Tough Outlook For New North America Trade Agreement As Deadline Nears

InnovationTransportationTough Outlook For New North America Trade Agreement As Deadline NearsByEd Garsten,Senior Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Ed Garsten is a metro Detroit-based reporter who covers autos/mobilityFollow AuthorMay 27, 2026, 01:54pm EDT--:-- / --:--This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.Negotiators are working to hammer out an updated trade agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico.gettyThe odds are against reaching a new trade agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico before the U.S. midterm elections and any such pact would include tariffs, according to an analysis by S&P Global Mobility. That bleak prediction comes as the negotiators for the three nations are fighting a July 1 deadline to complete a mandatory review of the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement, or USMCA, that’s been in place since July 1, 2020, replacing the North America Free Trade Agreement. At the same time, the United Auto Workers union has made a list of demands it wants included in an updated version of the trilateral trade agreement. “We believe that there's at least a 40% chance of a trade agreement, probably well before the U.S. midterms, as the pressure starts to build, not only for the U.S., but for both Mexico and Canada to come to an agreement,” said Michael Robinet, vice president of forecasting, S&P Global Mobility during an online presentation to members of the Automotive Press Association on Wednesday. That was a best-case scenario, illustrated in the chart below, descending to a 30% of an extension of the review period to mid-2027, a 10% chance of shifting to bilateral agreements with Mexico and Canada, all the way down to a 5% chance of ending the agreement, reverting to installing most favored nations tariffs. MORE FOR YOUIn the middle, at 15% is something Robinet termed a “zombie” agreement. Chart showing S&P Global Mob...