Nottingham Forest have chance to change dynamic of a chaotic season - will they take it?

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Forget about what Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham United and Leeds United do in their remaining five Premier League games and worry only about what you can control. “If we start to think that three points is enough, it would be a big mistake. We need to keep the mentality to get points everywhere,” Pereira said in his post-match press conference. “The conversation we had today was about how a season that can look like a bad season, can still be a fantastic season in the end. If, inside of us, we believe that we can do it, anything can happen.” Control is the right word. Forest can be masters of their own destiny. They have the power to turn a chaotic campaign into one with a genuinely historic ending. That logic applies as much as ever before on Friday evening’s Premier League match away at Sunderland. When they meet at the Stadium of Light, Pereira’s side will have the opportunity to significantly shift their own dynamic. For so much of the campaign, Europa League football has played second fiddle to the Premier League and, more specifically, to Forest’s desperate fight for survival. So many European team selections — not just for Pereira, but for Sean Dyche before him — have been influenced by what comes next. After the first three games, the majority of the 14 fixtures Forest have played in Europe have been overshadowed by the need for Premier League points. Even before the second leg of the quarter-final, against his former club Porto, Pereira admitted he was picking his personnel for one of the biggest games staged at the City Ground in years, with one eye on the visit of Burnley. The consequences of dropping out of the top flight after four seasons would be seismic. But so too would be the consequences of winning a fourth major European trophy — and the chance to play Champions League football. They have not been in Europe’s elite competition since 1980-81, following their second European Cup win in 1980. These players will desperately want to avoid being the team that took Forest back to the Championship. Conversely, they could also secure legendary status. Away from the stresses and strains of a relegation battle, they have the chance of making a European final if they can get past Aston Villa, with the semi-final first leg at the City Ground next Thursday. And that is why Friday’s game could give them the rare luxury of being able to put the Europa League first. Beating Sunderland would not secure safety — there would still be a lot of work to do — but it would provide precious breathing room. Enough, in theory, for Pereira to be able to pick his strongest side against Villa, without having to prioritise the game against Chelsea, on Monday, May 4, that comes before the second leg in Birmingham on May 7. In the past nine seasons, clubs who have amassed at least 36 points (as Forest have already) have avoided relegation. The last time more than 36 points were needed to avoid the drop was in 2015-16, when Newcastle United finished 18th, in the final relegation spot, with 37 points. Over the last five seasons, the average required points tally to avoid the slide into the Championship has been 30.6 points.  Last year, 26 points would have been sufficient to secure safety, ahead of Leicester City. In 2023-24, 27 points were required to finish above Luton Town. The last time it took 40 points or more to avoid relegation was in 2011, when Birmingham City were relegated with 39 points. It is not unrealistic to suggest that a similar tally might be required this time around. But if Forest can secure victory in Sunderland, it would leave them on the 39-point mark and within touching distance, at least, of where they need to be. That will be much harder than it sounds. Sunderland have secured 29 points at the Stadium of Light — a home record bettered only by Manchester City (39), Arsenal (38), Aston Villa (35), Manchester United (33) and Liverpool (31). They have lost only three times in the league at home, but those three defeats — by Liverpool, Fulham and Brighton & Hove Albion — came within their past four home fixtures before a 1-0 win over Tottenham. They also lost 1-0 at League One strugglers Port Vale in the fifth round of the FA Cup last month. Regis Le Bris’ side have had an outstanding season. The relegation battle many predicted they would face has instead seen them flirt with European qualification. But they have stuttered slightly in recent weeks. In contrast, Forest have found some precious momentum at the right time. Victory over Burnley notched up their seventh game without defeat. Defeat or even a draw at Sunderland might mean Pereira has to once more put more weight on that game at Chelsea. But win and, for the first time, Forest could afford to heap more of their focus, as Pereira says, on trying to turn a bad season into a fantastic one. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms