Smoke rising above Putin’s hometown is his worst humiliation yet

This was a smokescreen that revealed more than it hid.

The pillar of black fumes rising into the summer sky above St Petersburg on Wednesday reminded the world, and especially those international would-be investors who had travelled to the showpiece St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), that Russia is at war – and the war had joined them in the same city.

There was no question who launched the attack. In an open letter to Russian president Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky wrote: “Our long-range drones paid a visit to the opening of your forum in St. Petersburg.”

It is tempting to imagine Zelensky, even as his country continues to endure deadly Russian strikes, permitting himself just the tiniest moment of laughter as he and his advisers came up with this insolent line – as if they were in a script meeting for one of the TV comedies in which the Ukrainian leader once starred.

More than a quarter of a century has passed since Putin first became Russian president. Images of him in poses of power have been a huge part of his political career: in a suit in the gilded surroundings of the Kremlin’s vast halls, the tough guy in military uniform, the bare-chested action man on holiday.

Putin, whose fascination with history has led him to write lengthy essays on World War Two, and the ‘Unity of Russians and Ukrainians’ (tl;dr—Ukraine is not a separate country) presumably hopes that one day he will be remembered alongside Tsar Peter the Great—founder of St Petersburg—as a leader who took Russia to new heights.  

Zelensky’s letter takes aim here, too. “Whatever you may say about Nato, geopolitics, or the Russian language, this war is your personal choice – a war without a real cause. That is how history will remember it.”

Alexander Pushkin, in his 1833 poem, “The Bronze Horseman”, imagines Peter the Great as he plans to build the city. “All flags will visit us,” the tsar dreams.

Putin wanted something similar. One of his proudest moments as president was welcoming the leaders of the world’s most powerful nations to St Petersburg – Putin’s home town – in 2006 for the G8 summit.

The message was clear: Russia, after the humiliation that followed the end of Cold War superpower status, was back at the top table of international affairs. I was at the summit as a correspondent. I had also visited weeks earlier for another story, and noticed how the city was already being smartened up for the big event.

Something similar would have happened in the run-up to SPIEF. The black smoke was not included in any planning presentation of how the city should look.

What the smoke has revealed is a war built on lies. The first big lie was at its outset, in 2014, when Russia initially claimed that Crimea was taken over by self-defence forces – the so-called “home guard”. Putin admitted a month later in his annual marathon phone-in: “Of course, the Russian servicemen did back the Crimean self-defence forces.”

In 2022, the war on Ukraine went to a horrific new level. More lies were needed, including denial that it was a war at all. The Kremlin insisted this was a “special military operation”. Officials, and Russian TV propagandists, continue to loyally parrot the phrase.

You wonder how many of them still really believe it. No amount of skillful public relations can erase the smoke from the St Petersburg skyline, or from the memories of the conference delegates who saw it looming over the city.  

Putin still holds massive advantages – in resources and manpower – over the smaller neighbouring country he wants to conquer. Zelensky’s letter, its mocking tone not at all appreciated in Moscow, will not be the start of a peace process.   

The Russian president’s response when he spoke at SPIEF was to criticise the West, and trumpet Russian economic success. Much of that, of course, is driven by the war – sorry, “special military operation” – economy.

But for now Putin has lost the initiative on the battlefield, has no clear diplomatic path forward, and has seen his plans to show off St Petersburg go up in smoke. More and more Russians must be starting to wonder whether they can believe in the man they have trusted with their security and prosperity.