Michael Jackson biopic set for $90M debut, breaking Box Office records

ALBAWABA - Antoine Fuqua's Michael Jackson biopic is on track to break records at the American box office, with a debut of around $90 million.

According to individuals with knowledge of grosses, Michael is expected to earn $37 million to $38 million on Friday alone, for a three-day total of $88 million or more, marking a milestone success for Lionsgate. The picture is expected to gross $180 million globally in its opening, due to Jackson's much stronger appeal overseas, where Michael is also off to a record start (Universal handles the film globally).

Michael was expected to start in the $65 million-$70 million range domestically, which would have already been the largest opening for a music biopic in history, not adjusted for inflation. The current record holder is Universal's Straight Outta Compton ($60.1 million), followed by Fox's Freddie Mercury film Bohemian Rhapsody ($55 million).

Michael's true potential was revealed when the film earned $12.6 million in Wednesday and Thursday previews, putting it on par with 2026 box office hit Hail Project Mary and ahead of event films like Dune: Part II and Oppenheimer, both of which reported preview grosses around $10 million.

The main question was how front-loaded Michael would be. At the same time, it was evident that moviegoers were ecstatic about the film, which has a coveted 96 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes.

On Thursday, news centered on Michael's troubling RT critics' score, which fluctuated between 29 and 33 percent. Many of the reviews appeared to be critical of the fact that producer Graham King and Lionsgate decided to end the film before Jackson was accused of child sexual assault (the Jackson estate supported the project). The film's initial budget of $155 million was increased by tens of millions of dollars for additional photography to make that decision a reality.

"Fuqua and screenwriter John Logan don't precisely break the pattern with Michael, nor do they overdo it with dramatic discoveries. But they tap into a core of melancholy behind the stratospheric triumph that's shockingly moving," writes THR's chief film critic David Rooney in his review. "The online mob will be sharpening their pitchforks since the film fails to address the allegations of child sexual abuse that ruined Michael Jackson's career. However, the filmmakers get around this by focusing on his early career, which concludes with the 1988 Bad World Tour concert in London, years before allegations first arose. The epilogue card that reads 'His narrative continues' performs some heavy lifting."

By Thursday night, the critics' rating had grown to 40% on Rotten Tomatoes. While this is far from ideal, high audience exits more than compensate for it.

When Michael first appeared on the track three weeks ago, the domestic opening range was $55 million to $60 million. While this is still a large amount, the subsequent surge suggests that Michael may be profiting from the nostalgia effect, which is driving infrequent moviegoers to return to the multiplex in droves for the first time since the outbreak, or igniting interest among the most enthusiastic moviegoers, Gen Z.

Michael is expanding into 82 markets outside of Japan. It opened in most major cities on Wednesday, grossing $16.6 million for a total of $18.5 million, including previews.

International Wednesday's highlights included the following:

France ($2.6 million): The biggest opening day ever for a biopic, far surpassing the Wednesday debuts of Oppenheimer and Bohemian Rhapsody.

U.K. and Ireland ($2.6 million): The biggest opening day for a musical biopic of all time, beating Bohemian Rhapsody's Wednesday debut and much outperforming Elvis and Rocketman's Friday debuts.

Italy ($1.3 million): The highest opening day ever for a musical biopic, surpassing Bohemian Rhapsody.

Australia ($1 million): The largest opening day for a musical biopic ever, surpassing Elvis.

Brazil ($651,000): Michael contributed another $651,000 in previews, bringing the total to $2 million. The combined preview result is the highest ever for a non-superhero, non-franchise film on the market. It remains number one, with a 68 percent market share.