Trump: Government of Iran 'seriously fractured'

The government of Iran is "seriously fractured", the reason cited by US President Donald Trump for the US delaying a potential strike on Iran indefinitely.

The US leader stated that the decision was also made after a request from Pakistan’s leadership.

Meanwhile, the US Navy is keeping the Iran blockade in place and the its forces on standby.

“Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured… we have been asked to hold our Attack… I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade… and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted.” 

As the world awaits Iran's response, Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has remained out of public view for more than six weeks, even as the country faces one of the most serious crises of the Islamic Republic era.

That silence has fuelled questions about his health, his location, and how the regime is managing power behind the scenes.

Meanwhile, retired US Army intelligence officer Lt Col Charles DeVore cited "cracks emerging" inside Iran’s leadership — with IRGC factions now openly clashing with the foreign ministry.

Power rift

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), citing sources "familiar with the negotiations", signs of Iran's fractured leadership are starting to emerge.

"The Iranian negotiating team does not have the authority to independently determine Iran’s negotiating positions, however. IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and other senior members of the IRGC have consolidated control and wielded significant influence over the negotiations process thus far," ISW posted.

This, as Iran attempts to establish a protection racket in the Strait of Hormuz, which could help consolidate the IRGC’s control over the strait and gain "leverage" over the US in negotiations.

Iran has reportedly decided to give vessels that pay a “security” fee and adhere to Iranian protocols "priority" to transit through the Hormuz Strait.

On April, the IRGC Navy reportedly forced two Indian oil tankers attempting to transit through the strait to change course.

A number of other vessels that intended to transit through the strait have turned around.

The US response to IRGC's sealing of Hormuz: a naval blockade, imposed on April 13.

Dozens of Iran in-bound and outbound vessels have been turned back, a move that forms part of a broader US campaign to pressure Tehran following the failed negotiations.

US forces disabled a commercial ship bound for Bandar Abbas that tried to run the blockade, while Marines boarded an Iran-linked tanker in the Indian Ocean.

The US Central Command have deployed thousands of personnel and multiple warships to enforce the operation, warning that vessels attempting to breach it could be intercepted or seized.

Iran, however, has signalled it may respond by disrupting shipping lanes across the Arabian Gulf and nearby waters, while the Houthis threatened to shutdown Bab Al Mandab — raising fears of wider economic fallout and potential military escalation.

Bigger picture

Separate reports have suggested that Khamenei may be injured and not fully capable of appearing in public.

A CNN source said he suffered a fractured foot, a bruised left eye and minor facial lacerations in the same wave of strikes that killed his father and senior military commanders.

Reuters later reported, citing unnamed sources, that he has been joining meetings by audio and weighing in on war-related decisions and talks with Washington.

Those reports point to a leadership model that is still functioning, but in a more hidden and controlled way than under his father.

That in itself is politically significant, because the Islamic Republic depends heavily on the image of a strong, visible supreme leader at the centre of decision-making.

Bigger picture

Th ISW says the lack of public appearances by Mojtaba can be read in several ways: possible injury, security concerns, internal power management, or a deliberate effort to reduce exposure during wartime.

It may also reflect a regime trying to avoid projecting weakness at a moment when rivals, domestic critics and even hardliners will be watching closely for signs of instability.

For Iran, the supreme leader is the core of the system, so uncertainty around his condition quickly becomes uncertainty around the regime’s durability, its command structure and its ability to handle war, diplomacy and succession at the same time.