue; thus, the government does treat nicotine-users as cash cows, and I do not think it will be able to balance the books here." Offering her own perspective on how this huge shift may pay out, Professor Jackson considered: "It’s difficult to give a precise figure for NHS savings from this specific legislation at this stage, as the long-term impact will depend on how smoking rates change over time and how effectively the policy is implemented alongside wider tobacco control measures. However, we know that smoking already costs the NHS billions annually, so even modest reductions in smoking prevalence are likely to translate into substantial long-term health benefits and cost savings.” Do you have a story to share? Email me at julia.banim@reachplc.com