Saturday at the Spa: Saratoga Race Course picks for Jim Dandy Day and two other graded stakes races

Saratoga Race Course delivers a loaded Saturday card on Aug. 1, highlighted by three graded stakes races featuring promising juveniles, talented turf runners and some of the top three-year-olds in horse racing.

The action begins with the Grade 2 Saratoga Special Stakes, where a field of lightly raced two-year-olds will sprint 6½ furlongs on the dirt for a $250,000 purse.

Later, three-year-old fillies take center stage in the Grade 3 Lake George Stakes on the inner turf course before the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes headlines the card. Here are my best bets for all three stakes races Saturday at the Spa.

OUTKICK SPORTS CARTOON OF THE DAY

6.5 furlongs on dirt for two-year-olds with a $250,000 purse.

Since the field is made up of lightly raced two-year-olds, I’m taking a shot with #5 Uncle Kef (12-1), with jockey Irad Ortiz up, who has been the top-earning jockey in several Saratoga summer meets.

NCAA ROCKED BY COLORADO JUDGE'S 2022 CLASS ELIGIBILITY RULING THAT COULD RESHAPE COLLEGE SPORTS THIS YEAR

Uncle Kef is getting 12-1 on the morning-line because this is his first race on turf. He broke his maiden on a synthetic surface on debut and finished fifth on that same surface in his only other start.

Two early speed horses and the top two betting choices post alongside Uncle Kef, so maybe he rises to the occasion, runs with his rivals and Ortiz wins this race on the closing stretch. There is a better chance of this happening than the 12-1 odds imply.

One-and-one-sixteenth miles on the inner turf course for three-year-old fillies with a $225,000 purse.

It's not a great price, admittedly, but the #8 Deeper Learning (7-2) is my favorite horse in the race. She has the best jockey (Flavien Prat) and trainer combo (Chad Brown) in the field. Prat is 2-for-3 on Deeper Learning and they won on debut on the Spa’s turf at this distance last summer.

Her 85 Beyer speed figure that day remains her career best in four races. I’m placing a few other horses under Deeper Learning in an exacta for various reasons.

The #1 Honfleur (10-1) is another Brown horse and he prints money on the Saratoga turf in the summers. #3 Candy Moonshine (15-1) has run faster in all eight races and has made the money in her three career races at this distance. Then there is #4 Time to Dream (5-1), who has the most graded stakes experience in this field and great connections.

One-and-one-eighth miles on dirt for three-year-olds with a $500,000 purse.

This is pretty much a four-horse field since the #2 Asked and Answered (30-1) is winless in six career races. I hate betting favorites, but #5 Commandment (6-5) is by far the best horse in the field and he was part of my winning trifecta ticket at the 2026 Belmont Stakes at Saratoga.

Commandment is 4-1-0 in seven career starts and 1-0 at this distance. Ultimately, 6-1 is the longest price of the other three horses in this field with a chance to win, and that’s not enough to take against Commandment, who I like.

_____________________________

Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.