Southampton early favourites for Championship play-off final against Hull City

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The market already has a firm favourite. Southampton are 17/20 to secure promotion and 8/11 to win in 90 minutes after extending their unbeaten league run with a dramatic extra-time semi-final victory over Middlesbrough. Shea Charles’ late cross-shot settled a tie that had already been simmering, due to an ongoing investigation into allegations a Southampton analyst filmed the opposition’s training sessions before the game. Pending the fallout from that saga, Southampton would arrive at Wembley with momentum, experience and the weight of expectation. The south-coast side also know what it takes to win at this stage, after beating Leeds United in the 2024 play-off final. Hull, by contrast, are the outsiders at 18/5 for promotion and 16/5 to win inside 90 minutes, but that may suit them perfectly. They only sealed their play-off place on the final day after overtaking Wrexham, before growing into their semi-final against Millwall and winning 2-0 away from home thanks to goals from substitutes Mohamed Belloumi and Joe Gelhardt. The pricing suggests bookmakers respect Hull’s threat, even if Southampton are favourites. A draw after 90 minutes is 15/8, while under 2.5 goals is heavily favoured at 1/2. It points towards a tense final and Championship play-off finals have often been decided by moments. Sunderland beat Sheffield United 2-1 with a late goal in the 2025 final and the early markets imply another tight affair this season. Southampton’s control and consistency across the second half of the season understandably give them an edge, but Hull’s late surge means they arrive with freedom and less external pressure. That combination could make Wembley unpredictable, despite Southampton’s pedigree, and leave Hull believing another upset remains entirely possible. Spot the pattern. 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