Pakistan leans on US and Iran ties to emerge as potential peacebroker

Pakistan's role as a possible host of talks aimed at ending the Iran war builds on its courtship of United States President Donald Trump and its reputation as a relatively neutral player with long-standing ties to neighbouring Iran's Islamic Republic. If talks happen, it could raise Pakistan's global prominence to heights not reached ‌since the country helped mediate the secret diplomatic opening that led to US President Richard Nixon's visit to China in 1972. It would cap over a year of relationship building with Trump that has involved astute diplomacy and crypto deals. Pakistan, which maintains direct contact with both Washington and Tehran at a time when such channels are frozen for most other countries, would also benefit directly from an end to the war. The country is home to the world's second-largest Shia Muslim population after Iran, and faced nationwide protests the day after US and Israeli strikes assassinated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the start of the conflict on February 28. The risk of a prolonged war in Iran spilling over into Pakistan is among Islamabad's biggest fears, analysts and security officials say. Pakistan, which has been engaged in ⁠a conflict with the Afghan Taliban, has also suffered from fuel disruptions caused by the Iran war. Also Read: Dar speaks with UK, China and UAE as US-Iran diplomacy ramps up "Pakistan has unusual credibility as a mediator, maintaining workable ties with both Washington and Tehran, while a history of strained relations with each gives it just enough distance to be seen as a credible go-between," Adam Weinstein, deputy director of the Middle East program at the Quincy Institute, told Reuters. Relationship building with Trump Chief of Defence Forces and Chief of the Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir has built a close relationship with Trump to repair years of mistrust. Pakistan joined Trump's Board of Peace just after CDF Munir flew to Davos to meet Trump in January. https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/116284693281091216 Pakistan has also struck a deal with a crypto business linked to Trump's family to use its USD1 stablecoin for cross-border payments, while White House envoy Steve Witkoff helped broker an agreement to redevelop New York's Roosevelt Hotel, owned by Pakistan International Airlines. Pakistan has been involved in diplomacy to end the Iran conflict since it began, including shuttling at least half a dozen messages between the US and Iran, according to five official Pakistani sources. Before Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed the offer of talks on Tuesday, one of the Pakistani sources and a foreign source said that officials from both countries could hold talks in Islamabad as early as the end ‌of this week. ⁠The Pakistani source said US Vice President JD Vance, Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner were expected to take part. According to official press releases, over the past month, PM Shehbaz and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar have held over 30 conversations with counterparts in the Middle East, including half a dozen with Iranian officials. Two took place on Monday, the same day the US said mediation efforts were underway, and came alongside a phone conversation between CDF Munir and Trump that was confirmed by the White House. "Pakistan hosting US-Iran talks represents a major upgrade in Islamabad’s strategic standing," Kamran Bokhari, senior resident fellow with the Middle East Policy Council in Washington, told Reuters. Read More: PM Shehbaz says Pakistan ready to host US-Iran talks as FO acknowledges role in de-escalation efforts "After decades of being a troubled state, ⁠Pakistan appears to be re-emerging as a major American ally in West Asia," he said. Ties with Tehran Bokhari said Pakistan was Iran's least adversarial neighbour while maintaining "the closest ties with its historic regional adversary Saudi Arabia and [being] trusted by Washington". Pakistan shares a sensitive border with Iran across Balochistan. The neighbours clashed along their border in January 2024, but ties have since been repaired. Iran may perceive it as more neutral than other ⁠possible mediators. "Unlike Gulf states like Qatar, Pakistan does not host US military bases and is a military power in its own right," said Weinstein. Pakistan can also lean on its historic role as an intermediary — Tehran's de facto diplomatic mission in the US has been hosted at Pakistan's embassy in Washington since diplomatic relations between the US and Iran ruptured in 1979. Islamabad's mutual defence agreement with Riyadh, signed in September, requires both countries ⁠to come to the other's aid and has therefore weighed on calculations. As the US war in Iran entered its second week and Tehran struck Saudi Arabia, FM Dar said he had reminded Iran of the pact and was attempting to mediate with Iran. Security sources in Pakistan said Islamabad was bound by the pact but was working to avoid entering the conflict through its backchannel talks with Tehran.