Maple Leafs secure fifth-best 2026 NHL Draft Lottery odds

AtlanticBruinsCanadiensLightningMaple LeafsPanthersRed WingsSabresSenatorsMetropolitanBlue JacketsCapitalsDevilsFlyersHurricanesIslandersPenguinsRangersCentralAvalancheBlackhawksBluesJetsMammothPredatorsStarsWildPacificCanucksDucksFlamesGolden KnightsKingsKrakenOilersSharksScores & ScheduleStandingsPodcastsFantasyNHL OddsNHL PicksPlayoff projectionsNHL Draft rankingRed Light NewsletterNHL Regular Toronto has a 42.1 percent chance of keeping its own first-round draft pick. Mike Stobe / NHLI via Getty Images Share article4OTTAWA — The Maple Leafs have secured the fifth-worst record in the NHL and a 42.1 percent chance of keeping their first-round pick. Toronto’s 3-1 loss to the Ottawa Senators in its final game of the season locked the Leafs in 28th overall to finish the 2025-26 NHL season. The NHL Draft Lottery will determine whether the Leafs actually do end up keeping their first-round pick. The date of the lottery has not been formally announced, but it usually takes place during the first week of May. With the lifeless loss, the Leafs also now have the fifth-highest odds of winning either the first or second overall picks. They are now confirmed to have a 24.5 percent chance of landing the fifth-overall pick. Former general manager Brad Treliving traded the Leafs’ first-round pick to the Boston Bruins last season as part of a trade for defenceman Brandon Carlo. Treliving only secured top-five protection on the pick, leading to a race to the bottom through the end of the season for the Leafs. The Leafs are eligible to either win the first or second overall picks in the draft lottery, keep their fifth overall pick or fall to sixth or seventh overall. If the Leafs are awarded the sixth or seventh overall pick in the draft, the pick will be sent to the Bruins. The Leafs’ odds for the NHL Draft lottery will now be as follows: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("[id='datawrapper-chart-dZVj3']");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Heading into the NHL’s Olympic break in early February, finishing fifth from the bottom seemed highly unlikely for the Leafs. Yet an eight-game losing streak out of the Olympic break before losing eight of their final nine games led the Leafs to their worst finish in league standings since finishing dead last in the NHL with 69 points in 2015-16. Landing at least the fifth-overall pick would be the Leafs’ highest draft pick since drafting Auston Matthews first overall in 2016. If the Leafs keep their pick, they would have to send either their 2027 or 2028 first-round pick to the Bruins to satisfy the conditions of the trade. There are multiple stipulations at play: the Leafs sent their 2027 first-round pick to the Philadelphia Flyers as part of a 2025 trade to land Scott Laughton. Keeping their first-round pick is a small piece of solace in an otherwise disastrous season. But the pick could do wonders for a declining Leafs team. They have not had a bona fide high-end prospect since drafting Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner between 2014 and 2016. Should the Leafs land the fifth-overall pick, not to mention the first- or the second-overall pick, Toronto would instantly have the kind of prospect they could consider building their future around. There are multiple names that immediately jump out for Toronto’s fifth-overall pick, should they keep it: the sizeable two-way right shot defender Keaton Verhoeff, the dynamic and offensive blueliner Carson Carels or the uber-intelligent and competitive centre Caleb Malhotra. The domino effect of the Leafs landing a high first-round pick? With a high-end prospect that likely won’t truly be impactful until 2027 at the earliest, the Leafs could commit to getting younger throughout the roster and adjust their window for future contention. Landing a high-end player could also instill some confidence in the likes of Matthews and Nylander over what the team’s future could look like. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Joshua Kloke is a staff writer who has covered the Maple Leafs and Canadian soccer for The Athletic since 2016. Previously, he was a freelance writer for various publications, including Sports Illustrated. Follow Joshua on Twitter @joshuakloke