While OutKick is trying to enjoy the NBA conference finals, though all the blowouts make that difficult, the fanboys keep demanding we comment on the ratings.
Every other day, it seems, NBC or the NBA releases another celebratory graphic touting viewership.
"The Western Conference Finals are averaging 9.4 million viewers across NBC and Peacock, making it the most-watched Western Conference Finals on record through three games," NBC posted on X on Thursday.
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The network also said that "Thunder-Spurs Game 4 on Sunday delivered a total audience of 10.3 million viewers, making it the most-watched Western Conference Finals Game 4 since 1999."
Earlier this postseason, the NBA claimed the playoffs were the highest-rated since 1993.
Predictably, blogs and podcasters have seized on those figures as proof that the NBA has fully regained the popularity it lost over the past decade. According to them, the numbers show that those damn conservatives were wrong about the league. At this rate, Bill Simmons and Ryen Russillo will once again demand that OutKick address the numbers.
Here’s the problem: the ratings discourse this postseason is deeply misleading.
Take the claim that Thunder-Spurs is the most-watched Western Conference Finals in 26 years. It is the first conference finals series to air on NBC in 23 years. Every comparable series since has aired on cable, either TNT or ESPN.
That distinction matters.
Broadcast television reaches significantly more homes than cable. In fact, the current Western Conference Finals, featuring two small-market franchises that historically struggle to draw national audiences, are averaging roughly two to three million more viewers than the Eastern Conference Finals featuring the New York Knicks. That gap suggests that during most conference finals, especially those without the Knicks, the cable-to-broadcast bump would be even larger.
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There’s another issue rarely acknowledged by the NBA-friendly media. Nielsen measures television audiences differently than it did the last time the NBA aired on NBC. In fact, Nielsen measures audiences differently than it did just a year ago.
Since September, Nielsen has implemented a new measurement system called Big Data + Panel. Industry estimates suggest the updated methodology inflates audience averages for live sports by roughly 10% compared to the previous system.
And then there’s Peacock, whose streaming figures are not independently verifiable.
Put simply, the numbers NBC and the NBA are promoting do not prove that the league is more popular now than at any point since the late 1990s.
Consider the NBA’s claim that the first round was the highest-watched opening round in 33 years. Beyond the Nielsen methodology changes and the move back to broadcast television, the league also stopped airing first-round playoff games on regional sports networks for the first time ever.
In previous years, fans in major markets like New York and Los Angeles could watch local Knicks and Lakers broadcasts instead of the national telecast. This year, those viewers had no local alternative.
That change alone almost certainly inflated the national numbers. Combined with the Nielsen adjustments and the NBC broadcast advantage, these factors likely explain most, if not all, of the reported 20% increase in first-round viewership.
To be clear, NBA viewership is only a major topic of conversation right now because the league and its unusually friendly media ecosystem insist on making it one. No other sports league promotes selective ratings data as aggressively as the NBA. Likewise, no fan base seems more eager to play "gotcha" with television numbers than NBA fans online.
Perhaps they think talking about ratings distracts from the actual product: flopping, inconsistent officiating and a lack of competitive playoff basketball.
Notably, the Thunder-Spurs series has been a dud since an excellent Game 1. Since then, every game has been decided by double digits. Out East, the Knicks dispatched the Cavaliers in four games. After a thrilling opener, New York won the final three games by an average margin of 22 points.
Still, the NBA and its fans do have legitimate reasons for optimism. The Knicks are headed to the Finals for the first time since 1999, which is undeniably compelling television. Victor Wembanyama has also emerged as a genuine superstar this postseason, even if the Spurs still appear a step below Oklahoma City.
And yet, for whatever reason, fans and media personalities keep demanding OutKick weigh in on the ratings — which, despite all the spin and self-congratulation, are hardly worth bragging about.
