The Fernando Tatis Jr. puzzle. Plus: Zoom in on this photo

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I’m Levi Weaver, welcome to The Windup! If you look at Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Baseball Savant page, you’ll notice a couple of things that seem completely incongruous: One, his “Hard-hit %” is 66.7 percent, which is in the 100th percentile. As in, nobody is hitting it hard with more frequency than Tatis. And two: His “Batting Run Value” is -3, which is in the 23rd percentile, and he hasn’t hit a home run yet. How?! From a strictly “Well, it’s the physics …” standpoint, it’s pretty easy: It’s hard to hit a ball over the fence when your average launch angle is 3.5 degrees. The better question isn’t “How?” … it’s “Why?” As in: Why has Tatis been smashing baseballs with triple-digit exit velo directly into the nearest patch of dirt, grass, or leather? That’s the mystery Dennis Lin is tackling in his story today. Lin spoke to the Padres hitting coaches, opposing scouts and Tatis himself. If they had it solved, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. But it’s a bit of insight into how the pros approach a weird glitch like this. And it’s fascinating. Today we hear from our senior baseball reporter Ken Rosenthal about the Cubs’ backwards approach, that works. I’ll be back next section. Over to you, Ken!  The Cubs rank second in the majors in runs per game. They’re doing it without a dominant slugger. And they’re doing it in somewhat of an unusual manner: swinging at the fewest strikes of any club. That’s right, the Cubs entered Thursday last in swing rate inside the zone, and third from the bottom in overall swing percentage. And no, it’s not simply the Alex Bregman Effect, even though “swing less” is pretty much the third baseman’s personal credo. “We have not had a meeting and said swing less, by any stretch of the imagination,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said. “If there’s one guy that trumpets swing less, it’s Bregman. Are guys hearing it? I don’t know if I have a good answer. We have some pretty established people who probably aren’t changing too much.” With the season nearly 20 percent complete, second baseman Nico Hoerner and shortstop Dansby Swanson entered yesterday with their in-zone swing rates down more than 10 percent. Center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong was down nearly 10 percent, though he hadn’t solved his biggest problem. His 44.7 chase rate was a career high and the fifth highest in the league. First baseman Michael Busch’s in-zone rate also was down, but not to the same extent as those three. Right fielder Seiya Suzuki and left fielder Ian Happ were at roughly last year’s levels. And then there was Bregman, whose in-zone rate was a career-low, whose chase rate was its lowest since 2022 and overall swing rate was its lowest for a full season since 2019. Bregman, who joined the Cubs this season on a five-year, $175 million free-agent contract, makes a concentrated effort to swing only at pitches on which he can do damage. If he gets too aggressive, his knack for making contact on pitches outside the zone leads to too many easy outs. Hoerner is also a high-contact type, but Counsell said emphatically, “I can tell you Nico’s change is not a result of Alex Bregman.” Cubs hitting coach Dustin Kelly said the team has spent four years trying to get Hoerner to be the hitter he was in the latter part of last season and the first month of this one — more selective, but taking chances when ahead in the count and pulling the ball in the air. Once in a while, we like to start a streak counter at the bottom of the newsletter, above the most-clicked link. Today, we have a couple of pretty hyper-specific (but still interesting!) ones we’ll be adding, starting tomorrow: Knowing this will really impress your friends. You’re welcome. We often lean on gifs here. And sure, the video is in Fabian Ardaya’s story. But I think the double play that ended yesterday’s Marlins-Dodgers game calls for a still-shot analysis! Far right: First base umpire Adam Hamari, who somehow got this call right despite the large man in between him and the essential part of the play. (In fact, it’s possible he got part of it wrong by accident, but we’ll get to that.) Second from right: That’s perhaps the greatest baseball player who ever lived (Shohei Ohtani, but you knew that. Didn’t you?). He’s just been called out for leaving the base path, and is contorted into a position that made me — for the first time in at least two decades — think about this song by Brak of “Space Ghost Coast to Coast” fame. Middle top: Marlins second baseman Xavier Edwards. With the Marlins leading 3-2 in the ninth, bases loaded and one out, Edwards caught a ground ball by Freddie Freeman. He ran Ohtani back to the bag, got the out via base path violation (and also tagged him, by the way) and then stepped on the … hang on. Middle bottom: Dodgers first base coach Chris Woodward, who is frantically pointing at somethi– Far left: Marlins first baseman Connor Norby, who is (understandably, since it’s right there in his position’s name) covering first base. The problem: His foot is right in the way. Zoom in and you can see it getting stepped on, right there above the ad for the injury law firm. Edwards did also drag his foot across the base, so whether Hamari saw that, or just never considered that Edwards might be stepping on a shoe rather than the base, the call was correct. The Dodgers lost 3-2, which leads us to another quick question … L.A. is 7-7 since the start of its series in Denver on April 17. It doesn’t even have the best record in baseball anymore! I’m mostly joking. The Dodgers are still 20-11. But they have looked a lot more human for a couple of weeks now. We’ll keep an eye on it. Great stuff from the trio of Eno Sarris, Andrew Baggarly and Dan Hayes: As the sport continues to evolve, are we seeing the devaluation of saves, in favor of “leverage?” More fallout from the managerial change in Philadelphia: Matt Gelb tells us what will (and won’t) change under interim manager Don Mattingly. Meanwhile, Jayson Stark reminds us that Mattingly has dug out of a hole like this before. And the (wrong kind of) hits keep coming in Boston. Garrett Crochet is now on the IL with shoulder inflammation. It’s only sort of related to baseball, but I thought this story from Rustin Dodd was so fascinating: “Why some of the best athletes in the world pretend to be someone else.” Zack Meisel did some digging to tell the story of Travis Bazzana, the Guardians’ newest call-up, and his path to the big leagues, including PowerPoint presentations and a leaky air mattress. Two-player rookie cards make for some interesting retrospectives. Today, Larry Holder talks to one of the “other guys” — Jeff Winchester, who shares a rookie card with Matt Holliday. Chad Jennings took your questions, and I don’t think Mets fans are OK right now. Maybe it’s the hitting. Or the pitching. In plays separated by no more than 10 minutes, Braves first baseman Matt Olson beat the Tigers with a walk-off home run, then Cardinals outfielder Nathan Church pulled off a robbery to prevent Nick Gonzales of the Pirates from doing the same. At 44, Alexei Ramirez was the oldest player in the World Baseball Classic. So he probably wasn’t going to play in the next one anyway, but he definitely won’t now: He tested positive for “four anabolic steroids.” Most-clicked in our last newsletter: Matt Gelb detailing the inside story of the end of the Rob Thomson era in Philadelphia. 📫 Love The Windup? Check out The Athletic’s other newsletters. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms