Triple lock 10 per cent warning as Iran war could spike inflation

Triple lock 10 per cent warning as Iran war could spike inflationState pension payments go up each April in line with the triple lock policyCommentsMoneyNicholas Dawson11:22, 12 Apr 2026View 2 ImagesState pension payments go up in line with the triple lock(Image: Getty)The triple lock mechanism could deliver another substantial boost to the state pension next April. State pension payments underwent an increase of 4.8 per cent in April thanks to the policy.‌The Government measure ensures that payments increase each April in line with whichever is highest - whether it is 2.5 per cent, the growth in average earnings, or inflation. This has led to some significant pay rises in recent years, including a record 10.1 per cent boost in April 2023.‌That was driven by soaring inflation, as the impact of the Ukraine war triggered sharp spikes in energy and broader cost-of-living costs. Now the Iran conflict has already pushed up oil prices and may cause longer-term rises to the cost of living over the coming months, raising questions about whether there could be another substantial state pension increase next April.‌Not the base case todayJinesh Vohra, CEO of mortgage cashback app Sprive, shared his views on this. He said: "If inflation were to re-accelerate materially by the September 2026 reading, that would feed directly into next year's uprating calculation. But a 10.1 per cent style increase is not the base case today."He examined the latest data and what this could mean for the months ahead. The expert said: "The latest official CPI reading was 3.0 per cent in February, and before the latest escalation, the Bank of England expected inflation to fall to 2.1 per cent in the second quarter.State Pensioners to face major tax change‌"So a much bigger pension rise next year is possible only if this shock proves severe enough to push inflation far above where it was expected to go." He also pointed to the more immediate financial effects people are...