Oil Flows Will Remain Uncertain

BusinessEnergyOil Flows Will Remain UncertainByMichael Lynch,Senior Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. I analyze petroleum economics and energy policy.Follow AuthorJun 15, 2026, 06:23am EDTMUSCAT, OMAN - MARCH 30: A police speed boat patrols the port as oil tankers and high speed crafts sit anchored at Muscat Anchorage near the Strait of Hormuz on March 30, 2026 in Muscat, Oman. (Photo by Elke Scholiers/Getty Images)Getty ImagesYears ago, an article by GWU’s Robert Weiner talked about the oil futures market that was active in Pennsylvania in the first years of the oil industry. Traders would cluster around a ticker tape machine and react to every report of a successful well or a well that declined. It feels like that recently, except the news people react to are social media posts by the U.S. President, typically ‘buy on the aggressive tweet, sell on the conciliatory one.’ Now, prices are likely to fluctuate depending on reports of tanker transits of the Straits which will be taken as indicative of how quickly shipping reaches pre-war levels. Many argue that the recovery will be slow because 1) mines need to be removed; 2) shippers might be reluctant to test the waters (so to speak); and 3) the potential that Israel and Hezbollah might continue fighting, causing Iran to pause the ‘opening.’First and foremost, the deal could very well fall apart, in which case oil prices could soar. Industry warnings about low and falling inventories should be taken seriously, even though efforts to cope with the Straits’ closure have delayed—but not eliminated—the day of reckoning. Disagreements about the terms of the agreement or continued fighting in Lebanon could stall any signature and/or implementation. But assuming the deal is signed and at least initially appears to be holding, prices should remain depressed but reacting to any difficulties tankers have exiting the Gulf. Ships might trickle out slowly at first, which will push pr...