The U.S.-brokered alliance designed to counter Iran in the Middle East is showing signs of strain amid tensions between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, an analyst says, as the possibility of a broader conflict with Tehran intensified Sunday.
The friction first surfaced May 13 after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said he held a "historic breakthrough" meeting with UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan during a "secret visit" to Al Ain near the Oman border.
The UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a swift denial following the announcement.
The ministry said, "Its relations with Israel are public and were established within the framework of the well-known and publicly declared Abraham Accords. These relations are not based on secrecy or clandestine arrangements."
It added, "Therefore, any claims regarding undisclosed visits or arrangements are baseless unless issued by the relevant official authorities in the UAE."
"The stakes are high," Middle East Institute analyst Natan Sachs told Fox News Digital.
"I imagine the Israelis are working overtime to mend relations with the UAE, but it is too early to tell," he said.
President Donald Trump spoke with Netanyahu on Sunday as tensions over Iran escalated and with the Israeli leader saying he was "prepared for every scenario."
The leaders discussed the possibility of renewing the war with Iran as well as Trump’s recent trip to China, according to the Times of Israel.
Sachs, a senior fellow at the institute, said Netanyahu’s UAE meeting claim "seems like a diplomatic blunder because it embarrasses the UAE."
"This was an odd move to make since the UAE has been a close partner of Israel, even during this war," Sachs said.
"Either Netanyahu didn't think, or he was thinking about something else — domestic politics. It would not be the first time he did that."
"To the degree that the Emirati anger is genuine, it would have meant working to preserve trust with their Gulf Arab ally," Sachs added.
"I would also not rule out Emirati anger at the leak itself, which could be seen as a break of trust — something very important to the Emirati leadership."
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, fundamentally altered the regional balance by normalizing relations between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan.
Security cooperation has since expanded significantly due to shared concerns over Iran’s military ambitions.
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That alliance was tested when Iran launched strikes against UAE military and energy infrastructure during Operation Epic Fury.
Israel is said to have deployed Iron Dome air-defense systems and personnel to the UAE, according to U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee. The UAE confirmed Sunday that it had intercepted three drones coming from the west.
"The UAE received much of the fire from Iran. It is the most vulnerable to Iranian short-range missiles, which are more plentiful and cheaper than the medium-range missiles fired at Israel," Sachs said.
"While short-range missiles can be intercepted, Iran has many more of them. The UAE took the most hits, yet it stood out by sticking most clearly to its strategy of open partnership with Israel."
"But the public disclosure that Netanyahu himself visited may have just been seen as a step too far," Sachs added.
