PETER VAN ONSELEN: Truth about Pauline Hanson's poll setback and the 'elitist, arrogant' reaction to Newspoll, Redbridge surveys

By PETER VAN ONSELEN, POLITICAL EDITOR, AUSTRALIA Published: 04:12, 29 June 2026 | Updated: 04:26, 29 June 2026 Your browser does not support iframes. The latest Newspoll and Redbridge surveys don't signal the end of Pauline Hanson's surge. It's more complex than that.  Her protest movement is starting to be judged as a possible governing force, and for some voters that naturally serves as food for thought. But it also means that Hanson has entered the mainstream. Today's poll saw a slight dip in One Nation's support, with some voters returning to the devil they know. Labor has clawed its way back to a 33 per cent primary vote, helped no doubt by Budget backflips designed to neutralise the toxicity of broken promises. Some voters are pausing before going all the way with One Nation. But the beneficiary of that pause is not the Coalition. That is the real story here. One Nation has dipped slightly to 29 per cent primary support, yet Angus Taylor's Opposition remains marooned on just 17 per cent, barely ahead of the Greens. Strip away the Nationals and it is entirely possible the Liberal Party is now flirting with fourth place. If that doesn't cost a political leader their job I don't know what does. How much longer can Coalition MPs tolerate a leader who has made them an afterthought? The voters who are hesitating on Hanson are bleeding back to Labor, bypassing the Coalition entirely.  That is utterly devastating for Taylor. He gave his predecessor less than a year before deciding she was finished and had to go.  Politicians and the press gallery could arrogantly write off PaulIne Hanson's surge as a blip... That would be a mistake. The One Nation leader can no longer be dismissed with an elitist, arrogant roll of the eyes Now, halfway along the journey to that same milestone himself, Taylor's irrelevance is becoming impossible to miss. The defining question in Australian politics is no longer whether One Nation threatens the Coalition. That has already been asked and answered. The question now is whether One Nation poses a genuine threat to Labor. When a populist insurgency polls within striking distance of the government, the political centre of gravity hasn't merely shifted, it has entirely changed. Protest movements often trade on instinct and grievance. They don't have to do the tedious arithmetic of balancing the Budget or policy development because governing isn't a realistic option. Just look at the Greens. That's changed for One Nation, which will bring more scrutiny onto the party and its leader. Hanson's National Press Club address marked a threshold moment in this respect.  Standing before the national media as the leader of a prospective governing force strips away the luxury of simply being the outsider throwing truth bombs. The same lines that once sounded raw and refreshing can start to sound a little risky when voters are invited to imagine them as government policy. In a sense, Hanson is about to become a victim of her own success in the countdown to the next election. Every rhetorical punch now carries the weight of a policy scare.  Her recent stumbles over paid parental leave and monoculturalism exposed the friction between protest politics and prime time scrutiny. One Nation's support hasn't exactly collapsed. It ticked back to what Labor's was just a few weeks ago But it's a problem Hanson would rather have than not have. It's a sign of growing respect for her status as the new unofficial opposition leader.  She can no longer be dismissed with an elitist, arrogant roll of the eyes. And it's not as if One Nation's support collapsed in the latest poll - it ticked back to what Labor's was just a few weeks ago. Mainstream commentators risk misreading this moment. Every adjustment in the polls will be seized upon as evidence that Hanson is moderating, or that voters are retreating from her as the election gets closer.  But just as the gallery long underestimated Hanson's capacity to grow, they shouldn't be too quick to assume fluctuations in support are a sure sign that she's been found out. While One Nation poses an existential threat to the Liberals and Nationals, it was never likely to do the same to Albo and Labor.  In fact its rise makes it more likely, not less, that the government gets re-elected. It might pick up a few Labor seats here and there, but the biggest wins for One Nation are likely to happen in seats currently held by the Coalition. A fracturing on the right isn't a recipe for defeating Labor, at least not immediately. If One Nation is to rise and embed itself as the official opposition, it's what happens next that might impact on Labor's incumbency. If Hanson tries to water down her language, walking back inconvenient statements and adopting the sterile dialect of today's major party political leaders, she risks alienating the base that propelled her this far. But if she doesn't make some adjustments, Hanson may have hit her zenith already. That's the strategic calculation she and her key strategists will be weighing up in the months ahead. The comments below have not been moderated. The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline. By posting your comment you agree to our house rules. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? 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