Tuesday briefing: With the horror of conflict throughout the globe, how likely is world war three?

In today’s newsletter: Our diplomatic editor on how global instability feeds into conflict in so many parts of the world, and whether the threshold for a major global war has been met

Good morning. The world is at war. From the trenches of eastern Ukraine to the missile-streaked skies of the Gulf, a growing proportion of humanity is living under the horror of conflict. For some observers, there are gnawing fears that the worst is yet to come. The apparent collapse of the rules-based international order, the irrelevance of institutions designed to uphold it, and the interconnectedness of the fighting have sparked warnings that we could be at the beginning of a third world war. Indeed, half of Britons polled in a recent YouGov survey thought world war three was likely in the next five to 10 years.

On Monday, Donald Trump stepped back from deepening the US and Israel’s war with Iran, announcing that he would postpone military strikes on Iranian power plants for a five-day period after “very good and productive conversations” about the end to the fighting. Iran denied this version of events, claiming Trump had been scared off by their threats of attacks on water infrastructure in the Gulf. But, despite calmer stock markets and a sharp drop in the oil price, there is little sign that the fighting is near an end.

Middle East | The Israeli military said it had launched a new wave of strikes on Tehran, after Donald Trump signalled a pause in US attacks against energy infrastructure after what he said were productive talks with Iran.

UK Politics | Ministers are looking at providing support for household bills next winter, Keir Starmer said, as he suggested the energy price shock unleashed by the Iran conflict could continue for months to come.

London | Security agencies are investigating whether a group linked to Iran is behind an arson attack on four ambulances belonging to a Jewish charity in north London.

Climate crisis | More countries will face critical food insecurity if world heats up by 2C, analysis shows.

New York | The pilot and co-pilot of an Air Canada Express regional jet have been killed after it collided with a fire truck while landing at New York’s LaGuardia airport.

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