NFC reform urged to keep population from burgeoning

• Lawmakers push to end over-reliance on population for funding; suggest tying resource distribution to human development metrics
• Demographic dividend has become a demographic drag, says Sherry
• UN official says family planning a ‘sound economic investment’

ISLAMABAD: Lawmakers across the political spectrum emphasised an urgent need to reform the NFC formula by reducing its over-reliance on population as a metric and take decisive action to address rapid population growth ahead of the 2026-27 federal budget.

The cross-party consensus emerged during a pre-budget session of the Parliamentary Forum on Population (PFP), which convened more than 40 parliamentarians from federal and provincial legislatures to translate political commitments on population stabilisation into concrete budgetary action.

The session was organised by the Pop­ulation Council with support from the Uni­­­ted Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).

Senator Sherry Rehman, chairperson of the PFP, underscored the gravity of the issue while chairing the session, calling for stronger political ownership across all legislatures.

“Population is a ticking time bomb for every resource this country generates,” Rehman said.

Senator Rehman warned that Pakistan is headed towards a population explosion that threatens basic rights and the country’s long-term sustainability.

“Our population is projected to reach 390 million by 2050, an alarming 62 per cent increase. By then, 256 million people will be in the job market, more than our existing total population,” she said, adding, “This is no longer a demographic dividend; it has become a demographic drag.”

Rehman highlighted the direct im­­pact on human welfare, noting that 40pc of children under five are stunted due to chronic malnourishment and 42pc of the population lives below the poverty line.

“Forty per cent stunting should be enough of a wake-up call for all of us,” she said. “We defend many frontiers as a nation, but these are our real trenches.”

She called for the immediate removal of the tax on contraceptives and emphasised that population must be framed as both a national and family issue requiring sustained parliamentary oversight.

Adnan Pasha Siddiqui, adviser to the Minister of Finance on Special Initia­ti­ves, delivered the keynote address, highlighting population growth as a central macroeconomic challenge for Pakistan.

“Had population growth been better managed over the years, Pakistan’s GDP and per capita income would be significantly higher today,” he noted.

Siddiqui outlined the need for fiscal and structural reforms, including revisiting the National Finance Commission (NFC) formula and advancing a long-term National Population Stabilisation Programme, warning that population pressures will continue to undermine economic competitiveness.

Senior economist Dr Hanid Mukhtar ob­­served that Pakistan allocates only a modest share of public spending to population-related priorities, terming it “not a lack of resources, but a lack of fiscal priority”.

This was echoed by Dr Melania Hidayat, International Family Planning advisor at UNFPA Pakistan, who highlighted a significant financing gap. “Family planning is not only a vital health intervention, but also a sound economic investment that delivers substantial social and economic returns,” she stated, urging policymakers to remove the contraceptive tax through the Finance Bill.

In a plenary discussion moderated by MNA Dr Farooq Sattar participants reiterated the need to link resource allocation with human development indicators, address regional disparities, and strengthen last-mile service delivery.

Concluding the session, Naveed Qamar, chairman of the National Assembly Stan­ding Committee on Finance and Revenue, reaffirmed the Parliament’s commitment to accountability and stressed that budgetary allocations for population and family planning would be closely reviewed.

Published in Dawn, May 21st, 2026