The numbers are clear - Chelsea missing out on Europe would be perfect for Xabi Alonso

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The tussle Chelsea now find themselves in is with Brighton and Hove Albion, Brentford and Sunday’s opponents, Sunderland, with several potential outcomes in play: According to Opta’s supercomputer, Chelsea’s likeliest finishing position is eighth (39.7 per cent), though they still have a chance of seventh (27.4 per cent). But which outcome should incoming manager Xabi Alonso be rooting for? My colleague Simon Johnson has already done a good job of analysing the pros and cons of Chelsea being in Europe in 2026-27. The data from recent history is very clear: having no continental commitments to clutter his midweeks would be a huge benefit to Alonso next term. Since the start of 2015-16, there have been six instances of traditional ‘Big Six’ clubs (yes, this framing could look ludicrous if Tottenham are relegated this weekend, but in terms of financial resources and squad strength, it remains the best form of comparison to Chelsea) falling out of European competition entirely. It has happened to Chelsea twice and once apiece to Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool and Spurs. The two Chelsea instances are 2016-17 and 2023-24, which immediately followed their two worst finishes of the Premier League era (10th in 2015-16 and 12th in 2022-23). Antonio Conte won the title in emphatic fashion in 2016-17, racking up 93 points. Mauricio Pochettino missed out on Champions League qualification in 2023-24 and left the following summer, but he still improved the team by six places and 19 points. Liverpool jumped from eighth to fourth without European competition in Jurgen Klopp’s first full season as manager in 2016-17. Arsenal jumped from eighth to fifth without European competition under Mikel Arteta in 2021-22. Tottenham did the same under Ange Postecoglou in 2023-24. Manchester United have made the most of a lack of continental distractions this season and sit third under Michael Carrick, 12 places higher than they finished in 2024-25. In all of those six instances, the clubs involved made significant and often huge jumps in both Premier League position and points the following year. On average, the gain for a ‘Big Six’ club in a season without any form of European football is six spots in the table and 19.7 points. The sporting advantages of a season out of continental competition are well established. A more forgiving schedule means less travel, more recovery, and more time to train. But the fact that these seasons tend to follow an annus horribilis also make them the perfect scenario for an incoming coach. Player and supporter morale is generally at its nadir and, on as well as off the pitch, there tends to be plenty of low-hanging fruit to pick that drives immediate improvement — improvement for which the new man in the dugout gets the bulk of the credit. But what if the likeliest outcome happens and Chelsea finish eighth, securing a return to the Conference League? Because of the competition’s relative youth there have only been two instances when ‘Big Six’ clubs have dropped into the Conference League: Tottenham in 2021-22 and Chelsea in 2024-25. Both were still able to meaningfully improve their Premier League position and points tally to secure a Champions League spot: Spurs jumped from seventh to fourth under Conte, while Chelsea rose from sixth to fourth under Maresca. It is easy to understand why. The standard of the Conference League is not high enough to significantly stress a ‘Big Six’ squad or rise up the priority list until the very late stages. Chelsea won the tournament despite not playing anything approaching their strongest XI until the final against Real Betis. Wholesale rotation from weekend to midweek is a viable policy, meaning that, for your Premier League starters, the situation is barely any different from a season out of Europe entirely. This would appear to be a very manageable situation for Alonso if it comes to pass. Europa League participation is a slightly less straightforward case. There have been eight instances of ‘Big Six’ clubs dropping from the Champions League into Europe’s second-tier club competition since the start of 2015-16, yielding mixed Premier League results. Chelsea improved from fifth to third under Maurizio Sarri in 2018-19, while finishing as Europa League winners. Arsenal dropped from fifth to sixth in Arsene Wenger’s final season in 2017-18. United did the same in 2016-17 under Jose Mourinho despite earning three more points than the year before, but also won the Europa League. United then jumped from sixth to third under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in 2019-20 despite not increasing their points tally. They made the same position leap while winning 17 more points under Erik Ten Hag in 2022-23, but then came the Ruben Amorim exception: a catastrophic drop from eighth to 15th in 2024-25, compounded by Europa League final defeat to Spurs. Tottenham actually fell from sixth to seventh in the Premier League in their season with Europa League football in 2020-21, and Mourinho paid for it with his job the week before the Carabao Cup final. Liverpool jumped from fifth to third under Klopp in 2023-24, improving by 15 points. From the evidence above, it is at least very possible to balance Europa League football with a successful Champions League qualification push, and in some cases even end up with a European trophy to lift at the end of it. Chelsea’s recent history carries no small pressure for Alonso here: they have only competed in the Europa League (in its modern incarnation) twice, in 2012-13 and 2018-19, and won the tournament both times. Alonso will surely back himself to succeed at Stamford Bridge next season, regardless of what happens at the Stadium of Light on Sunday, and the Europa League or Conference League could give him a solid chance of ending his first campaign as Chelsea manager with silverware. But a year out of Europe entirely could be a golden opportunity for him. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms