Massie Has 99% Chance Of Losing Primary Race, Betting Odds Show

BreakingBusinessMassie Has 99% Chance Of Losing Primary Race, Betting Odds ShowByAntonio Pequeño IV,Forbes Staff. Pequeño is a breaking news reporter who covers tech and more.Follow AuthorMay 19, 2026, 07:45pm EDTToplineElection betting odds sharply swung away from Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., not long after polls closed for his congressional district’s primary Tuesday, marking a massive reversal for the incumbent who less than two weeks ago was largely favored to win the election over Trump-backed former Navy Seal Ed Gallrein.Massie is one of the GOP's most outspoken critics of President Donald Trump. (Photo by Heather Diehl/Getty Images)Key FactsGallrein had 99% odds, Kalshi showed shortly after 7:30 p.m. EDT, while Polymarket showed 99.3% odds for the Trump-endorsed challenger. Massie had odds as high as 78% of winning the primary race less than two weeks ago, Kalshi showed.Gallrein had around 55% support in polls as of shortly after 7:30 p.m. EDT, with Massie just below 45%, according to the Associated Press, which estimated 42% of votes had been counted.This is a developing story. Check back for updates.Got a tip? Share confidential information with Forbes.Editorial StandardsReprints & PermissionsLOADING VIDEO PLAYER...FORBES’ FEATURED Video