NHL Power Rankings: A top-five shuffle, plus historical comparisons for young stars

AtlanticBruinsCanadiensLightningMaple LeafsPanthersRed WingsSabresSenatorsMetropolitanBlue JacketsCapitalsDevilsFlyersHurricanesIslandersPenguinsRangersCentralAvalancheBlackhawksBluesJetsMammothPredatorsStarsWildPacificCanucksDucksFlamesGolden KnightsKingsKrakenOilersSharksScores & ScheduleStandingsPodcastsFantasyNHL OddsNHL PicksPlayoff projectionsNHL Draft rankingRed Light NewsletterNHL Regular The Canadiens are surging, thanks in part to a breakout stretch from 22-year-old Juraj Slavkovsky. Jonathan Dyer / Imagn Images Share full articleOnly one team can have Macklin Celebrini. Only one gets Matthew Schaefer. Still, as a wave of Gen-Z talent crests over the league, nearly every team has a real reason for excitement. This time last year, we looked at grizzled vets worth championing for their staying power. This time around, we’re looking ahead to the players who will likely define the next generation — many of whom are already showing that capability this season. We don’t know what path they’ll each take, but history can drop a few hints. That’s the aim this week, as we look at one 23-or-younger skater on each team (with some exceptions) matched with a player from the recent past whose numbers (size, production, peripherals, play-driving, trajectory, usage, value) looked most similar at the same age. When the Avs acquired Nicolas Roy, it was reasonable to expect him to slot in as their fourth-line center. Instead, before an upper-body injury on March 22, Roy was playing on Brock Nelson’s wing. There’s a good reason for that: Jack Drury, at 25, has the best Defensive Rating on the team. One of his comps is former Los Angeles King Trevor Lewis — an underrated, defensively impactful fourth-line center on a Cup winner. Sounds about right. Jackson Blake signed a big-money extension last summer, albeit at a paltry $5.1 million cap hit for the next eight seasons that already looks like a slam dunk given what Kiefer Sherwood just signed for. Blake is up to a 50-point pace in his second season and has the type of strong two-way numbers you’d expect from a Hurricane. He may not be a future star, but he looks like a key part of Carolina’s second layer, much like T.J. Oshie was for many years with the Blues and Capitals. The Lightning have thrived without Victor Hedman. One reason: Darren Raddysh has replaced the sort of offensive production that Tampa Bay got from Hedman at his peak. The other: J.J. Moser, at 25, has emerged as one of the league’s best defensive defensemen, putting up the fourth-best Defensive Rating at the position against top competition. Overall, he slots in with blueliners like Jaccob Slavin and Marc-Edouard Vlasic — players who might not win Norris Trophies but still earn widespread respect. With four seasons under his belt, it’s easy to forget that Wyatt Johnston is still only 22 years old. He’s broken through this season, scoring 41 goals and 80 points in 76 games, mostly by way of pure dominance on the power play. There are a few decent 1Cs on his comp list, but the most intriguing may be Brayden Point, who put up 41 goals and 92 points at the same age with similar power-play effectiveness. A Lane Hutson comp would be fun. Unfortunately, no particularly good ones exist. At 22, he slots right where Cale Makar did in total value, but in a much smaller package. Things are going well in Montreal, if you hadn’t heard. Here’s another big one: thanks to Juraj Slafkovský’s increased productivity in his age-21 season, he’s doing Mikko Rantanen-type things. When Rantanen was 22, he had an 84-point season for the Avs. It’s no wonder the Canadiens are surging. There are plenty of interesting Sabres comps to be made — Zach Metsa and “every stat-dork-approved third-pair defenseman you can remember,” for example. But we found a particularly interesting one for 23-year-old Owen Power. Has he broken out? Not really. Has he spent the season making real progress on the top four? Absolutely. That’s the sort of well-rounded, unspectacular impact Chicago got from Brent Seabrook in his age-23 season. While Brock Faber is probably not a No. 1 defenseman, that’s OK with Quinn Hughes in town. Next to him, Faber, 23, is turning into one of the game’s best No. 2s. Faber eats minutes, defends well and is up to 50 points on the season as second fiddle. He’s showcasing what Ivan Provorov might’ve been for the Flyers back in the day had they been able to add a superstar next to him. Will Fraser Minten slot in as Boston’s long-term first-line center? Without some pretty substantial growth, that probably wouldn’t be a good thing for the Bruins. His play has been huge, though, for one of the league’s most surprising teams. Minten, 21, has provided solid defensive minutes that they desperately needed, and he’s helped drive offense with strong zone-entry numbers. Nick Schmaltz did that for Arizona once upon a time, and he’s become a reliably effective top-six piece in Utah. In some ways, Ben Kindel personifies the Penguins’ shockingly solid season. Viewed by many as a reach at the 11th pick in June, he made the roster as an 18-year-old and hasn’t looked back. Kindel’s comps, though, are a little odd. For one, not many players his age stick around for a whole NHL season, and the ones who do are often superstars. Kindel’s strengths have been driving expected goals and creating chances for himself, not necessarily throwing up huge hockey-card numbers. That gives him a high ceiling (David Pastrnak, Steven Stamkos) and a fairly low floor (Alex Galchenyuk, Josh Bailey), but clearly there should be reason for real optimism. Alex Pietrangelo was never a Norris Trophy finalist, topping out in fourth place despite having an elite two-way impact and taking on tough minutes throughout his career. He was a Net Rating darling at a time when analytics were still in their infancy, with a few seasons that should’ve been more appreciated. We’re hoping Jake Sanderson, currently sidelined with an upper-body injury, doesn’t suffer a similar fate. The Norris field looks like it’ll be crowded annually, but Sanderson, 23, is cut from the same cloth as a do-it-all hero on the back end. The Senators miss him dearly. American-born No. 5 draft pick? Check. Traded before turning 22? Check. Elite shot and loves to use it? Check. Defense optional? Check. Cutter Gauthier, you’re the new Phil Kessel. After a really shaky start, Matt Savoie is looking like the ideal winger for Connor McDavid. The 22-year-old is fast, creative and has a nose for the net, all of which have come together nicely since the Olympic break. His best comp is Travis Konecny, which would be a huge win for the Oilers. Over the past two seasons, Lucas Raymond, who turned 24 last week, has 48 assists on the power play, fifth-most in the league. He’s become an elite setup man for the Red Wings and a key offensive catalyst — not unlike teammate Patrick Kane, who at the same age was establishing himself as a point-per-game threat. There’s still time for Raymond to hit another level. Here’s how good Matthew Schaefer has been: His closest rookie comparison is the 21-year-old version of Cale Makar, and Schaefer holds the edge in that comparison in ice time, scoring, penalty drawing and defensive impact despite being three years younger. Terms like “unicorn” and “generational” are used too frequently. In Schaefer’s case, they might end up not being strong enough. Since Rick Bowness arrived, Adam Fantilli, 21, has really started to flash who he might become, with 27 points in 30 games and decent impact at five-on-five. The path to being a legitimate 1C is there for the taking, one with the consistent point-per-game upside that Mark Scheifele has shown throughout his career. Back in 2008, Bobby Ryan was 21 and one of the league’s best young snipers, putting up his first of four consecutive seasons with at least 31 goals for the Anaheim Ducks. Dylan Guenther, 22, has a great shot at hitting 40 before the end of this season. Vegas, as you may have guessed, is really short on young talent. Without a U23 option, we turn to the unheralded Pavel Dorofeyev, who at 25 is quietly about to put up his second straight 35-goal season, with a decent defensive game to boot. There aren’t many wingers who fit that bill, but Wild center Joel Eriksson Ek’s affinity for scoring with rock-solid defense works. We’ve got a good news/bad news situation for Flyers fans: Matvei Michkov’s closest comp at 21 is Clayton Keller. Not bad! Keller is one of the league’s best playmaking wingers and, for four seasons now, has been a reliable point-per-game scorer. He didn’t take off, though, until Rick Tocchet was no longer his coach. Back then, Tocchet mitigated Keller’s defensive issues at an immense cost to his offensive production. Sounds familiar. A lot of the league’s best players are rare breeds. They’re incomparable in their uniqueness. Macklin Celebrini doesn’t really qualify, because it’s hard not to watch him and see a kid who grew up watching Sidney Crosby every night. We don’t have this type of data for Crosby at 19, but it’s hard not to imagine the two wouldn’t be close. Interestingly, Celebrini does have one above-average comp who also happens to be a first-round pick: Taylor Hall. Now, we’re obviously talking about Celebrini being a very rich man’s version, but there are some statistical similarities. Namely, they both did a whole lot on an otherwise bad team with next to no help. The major difference of course is that one guy paced for 71 points and the other could hit 120. If Ryan Leonard, 21, continues to follow a curve similar to Martin Necas and Brayden Schenn, the Capitals will take it. Both players, like Leonard, started their NHL careers as productive middle-sixers and then, in their own ways, turned into something more. Schenn was a major top-six piece for a Cup champ, and Necas just might be a 100-point scorer on Nathan MacKinnon’s wing. Selected 15th in 2023, 21-year-old rookie Matthew Wood is putting up a respectable season with 16 goals and 28 points in 64 games. Those are decent numbers despite limited ice time, especially on the goal-scoring front with 1.01 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. It took some time for Gabriel Vilardi to emerge as a 60-point threat, but Wood’s numbers are tracking along the same path at the same age. It’s been a disappointing season in Jersey, but there’s reason to believe in both of the Devils’ 22-year-old, blueline building blocks. Luke Hughes’ comp is Shea Theodore, who went from power-play specialist to a well-rounded, fringe Norris candidate. For Simon Nemec, it’s Keith Yandle and Morgan Rielly, a pair of effective offense-first guys. Here’s a fun one. At 23, Brandt Clarke’s best comp is Kris Letang. Also 23, Quinton Byfield’s best comp is Jordan Staal. If the Kings can just find themselves a Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, they’ll be cooking with gas. That right there might be the best example of why Los Angeles’ future (and present) doesn’t look very bright. We still haven’t seen a ton of Elias Salomonsson, and his counting numbers are nothing special, but Winnipeg’s five-on-five results with him, in both directions, have been outstanding. His comps as a 21-year-old defenseman speak to that success. One of them is Josh Morrissey. Winnipeg will take that. Now, all he needs to do is turn those underlyings into a few 60-point seasons. It’s never a bad thing to be compared to Patrice Bergeron. Matty Beniers knows this — and lo and behold, Beniers’ 23-year-old season is of a type with Bergeron’s: good defense, average offense. By that point in his career, though, the Bruins legend had put up 70- and 73-point seasons, which Beniers hasn’t sniffed, and lost most of another to a concussion. Moving forward, all Beniers has to do is establish himself as one of the very best two-way centers of all time. No big deal. William Nylander is the patron saint of dynamic offensive wingers who are … good enough defensively, let’s say. Jimmy Snuggerud, come on down! Nylander leveled up a bit further into his 20s, but Snuggerud scoring at a 22-goal pace as a 21-year-old is a nice start. The Panthers are taking a year off, which likely means getting a top-10 pick to add to their stack. Great. Florida is short on young players, but one guy they do have, Mackie Samoskevich, 23, offers a lot of intrigue. He has a flair on the power play and has shown a real knack for driving play at five-on-five, enough to have two pretty rosy top comps: Adrian Kempe and Troy Terry. Matthew Knies, 23, has had an up-and-down year, but the result has still been a career-high 60 points in 72 games so far. In terms of defensive ability and play-driving, there’s still a lot of room to grow for Knies, but he looks well on his way to being one of the league’s premier power forwards. His best comp at the moment is a player many Leafs fans are already familiar with: James van Riemsdyk. While he doesn’t have a lot of games under his belt, 20-year-old Gabe Perreault has turned heads of late in an elevated role, scoring four goals and 14 points in 16 games since March 1. That assist-heavy production has him mirroring some top-six playmakers, with the most eye-popping being Jonathan Huberdeau. If Perreault can become anything close to prime Huberdeau, it would be a major development win for the Rangers. And boy do they need it. Zayne Parekh had six points in his first 12 post-deadline games. Given his age — Parekh turned 20 in February — that power play-aided pop in production helped make the rookie version of Erik Karlsson a viable comp. What we’re saying is that Parekh is right on track to win the 2027-28 Norris Trophy. There’s no great comp for Connor Bedard, and that’s for reasons good and … a little less good. At 20, he’s a small point-per-game player who’s lugging around some poor defensive metrics. John Tavares at that age was a taller version of Bedard in a few senses; both were incredibly hyped No. 1 picks with questionable footspeed, rough play in their own end, immense skill and tons of early production. Tavares grew into a Hart candidate. Can Bedard do the same? Two things with Zeev Buium. On the one hand, it’s a great sign that he’s already in the NHL at this age. On the other, it’s not a great sign that he’s getting crushed defensively, even at this age. The NHL’s big dogs on defense usually weren’t great out of the gate either, but still had things figured out to a much stronger degree. Buium’s raw tools and pedigree are obvious, but he needs to start proving he’s more Morgan Rielly than Erik Brannstrom. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms