Teachers ruin boys' university chances because they underestimate A-level grades, study says

By ELEANOR HARDING, EDUCATION EDITOR Published: 14:49, 28 July 2026 | Updated: 14:51, 28 July 2026 Teachers hamper boys' chances of getting into a top university because they underestimate their grade predictions, a study has suggested. New data reveals schools are systematically predicting lower A-level grades for boys compared with girls who go on to get the same results. This harms boys' chances because universities use predicted grades to decide who to offer places to, researchers said. They added girls often enjoyed a 'halo' effect whereby good behaviour in class meant teachers thought they would get higher grades. The study could help explain why boys are less successful at entering an elite university. The latest official statistics show 15 per cent of female pupils enter a top-tier institution compared to 11 per cent of males. Lead author Dr Konstantina Maragkou, of Cambridge University, said: 'It is very unlikely that teachers deliberately predict better results for girls, but they may be relying on an impression of student characteristics which can lead to gendered predictions. 'We need to think carefully about how fair that is for young people when the stakes are so high.' Teachers hamper boys' chances of getting into a top university because they underestimate their grade predictions, a study has suggested (file picture) The research, by Cambridge and Bristol universities, analysed data from more than 350,000 students in England. It indicated a consistent 'pro-girl' gap in teacher predictions across 10 A-level subjects. Depending on the subject, girls were between 3 per cent and 11 per cent likelier than boys to have their grades overpredicted, and between 15 per cent and 41 per cent less likely to have them underpredicted. The researchers said decisions may be influenced by pupils' motivation, diligence and classroom engagement – areas where girls may be excelling. And they argued that because these predicted grades are an 'important signal in university admissions, such differences may influence the allocation of educational opportunities and students' access to selective courses and institutions.' The study used data from three university application cycles between 2017 and 2019. By comparing boys and girls with the same A-Level outcomes, the researchers identified a gender gap in predicted grades. On average, girls received predictions between one tenth and one fifth of a grade higher than boys. For example, girls were predicted, on average, around 0.17 of a grade higher in physics and 0.13 higher in sociology. Dr Maragkou added: 'Differences of this size may appear small, but they can be enough to move a student across a grade boundary – for example, from a B to an A, or an A to an A*. 'Teachers are not supposed to base predicted grades on students' character, but they are probably not doing so consciously.' The findings are published in the journal Economics Of Education Review.