NASCAR Cup Series at Bristol odds, picks for Food City 500: Kyle Larson, Ty Gibbs look ready to win

Ty Gibbs, driver of the No. 54 SiriusXM Toyota, is one of our picks this week. Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images Share full articleThe NASCAR Cup Series comes back from the holiday break and heads to Bristol, Tenn., for the Food City 500 on Sunday. We’ll see who benefited from the time off, or if anyone’s momentum got a shift in the right or wrong direction! At the last race before the break, Chase Elliott clinched his earliest victory in a NASCAR season. Who will get the next one? As always, our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, are here to make their picks for the race, plus they’ll walk us through questions about the path forward for teams that are struggling, what to expect from the tire-wear chaos at Bristol and what to make of a YouTuber in NASCAR. Welcome back from the Easter break! Hope you both had some downtime. Speaking of downtime: Do you expect any teams to return from the break with new strategies, fresh perspectives, or any other changes? Jeff: Fresh perspective or a reset is something that could be useful to those drivers who have gotten off to a rough start. For example, Kyle Busch said at Martinsville he was going to disconnect and take a week off from racing — including his son Brexton’s racing — and go on a family vacation. That was likely much-needed for Busch as his struggles at Richard Childress Racing continue. On the other hand, Kyle Larson said Tuesday he would have been fine without a break because he’s eager to get back to the track, stay in rhythm and keep improving. So, an off-week at this point, after just seven races, means a driver’s mindset is likely dependent on how their season has been going so far, with nearly four months of uninterrupted race weekends ahead. Jordan: Whether an off week is a good or bad thing all depends on perspective. If a driver and team are running well, they’d prefer to keep that momentum rolling. Conversely, a week off helps those struggling teams to breathe a bit and also affords them time to shore up the areas where they’re lagging. One group that this break should help is the Chevrolet teams, who are still working out the kinks of their redesigned car — a car that, based on results thus far, is not performing to a level as high as the Toyotas currently are. One thing to watch over the next few weeks is how the Chevrolets run now compared to the opening stretch of the season — particularly at upcoming races at Kansas and Texas, both mile-and-a-half tracks. This has nothing to do with the Cup Series OR Bristol, but I have to ask about YouTuber “Cleetus McFarland’s” NASCAR push. Do you think there’s a path for him moving up to the big(ger) leagues, whether that’s consistently racing in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series, or something else? If so, what? Jeff: NASCAR decided not to grant approval for McFarland’s next scheduled race, which was supposed to be at Talladega Superspeedway in a few weeks. That’s disappointing in the sense he brought a lot of positive attention and enthusiasm to NASCAR, but clearly officials are looking to see more before approving him for the bigger O’Reilly Series tracks. He’s currently approved for all tracks in ARCA and Trucks, but only short tracks and road courses in O’Reilly. Ironically, Talladega might actually be an easier place to drive than Rockingham — where he spun out several times on Saturday and finished 32nd, six laps down — but this is the part of NASCAR’s approval process that could probably use more clarity and transparency. Jordan: There is nothing wrong with slowing down the Cleetus train a bit to better allow him to acclimate to being a professional racecar driver. His lack of experience is notable, as anyone who watched the O’Reilly Rockingham can attest. He needs seat time. And jumping all the way up to NASCAR’s second-tier series after just a single national series start — one he crashed out of on Lap 5 — is a big jump for someone who’s not done this for any substantial amount of time. NASCAR recognized this, and it’s the reason they’re pumping the brakes a bit. It was a judicious decision. You wrote in your Martinsville recap: “Now sitting 24th in points, [Kyle] Busch’s season is teetering in the wrong direction.” What’s the path is for Busch to get the momentum going in the right direction? What are his best tracks ahead, and how can he maximize his points realistically? Jeff: It just doesn’t seem like RCR’s Cup cars are very good right now. At all. Yes, Busch is off to a miserable start and has an average finish of 21.6. But teammate Austin Dillon is even worse (27th in points, average finish of 23.3), and RCR has a combined zero top-10 finishes at this point in the season for the first time in its history. The cars aren’t qualifying well or racing well; aside from both cars getting a top-10 starting spot at Darlington, they have both qualified 24th or worse in every non-superspeedway race this season. So say what you want about Busch, a future Hall of Famer you’d expect to see doing better, but the cars just aren’t fast enough so far this season. Not even close. Jordan: There are a lot of contributing factors. One of the main ones is that RCR as a whole is struggling and, for some time, has lacked any sort of high-level consistency. It’s hard for a driver to produce results if they don’t have a car capable of contending. But Busch is culpable, too. He hasn’t fully adapted to the Next Gen car, and his results bear this out. He hasn’t won in the past 100 races, whereas Dillon has two victories during this span. Too often, he tries to overcompensate for RCR’s deficiencies by pushing too hard, often making the situation worse. Add everything together, and it’s why Busch is off to the worst start of his career. What should we expect at Bristol in terms of strategy, especially considering recent tire wear races, etc.? Jeff: On Wednesday, I spoke with Justin Fantozzi, Goodyear’s Director of Racing for the Americas. After some wildly unpredictable tire issues over the past two years at Bristol, Goodyear concluded the problems were all due to temperature issues. So last November, they did a postseason tire test at Goodyear and came up with a tire that officials believe will be much less weather-dependent and not nearly as sensitive to a suddenly cold day. The new tire is expected to be able to lay down rubber even in cold temperatures (instead of turning to dust), so this should be a more straightforward and traditional Bristol race. Jordan: There is a better chance of correctly picking the winning lotto numbers in consecutive weeks than accurately knowing what the tire situation will be like on Sunday. Last year, the widespread consensus going into the spring race was that there would be significant wear. Yeah, that didn’t happen. Not even close. And afterward, the garage was baffled as to why. Then, when NASCAR returned in the fall, the belief was that tires would have little wear during the race. Guess what? The opposite transpired. This is how Bristol has been the past few years; everyone thinks one thing, and in short order, everyone is proven wrong and shrugs their shoulders. Who is your favorite to win it? Jeff: Ty Gibbs will pick up his first career NASCAR Cup Series victory on Sunday, finally breaking through after 130 starts. Why now? Gibbs has found his groove with five straight finishes of sixth or better and is headed to probably his best track in the Cup Series. Bristol is where Gibbs has his most career laps led (440 — no other track has more than 80), most top-10s (four) and tied for the most top-fives (two). He also led 201 laps in the Bristol Night Race last summer. Yes, his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell will be formidable — as will Kyle Larson, who is the favorite for a reason. But this could be the moment everything comes together for Gibbs as he picks up his first Cup win. Jordan: It’s been 31 races since Kyle Larson last won a race. That’s hard to fathom, even if he still won the 2025 Cup Championship during this stretch. But that streak comes to an end Sunday. Bristol is one of his best tracks and a place that fits his skill set so well. In the Next Gen era, Larson either ranks first or is tied for first in wins, top-five finishes, average finish and laps led — in fact, his laps led total (946) almost doubles that of second-ranked Ty Gibbs. Larson is the clear favorite on Sunday, and there is no reason to overthink this. Jeff: There’s only been one “upset” type winner in the last 25 years at Bristol, and even that wasn’t that shocking. Chris Buescher won a crazy race of attrition in the first year of the Next Gen car in 2022. So honestly, I wouldn’t go too far down the list. Maybe a better bet is to take a couple of fliers on someone getting a top 10, like a Zane Smith or AJ Allmendinger. Otherwise, this is going to be one of those Big Three teams races; last spring, Hendrick, JGR and Penske swept the top six finishing spots. Jordan: One long shot to consider: Ross Chastain, who has three top-10s in the past six races here (all in the Next Gen car). Yes, Trackhouse is a bit off right now. But if this race features high tire wear, as it has in recent years, Chastain can navigate the chaos to potentially contend. He’s as good a long shot as anyone at a track where a handful of drivers tend to dominate. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms