Rory, Rahm lead the pack chasing Alex Smalley at the PGA Championship. Who can win?

Rory McIlroy reacts after making a par on Saturday at the PGA Championship. Richard Heathcote / Getty Images Share articleNEWTOWN SQUARE, Pa. — When Alex Smalley puts his head on a pillow late Saturday night, he’ll know he has plenty of time to sleep in. More than he has ever experienced in his professional golfing career. For the first time, the 29-year-old Smalley has the 54-hole lead at a PGA Tour event, and it’s a whopper — the 108th PGA Championship. He’s 6 under par through three rounds at Aronimink Golf Club, with a two-shot lead over five foes tied for second place. That’s the rub, though. Among those names at 4 under? Jon Rahm, a two-time major champion who would be three-quarters of the way to the career Grand Slam with a PGA win, and Ludvig Åberg, one of the best in the world without a major to his name. There are another four golfers at 3 under par, including 2024 PGA champion Xander Schauffele and 2018 Masters champion Patrick Reed, but most notably Rory McIlroy. Just the career Grand Slam winner and defending Masters champion. No biggie. Oh, and another 12 men are at 2 under par. That’s 22 golfers in all that history says have at least a shot at hoisting the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday night outside of Philadelphia. What happens next? That’s for our golf coverage team at Aronimink — Brendan Quinn, Gabby Herzig and Brody Miller — to predict. Quinn: I took Xander Schauffele to start the week. Now, at this vulnerable moment, my wandering eye is considering taking Jon Rahm or Ludvig Åberg; perhaps a flier on adopted Philadelphian Justin Rose. This seems to be the world’s most obvious bait and switch, though. Schauffele ranks in the tournament’s top five in both putting and driving, and has hit 28 of 42 fairways this week. When the pressure is up, give me the two-time major winner who is putting and driving well. It’s Xander. It always was. Herzig: It’s really difficult to pick someone over Rory McIlroy, purely considering his recent run and how precise his short game is at the moment, but I’m going to go with Jon Rahm. I think Rahm is hungry. Perhaps hungrier than he’s ever been to win a major. He’s in the midst of a LIV-centric firestorm off the golf course that is certainly driving him to get back on top. And according to the Spaniard himself, his game feels better than it did in 2023 when he won four tournaments in four months, including the Masters. Looking at a leaderboard with a few powerhouses mixed with a lot of inexperience, I think Rahm is in the perfect position to snag his third major. Miller: Jon Rahm. No matter how easy it’s become to dunk on him, no matter how much we’ve convinced ourselves he’s less of a factor because of LIV, even a “down” version of Rahm remains a top-three player in the world. He’s so balanced, and I’d argue he’s played the best overall golf of all the top 10 players at 3-under or better this week. Smalley, Matti Schmid and Nick Taylor are here mainly because of hot putting, while Rahm and Åberg are really the only two at the top who are defeating the course. Nobody has more to gain than Rahm on Sunday, and outside of McIlroy, nobody is better equipped. Herzig: I’m sorry Matti Schmid, it’s just not happening. Schmid has had two top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour this year, but they came at the Cognizant Classic and the Puerto Rico Open. He was an elite amateur golfer, but has never won as a professional. He’s only played in four major championships in his career. Three of them were more than five years ago, and he’s only made the cut in two of the four. Sunday final-group nerves are not for the weak, and I don’t think Schmid will get it done in his first time in this position. But if he does, it will be an all-time story. Miller: Alex Smalley. Yeah, that’s right, the guy with the two-shot lead and highest probability to win, per DataGolf. I’m sorry. His (incredibly impressive) 31 on the back nine came when the conditions died down and set up perfectly for him. He opened with three bogeys in four holes when all the attention and crowds honed in on the final group, but by the back nine, almost nobody followed that Smalley-McNealy group at Aronimink. It was bizarre to see, maybe 30 or 40 fans around the 16th green and 17th tee for the biggest shots of the tournament thus far. He deserves credit, but… his best moments came with nobody making him sweat. Quinn: Yes, Cameron Smith (-2, T11) won the 2022 Open Championship while facing a four-shot deficit entering Sunday, just as he does here at Aronimink. But this Cam Smith ain’t that Cam Smith. The 2022 version was trending all along, coming off a T13 finish at the PGA and a tie for third at the Masters, culminating his peak with a final-round 64 at St. Andrews. This 2026 version? This one has missed six straight cuts in major championships, dating back to the 2024 Open, and hasn’t won a golf tournament since a 2023 LIV event at Trump Bedminster. Miller: Patrick Reed. A windy grind of a major championship with 43 players bunched together toward the top and chippy fans? This won’t be won with beauty. It might take P-Reed. Quinn: Only a dumb man would pass on the player holding a two-shot buffer. But I am a dumb man and have a hunch that Smalley’s putter will cool off. I’ll push in some long-shot chips on Maverick McNealy. He’s not only a legitimate top-40 player in the world with big-game experience, but his all-around performance this week stacks up with just about anyone here. McNealy isn’t long, but he’s long enough, and he’s proven able to navigate the needling, relentless winds that have shaped this tournament, all while using his short game to score. Herzig: Patrick Reed would be my choice. He spent three consecutive days practicing at Aronimink last week to prepare for this test, and he said he experienced three different types of conditions during that span of time. That combination of intel, confidence and recent form is something I’d put money on. Quinn: Look, McIlroy might go out and shoot 63 on Sunday, turning the 2026 summer into a swirl of Grand Slam talk. Fans will swoon. Media will quiver. Delaware County, with a population estimated at nearly 25 percent Irish, will kneel. Or maybe all McIlroy’s bad juju this week will call in its debts, and this week at Aronimink will end in a whimper. All I know is I want to watch him play No. 10 on Sunday, as that back-right pin placement is borderline impossible and might finally bring Rory to a breaking point. Herzig: He’s starting to come around on it, but … probably. McIlroy’s opinion about the PGA of America’s set-up leading to a bunched-up leaderboard will really be put to the test tomorrow. If a runaway winner emerges, I think he’ll admit he was wrong, but still point to the logjam of names after Saturday’s round. Miller: Has anything ever stopped him before? Herzig: The Philly crowds have been Rory-obsessed. I think this town of hard-core sports fans would love to see McIlroy make a move toward history in his push for a single-year Grand Slam. Miller: The actual answer? Surely Rory. The non-Rory pick: Ludvig Åberg. He’s cool as hell. He’s handsome. He’s got a beautiful swing. He can be frustrating at times, but when he gets rolling, it feels like you’re watching the best ball striker in the world. They’re gonna lift him so high. Quinn: While I can imagine the crowd throwing its weight, and its beers, behind an unheralded American underdog like Smalley, he’s lacking a certain Nick Folesian aura. The answer is pretty clearly McIlroy. The Irish will be out in force, despite high heat and potentially life-threatening sunburn. Nearby Havertown is unironically referred to as “the 33rd county,” a reference to its population amounting to what should be an extra county on Ireland’s map. But more than any of that, McIlroy today represents golf’s most emotionally stirring character. Philadelphia will want to be part of the ride. Miller: I’m sticking with Reed. He shouldn’t be a great fit here! He’s below average in distance off the tee! But his other strengths, like wedge play and putting, are the actual greatest separators at Aronimink. Quinn: Even if I think it’ll be Schauffele, the answer is probably Scheffler. Herzig: Xander Schauffele — his game has been trending in the right direction, and if anyone can stay above the noise during a chaotic tournament, it’s the ever-composed X man. Miller: Very little, to be honest. Not because of the disparity. If we assume it’s not Smalley, then Scheffler is only three shots back. I just don’t think Scheffler has been sharp enough to go on one of those Inevitable Scottie Runs. He was sloppy Thursday, getting to 3 under on putting. On Friday, he struggled quite a bit off the tee. And Saturday, he couldn’t make a putt for his life. I don’t have much confidence he’ll put it together. Herzig: Very low. Maybe less than 10 percent. But I give Scheffler a much higher chance at making a late run and posting his fourth consecutive second-place finish here at Aronimink. Scheffler will not fade away. Quinn: Scheffler has shot a round of 65 or better in three of his last four majors. This week he’s posted rounds of 67, 71 and 71. A 64 or 65 on Sunday? Totally possible, totally plausible. If Scheffler figures out something on the practice green, he could storm Aronimink on Sunday, set off a few cannons and force every player atop the leaderboard to spend five hours looking over their shoulders. If anything, I’d be surprised if Scheffler didn’t enter the fray and at least get to the day’s starting number of Smalley’s 6-under score. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms