The NBA playoffs have been historically chaotic. We break down each series

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Toronto clobbered Cleveland (though that series is 2-1, Cavs, who are favored); Atlanta beat the Knicks again on another big CJ McCollum bucket and huge defensive stop at the end and now lead that series as the No. 6 seed; No. 6 Timberwolves took Game 3 from No. 3 Denver out West for a 2-1 series advantage. The uncertainty doesn’t stop there. Two more series will continue Friday that are currently tied 1-1 and in one of them, No. 2 San Antonio against No. 7 Portland, the best player in that series, one of the best in the NBA, Victor Wembanyama, is in concussion protocol. In one of the two series remaining in which one team holds a 2-0 lead, Oklahoma City is going to be without All-NBA performer Jalen Williams because of another hamstring injury. And the Lakers, who are the higher-seeded team than Houston but were huge underdogs coming in because of injuries to their top two scorers, could get Austin Reaves back for Game 3 tonight. Kevin Durant is on the injury report again after missing Game 1. There is simply too much basketball to come to make any grand pronouncements about what will be the end result of the first round. But there is real volatility coursing through all eight of the 2026 first-round series. Believe what your eyes and your heart rates tell you. Favored at the start: Celtics (-600 odds to win, according to BetMGM) Volatility: The Sixers evened the series in a stunner of a Game 2 behind 30 points from rookie VJ Edgecombe. Joel Embiid has yet to play (appendectomy) and was listed as “doubtful” for Game 3 as of 10 a.m. Friday, but Philadelphia is at home and can test Boston’s role players, who struggled mightily in Game 2. Role players allegedly play worse on the road. Tyrese Maxey is cooking, too. Favored at the start: Rockets (-600) Volatility: As mentioned, Durant is questionable (this time it’s an ankle sprain; he missed Game 1 with a knee bruise) while Reaves (oblique muscle) could return. But the real absurdity here is that the Lakers won the first two games without Reaves and Luka Dončić (hamstring). LeBron James, — you may have heard of him — is 41 years old and playing like… well …he’s playing really good (can’t quite say he’s playing like he’s 10 years younger because 31-year-old LeBron wore a red cape and spearheaded the greatest NBA Finals comeback in history). Luke Kennard has been the Lakers’ second-best player in the series; he has never been more than a role player in the NBA. The Rockets, meanwhile, had Durant for Game 2 and Alperen Şengün is an All-Star; yet they were outclassed. If Reaves returns and Durant is out of Game 3, Houston’s already long odds to come back and win this series get even longer. Favored at the start: Spurs (-550) Volatility: It’s not just that Wembanyama left Game 2 with a concussion and as of 10 a.m. Friday was still in the protocol. It’s that the Spurs built a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter without him and choked it away. San Antonio built a deep, competent, gritty team around Wemby that should have more than enough talent to manage this series while he recovers, which makes the Blazers’ fourth-quarter comeback in Game 2 all the more impressive. Scoot Henderson’s true coming-out party continues – he scored 31 in Game 2 and has much more room to operate if Wemby isn’t terrorizing him and everyone else in the paint. The Spurs’ excellent guard combo of De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle shot a combined 13-of-36 in Game 2, which can’t happen if Victor misses again. Favored at the start: Pistons (-200) Volatility: The oddsmakers pointed to this series at the start as the hardest to pick, as Detroit had the smallest odds of any favorite. And then in Game 1 we saw why. Orlando earned its place as an eighth seed by being both injured and maddeningly inconsistent all season. But the Magic have a ton of talent, especially in their starting five, and that group didn’t flinch while applying pressure on every Piston not named Cade Cunningham in a Game 1 triumph. The Pistons went on a bonkers run in the third quarter of Game 2 to even the series. We should try not to be a prisoner of the moment on this one and declare the Pistons in trouble, yet, but if Orlando plays to its potential, then we have a matchup of two big, physical, bruising teams that don’t shoot it well from the outside. In that scenario, the Pistons would be in danger of becoming the 2023 Milwaukee Bucks, who lost to the No. 8 seed Miami Heat in the first round (the Heat went all the way to the finals that year, coming out of the Play-In Tournament. Can the other Florida team do the same? LOL, so much for not overreacting). Favored at the start: Thunder (-2500) Volatility: Ehhhh… there still isn’t much of it in this series. Yes, Williams is out again, injuring the other hamstring. He missed most of the season recovering from a series of hamstring injuries, and the defending champs had no trouble reclaiming the top overall record in the NBA. But Dillon Brooks is coming off a 30-point Game 2, and Devin Booker, the Suns’ top player, is looking for a breakout game in this series. Why not Saturday? Favored at the start: Knicks (-300) Volatility: It’s not just that the Hawks have won the last two games and overcame fourth-quarter deficits both times to do it. The Knicks could be facing an identity crisis. Mikal Bridges was held scoreless in Game 3 on Thursday night. Was it bad enough for coach Mike Brown to make a change to his starting lineup? If not, how long can he stay with Bridges? Also, Jalen Brunson has had two rough finishes at the ends of Games 2 and 3. He was the Clutch Player of the Year last season, and has been through a million tough playoff series, so it would be premature to count him out. But the Knicks are also playing under the weight of expectation, with likely ramifications if they fall short of the conference finals (or perhaps finals?). A first-round loss would simply be unacceptable, even though the Hawks are a difficult matchup for them based on personnel. Favored at the start: Denver (-400) Volatility: The Wolves, like the Hawks in the East, won the last two games in this series. They are making it really hard on Denver’s best player, Nikola Jokić, who shot 7-of-26 in Thursday’s loss. The Nuggets also played without Aaron Gordon (calf) in Game 3. They listed him out with tightness in his calf muscle, but after what happened to Tyrese Haliburton in the finals last year, teams are going to be more careful about allowing players to return from any calf injury, even during a playoff series. Throw in that these two teams are actual rivals, and rivalries tend to supersede things like point spreads and expectations, and it’s clear Minnesota is in a great spot to pull the upset. Favored at the start: Cavs (-700) Volatility: Like the Thunder series, this one still seems relatively calm. The Raptors were beaten soundly in games 1 and 2, and then rode a historic team shooting performance and individual scoring nights from Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett (each scored 33 points) to win Game 3. The Cavs, meanwhile, were bad in every facet of Thursday’s game. All of their stars were bad. The defense was bad. Too many turnovers. Poor shooting. You name it, they stunk at it. To declare this series a toss-up, the Raptors need to win a game in which the Cavs aren’t the worst version of themselves. We suppose Toronto could force Cleveland into an equally bad performance in Game 4, which is unlikely, and it’s even more unlikely that the Cavs play that poorly three more times in this series. And yes, there are three other games on Sunday (Spurs-Blazers; Celtics-Sixers; Lakers-Rockets). But can we see what craziness unfolds for those series over the next two nights before we cast any guesses for their Game 4s? There’s too much uncertainty between now and then to do otherwise. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms