Trump already has good reason to declare victory in the Gulf. But will it be in time to save him?

Published: 15:04, 24 April 2026 | Updated: 15:04, 24 April 2026 Amid the on-off, stop-start torture of the US-Iran negotiations, the disastrous closure of the world's premier shipping route for oil and fertiliser, and the threat of widening conflict across the region, there is one piece of good news. The American mid-term elections will take place in November, and with his poll ratings continuing to drop, President Trump will be obliged to bring the conflict to a halt at some point, perhaps sooner rather than later. Right now, with the US and Iran locked in standoff, the president declares he's in no 'rush' to end the war.  Maybe. But he needs the price of oil and the cost of living to ease before he goes to the polls. US voters don't like paying $4 a gallon for fuel and show growing signs of resenting the billions spent blowing up Iranian infrastructure. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a disaster for world trade President Trump says he's in no rush to end the conflict. But his poll ratings are sliding Taxi drivers and bankers alike will breathe a sigh of relief. But will the 47th president? Sure, he will declare victory, perhaps after another bout of bombing. There might even be a deal - or the appearance of one - to wave at the American public. But if he folds his tent and simply walks away, Trump will leave behind a Strait of Hormuz which remains blocked to world trade; a vicious Iranian regime more deeply entrenched than ever; and quantities of enriched uranium - the key component for making a bomb - which the US had explicitly vowed to seize. Can this be categorized as any sort of victory? Well, surprising as it might seem, the answer could be yes. First, the dust has yet to settle on the true scale of the damage inflicted on Iran, which is likely to be a good deal greater than understood so far. It is a mistake to simply accept the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' assessment of the situation and to claim that, simply by surviving, the Mullahs have won. If nothing else, Trump will be able to say that he has answered Israel's call for help against a regime bent on wiping it out; that he has severely degraded Iran's military capabilities; that he has smashed a key ally of China; and that he has destroyed Tehran's nuclear program or, at least, delayed it for years if not decades. Ships and small boats ply the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman An Iranian propaganda picture supposedly showing soldiers seizing a container ship A woman member of the Basij paramilitary, affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard, holds her gun during a state-organized rally in support of the supreme leader Moreover, the interruption to oil supplies from the Persian Gulf will benefit American producers, who are net exporters and who, in the case of the frackers, need high world prices to turn a profit. There is also some context to this: America is starting to lose interest in the Gulf and, in my view, will either withdraw in the next few years or come close to it. If the US no longer has to station the Bahrain-based 5th Fleet in the region, the economic benefit will be considerable. As the for the US economy, my view is that it will start to ramp up when all this is over, bringing relative prosperity to Trump's final two years. These are all messages Trump's midwestern voters will welcome.  But if, as many believe, Gulf-induced inflation takes some time to clear, a 'victory' cannot come soon enough for the GOP. Time is of the essence. The president says he has plenty to work with: let's see. The comments below have not been moderated. The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline. By posting your comment you agree to our house rules. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual We will automatically post your comment and a link to the news story to your Facebook timeline at the same time it is posted on MailOnline. To do this we will link your MailOnline account with your Facebook account. We’ll ask you to confirm this for your first post to Facebook. You can choose on each post whether you would like it to be posted to Facebook. Your details from Facebook will be used to provide you with tailored content, marketing and ads in line with our Privacy Policy.