UFC 327 odds, predictions: Jiri Prochazka, Carlos Ulberg battle for light heavyweight title

Jiří Procházka takes on Carlos Ulberg for the light heavyweight championship in UFC 237. Harry How / Getty Images Share full articleWe have an insane, high-action card this weekend for UFC 327 that features Jiří Procházka and Carlos Ulberg in the main event. I’ll be breaking down that championship fight, as well as two more high-variance matchups from the slate. If you want to chat about any other fights, feel free to leave a comment. The vacant light heavyweight title is on the line Saturday night as Jiří Procházka and Carlos Ulberg slug it out until one man goes down. Procházka has excelled with that style so far, and with the exception of Alex Pereira, has always been the one left standing. Procházka now holds a 6-2 record in the UFC with all eight fights ending inside the distance. His chaotic, forward-pressure style has turned him into a real fan favorite. While I wouldn’t classify defense as one of Procházka’s specialties, he’s shown a consistent ability to step on the gas pedal in the mid-rounds, wear his opponent down and break them. In fact, Procházka has yet to win by first-round knockout, but he has three victories in Round 2, two in Round 3, and one in Round 5. His two losses have also come in the second round. Despite the enjoyable optics of his matchups, I don’t think Procházka is a particularly trustworthy fighter from an analytical sense. He lands 5.69 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.60 per minute with a 45 percent defensive rate. He’s offensively creative and dangerous, but he’s quite hittable, and he’s been hurt numerous times. It’s arguably his cardio that has allowed his chaotic style to work, even in fights he’s losing. But his hands-down, semi-reckless style typically gives opponents a high offensive floor early in the fight, which has always been a concern of mine. Meanwhile, Ulberg is a technical kickboxer from the City Kickboxing camp, who’s been on a sick run of wins himself. Ulberg lost his UFC debut to Kennedy Nzechukwu in 2021, but has won nine consecutive fights, including six inside the distance. I love the adjustments Ulberg has made throughout his career. That debut was concerning because Ulberg fought at a pace which he could not keep up. He landed an incredible 83 significant strikes in the first round alone, but got tired and allowed the pressure of Nzechukwu to close the distance, where he took some damage and fell. Since then, Ulberg has fought much more patiently. He has still secured a bunch of quick knockout wins, including over Dominick Reyes in his last matchup. He’s perfectly fine to strike at a mid-pace, win some rounds and win a decision. His metrics are solid as well, landing 6.54 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.04 per minute with a 51 percent defensive rate. He has had competitive fights with Jan Błachowicz and Volkan Oezdemir, but nobody in the UFC thus far has been able to outland him numerically. I think this is a great matchup, and also a super high-variance one. I don’t have a strong opinion on who wins. Procházka is lined anywhere from -125 to -110 depending on where you look, so the matchup is competitive on paper. I lean slightly toward Ulberg being the value side. I think Ulberg is more likely to have success early. As the more technical and defensive fighter, he should be able to stay safe for a while. Procházka hasn’t had overwhelming success in rounds in which he hasn’t knocked his opponent down, and Ulberg does well to avoid big damage. Additionally, Ulberg has early knockout upside. Procházka has been hurt badly many times, and an early knockout for Ulberg wouldn’t be a surprise. Procházka also has early knockout upside, but I’d be a little more surprised by that result. It’s fair to favor Procházka because of the one loss we’ve seen from Ulberg. His opponent pressured him, tired him out and knocked him out. In theory, it’s the recipe for success from Procházka. What round that comes in, I’m not sure, but at some point, Procházka will probably throw caution to the wind. A TKO win for him may very well be the final result. But I don’t think Procházka turning on the gas automatically means he will win. Ulberg still carries a high floor of offense and is probably equally likely to knock Procházka out, unless he’s super tired. I also thought Ulberg fared well against Oezdemir in the third round, when Oezdemir tried to pressure him and brawl. So I have some hope that Ulberg has improved since his debut in 2021 and can deal with Procházka’s pressure a bit better. From the props side, I’d look toward either fighter winning by TKO to get the best value, though the moneyline is an easier and safer play if you do want action. Let’s continue down the road of another light heavyweight, high-variance matchup between Dominick Reyes and Johnny Walker. This one is arguably even more of a crapshoot because Reyes and Walker have serious durability concerns. Reyes is coming off a brutal knockout loss against Ulberg, and he’s been knocked out cold three other times, including against Procházka in 2021. The only loss he’s taken that wasn’t a devastating KO was when he almost beat Jon Jones in 2020. On the other side, Walker has shown himself to be even more wild and reckless, which led to some incredible highlight-reel knockouts in his early UFC career. Eventually, his opponents realized that if you just land cleanly, he’ll likely go unconscious, which led to a string of poor results from 2019-22. Walker is actually coming off a solid result over Zhang Mingyang in China, where he was a heavy underdog, but earned a second-round TKO win with some damaging leg kicks that Zhang wasn’t able to withstand. Prior to that, he was knocked out badly by both Oezdemir and Magomed Ankalaev. I kind of like Reyes in this spot, and I still view him as the better fighter of the two. He’s the better boxer in my opinion, and his metrics are better. Reyes lands 5.39 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.49 per minute with a 49 percent defensive rate. It’s not phenomenal, but he’s fought and beaten good competition. He’s won decisions in the UFC before, too, including against Oezdemir and Ovince Saint Preux. Walker feels more moment-based. He’s less consistent minute to minute and is the more likely fighter of the two to win via a random, flying maneuver than he is to actually win rounds. Walker just closed at +290 against Zhang, which tells you the public perception of him. I am definitely worried about the durability of Reyes, but losing to Ulberg is less of an issue to me. Now we’re only getting Reyes at -138. If you told me Reyes did not win by TKO, I’d be less excited to have exposure to him, in which case, betting Reyes to win by TKO is pretty reasonable at +120. I do think he’s the better round winner of the two, probably the better wrestler and still has mild decision equity if something weird happens. Walker feels more likely to win by KO if he wins at all, and he’s lined up at +210 to win by KO on some books. That’s not the worst play in the world. This is arguably too high-variance a spot to invest in with any excitement, but I think Reyes is the superior fighter all-around. If he can close the distance into boxing range, I lean toward him securing an early finish in this fight. The UFC will send Cub Swanson off into retirement with a banger matchup against Nate Landwehr. I’m not one to get excited about retirement fights, and they can often be a bearish signal, but I also think it’s completely matchup dependent, as we just saw with Michael Chiesa, who dominantly won his retirement fight in one minute. Swanson is 42 years old and no longer in his prime, but he still fights well. He is a well-rounded fighter and a decent boxer. He lands 4.79 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.0 per minute with a 59 percent defensive rate. We have seen him trade wins and losses for the majority of his UFC career, but he’s shown solid durability for a fighter with this many fights on his record. Swanson was knocked out by José Aldo back in 2009, but has only been knocked out two other times. One came via a body kick from Giga Chikadze in 2021, and the other came from leg kicks against Jonathan Martinez in 2022. Durability has a wide spectrum, but Swanson seems to be toward the better end of the spectrum, considering his few finishes and how they’ve actually come to fruition. Even as recently as his last matchup, Swanson went toe-to-toe with Billy Quarantillo for two rounds before knocking him out in the third. That’s not an easy win. Swanson is a little bit vulnerable at distance. He’s not as fast as he once was. He’s not the greatest wrestler, but he’s very experienced and still a technical fighter, especially with his hands. Landwehr comes from the Procházka school of fighting, which has also made him a fan favorite, but has led to some devastating knockout losses along the way. In fact, Landwehr has always been known as a fighter who excels in getting beaten up and then coming from behind to win. He came back late to finish Ľudovít Klein in Round 3, which is super impressive. He took a majority decision over David Onama in 2022. It didn’t take long to mount the comeback against Jamall Emmers in 2024, where Landwehr won by knockout at the end of Round 1. His losses show the flip side, though. He was KO’d badly in the first round by both Herbert Burns and Julian Erosa. It’s hard to state just how bad that looks in hindsight. More recently, Dooho Choi battered him on the mat for a mid-round stoppage. In his last bout, Morgan Charrière put Landwehr unconscious in Round 3. Landwehr now lands 5.63 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.83 with a 52 percent defensive rate. I don’t think he’s awful, but he doesn’t mix it up often, barely wrestles and he’s not very fast. I prefer fighters who rely on comeback wins to have top-notch durability, like Marlon Vera. Landwehr has poor durability, which is a major red flag. Somehow, Landwehr is still favored to win this fight, which I guess is an indication of the public’s dislike of Swanson’s retirement. More fairly, you can argue this is just a 50-50 type of matchup. I personally favor Swanson, if only slightly. He’s the better boxer here, and he’s way more defensively sound. He’s also way more durable. I’m not sold that Landwehr can just eat 80 punches to the head and then mount a major comeback. Neither fighter wrestles much, either. I could see both mixing in a takedown, and I’d like it if they did, but it’s hard to project. Especially in a retirement fight, I’m not sure Swanson wants to wrestle. Ultimately, it’s a virtual pick ’em fight for a reason. Swanson is the dog, though, at +100, and he’s my pick to win. I think he has knockout upside, too, and is lined up to +310 on some books to win by knockout. This should be a super fun fight, and I’m expecting more chaos on what’s a brilliant action card from top to bottom. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Brett Appley is a contributor for The Athletic covering the UFC from a betting and daily fantasy perspective. Brett has been a full-time MMA analyst since 2017. He used to be the lead MMA analyst at RotoGrinders and now runs DailyFanMMA.com. Follow Brett on Twitter @BrettAppley