Mendoza's TDs, Love's rushing yards and other NFL rookie predictions after NFL Draft

Fernando Mendoza is certainly no lock for 15 TDs in his rookie season. Ethan Miller / Getty Images Share articleAccording to virtually every successful financial analyst, there is only one safe place to park your money in periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty: NFL rookie player props. Oh, you prefer gold or government bonds? OK, gramps. Sophisticated modern investors understand that a balanced portfolio of wagers relating to 21 and 22-year-olds who play a violent, chaotic team game is the surest way to grow wealth. It is a pillar of a responsible investment strategy. With this tenet in mind, let’s review nine of the most enticing rookie props for the upcoming 2026 season, all currently available at FanDuel. As everyone knows, the path to long-term financial security begins in Vegas … Fernando Mendoza, QB, Raiders, under 14.5 passing TDs If Skynet ever created a quarterback, it would look, sound, move and throw exactly like Mendoza. He appears lab-built to play the position. Raiders fans have every reason to be amped for the Mendoza era. He’s coming off a flawless collegiate season, loaded with NFL-quality throws. Stellar pick. Let’s just please remember that Mendoza will be apprenticed to new arrival Kirk Cousins for an indefinite period of time — in fact, that’s Klint Kubiak’s official plan. It’s highly unlikely the rookie will start a full 17-game schedule. Also, no matter how impressive Mendoza may have been at Indiana, the jump to the NFL is messy for pretty much everyone. Three of the last five quarterbacks drafted first overall actually failed to reach 14.5 touchdown passes as rookies, despite the fact that all of them started in opening week. Caleb Williams was the only top pick who cleared the mark with room to spare. Cam Ward strung together four straight multi-touchdown games last December, yet still only delivered 15 on the season. It’s not as if Cousins and Mendoza are taking command of a turnkey offense, either. Currently, the Raiders’ depth chart at wide receiver looks suspiciously like a list of last year’s worst fantasy waiver claims. Mendoza is an excellent long-term answer for Las Vegas, but we shouldn’t expect an immediate statistical binge. Jeremiyah Love, RB, Cardinals, under 975.5 rushing yards Last season’s generational, first-round running back, Ashton Jeanty, started every game and ranked seventh in the league in total carries (266), yet finished with just 975 rushing yards. We will again remind you that NFL defenses are terrifying. Love is a dazzling runner, but he’s stepping into a less-than-ideal offensive environment and working behind a sub-standard O-line. He’s also joining a backfield that retained James Conner and added Tyler Allgeier in free agency, so don’t assume the rookie will function as an every-snap featured back. He only handled 20 or more carries in three games over his three collegiate seasons. Love won’t approach Jeanty’s first-year rushing workload, so he’ll need extreme efficiency and perfect health to challenge the 1,000-yard plateau. Everything might come together for him, but we would not literally bet on it. Carnell Tate, WR, Titans, over 750.5 receiving yards Tennessee entered the draft with a screaming need for receiving talent and left it with a potential star, the consensus top wideout in this year’s class. Tate is an advanced technician — as you’d expect from any Ohio State receiver — and he was simply a contested-catch vacuum against collegiate defensive backs, an unfair player. He should coexist perfectly with short-range slot specialist Wan’Dale Robinson. He’s also an impeccable fit with Ward’s tendencies (and his worst impulses). An incredibly fun pick for a recently un-fun team. It’s not unreasonable to expect a Tetairoa McMillan-ish first season from Tate, complete with 120-plus targets. At that volume, this will become a sweat-free bet. Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Jets, over 450.5 receiving yards As much as any yardage line on the board, this one feels like a gift. Sadiq can actually have a terrible year while still managing to top 450 yards. We’re talking about 26.5 yards per week. If he can produce two or three big plays and a series of 20-yard games, we’re home. Four different rookie tight ends cleared 650 receiving yards last season. We aren’t even asking you to believe in either the Jets generally or Sadiq specifically. If he’s healthy, the draft’s No. 16 overall pick exceeds this number. Jadarian Price, RB, Seahawks, Offensive Rookie of the Year, +1100 Scouting reports on Price were something of a mixed bag leading up to draft night, but there’s no arguing with his landing spot. Seattle was the dream scenario for every back in the 2026 draft class. Zach Charbonnet tore an ACL in January and Kenneth Walker relocated to Kansas City via free agency, replaced only by Emanuel Wilson on a modest one-year deal. The Seahawks are a deeply run-committed team, a fact that certainly won’t change under new OC Brian Fleury, previously Kyle Shanahan’s run game coordinator. Price isn’t a lock to dominate Seattle’s backfield touches while Charbonnet is sidelined, but it’s not as if the competition is daunting. It’s one of the barest cupboards in the league. At this point, general manager John Schneider has put enough draft wins on the board that we should probably trust his instincts when he flags someone as a pet player. Walker and Charbonnet combined for 1,757 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns last year; it shouldn’t be too difficult to imagine Price outpacing and out-compiling Love, given their respective circumstances. One of the nice aspects of Offensive Rookie of the Year is that it has not yet become a QB-only award. McMillan won it last year and five of the past 10 winners have been either receivers or running backs. (Tight ends have been shut out historically, but that position never really advocated for itself until George Kittle gave it a voice.) No one is suggesting that Price should be the runaway OROY favorite, but we can’t exclude a first-round running back from the conversation. Of all the serious contenders, Price offers the best potential payout. Makai Lemon, WR, Eagles, over 650.5 receiving yards and Offensive Rookie of the Year, +950 Lemon was a terror at USC last season, punishing the best defenses on his schedule en route to the Biletnikoff award. After torching Iowa for 10 catches, 153 yards and this filthy touchdown, Kirk Ferentz said, “Number 6 is as good as I’ve seen.” While Lemon has operated primarily from the slot, he’s not purely an underneath option. He’s a monster, sure-handed and fluid, seemingly well-suited to the offense of Philadelphia’s new OC Sean Mannion. (A.J. Brown and Jake Ciely have roughly the same odds of playing football for Philly next season, so don’t fret about competition for targets.) Also, we are once again looking at a player for whom a near-ceiling outcome would vault them into the OROY discussion. Jalen Hurts obviously hasn’t been a volume passer to this point, but he’s traditionally funneled the ball to only 2-3 primary pass-catchers. If Lemon emerges as one of those dudes, he’ll have 650 yards in the bank by the end of November. Jordyn Tyson, WR, Saints, under 800.5 receiving yards For the past six weeks, the Draft Industrial Complex has been warning us about Tyson’s various medical red flags. And yet curiously, he now has the highest yardage total among all the rookie receivers. Feels like a trap, folks. Tyson seems well-paired with second-year Saints QB Tyler Shough and he’s an excellent complement to Chris Olave. No disrespect intended to the player, but he’s going to need full health and the smoothest possible transition in order to hit 800 yards as a secondary receiving option. If this is the projection, Tyson is a fade. Dillon Thieneman, S, Bears, Defensive Rookie of the Year, +2000 I am asking you to please indulge a little wishcasting from a Bears fan who was thrilled to see Thieneman fall to the No. 25 overall selection. If he’s as capable as his collegiate resume suggests, he’ll be an immediate folk hero in Chicago. Thieneman was a tackling machine over his two years at Purdue and one at Oregon (306 total), plus he was a ball-hawk who made one of the signature plays of the Ducks’ 2025 season. He’s a great bet to compile stats and highlights in Dennis Allen’s defense. Thieneman tested like a superhero at the combine (4.35 speed, 41-inch vertical), so we know he possesses the requisite NFL athleticism. He’s now playing in a scheme in which all the numbers belonged to safeties last season. At +2000, Thieneman is the best DROY lottery ticket on the board. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms