Last season, it was fairly easy to make an argument that the best division in the NFL was the NFC North. All of the teams in that division were able to win nine games, but the Vikings and the Lions missed the postseason. Will the Lions find a way back into the playoffs this year, or will it be another down year?
I was pretty high on the Lions going into the season last year. I didn’t expect them to take a step back, and for the first portion of the season, I think I was correct. They lost Ben Johnson to the Bears, but I still thought the team would be good with all of their weapons and their defense. The Packers beat them to start the season, and their only other loss in the first seven weeks was to the Chiefs. After the bye week, the wheels kind of fell off as they went 4-6 over their final 10 games. Only one of the final six losses was by more than one score, so perhaps there can be some positive regression coming their way this year.
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As mentioned, with Johnson taking over the Bears, the Lions didn’t have quite as crisp an offense, but they did add Drew Petzing this season, and that should help the offense take a step forward. The team had some changes on the offensive line, but they also did put some moves in place to address it. One change that should be interesting is that they sent away David Montgomery to the Texans. They replaced him with Isiah Pacheco, who is not quite the bruiser that Montgomery was. Aside from that, they gave an extension to a couple of guys, but nothing major.
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I have to imagine that the team, looking at last year’s performance and those close games, thinks they can just make small adjustments in order to get back to the postseason. Without Montgomery, the ball should be in their star, Jahmyr Gibbs’ hands even more. Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the best wide receivers in the league, and Jared Goff has hooked up with him repeatedly. With a strong offensive line, the Lions offense could be very dynamic. On defense, it probably comes down to health. Aidan Hutchinson is a great defensive end, and they have some solid linebackers. I do have concerns about the secondary, but overall they should be fine.
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They have a win total of 10.5, and their schedule sets up fairly well to get those wins. I’m not sure I want to get too involved with it though. I probably would prefer to play them to win the division at +170. I think their schedule is easier than the Bears and Packers, which might mean they only need to beat out the Vikings, a team with a quarterback battle. Another interesting one is for them to have three wins after five games at +170. They faced the Saints, Bills, Jets, Panthers, and Cardinals. The Saints and Jets are at home, and I think both will be wins. I don’t know that they will beat the Bills and Panthers on the road, but they should beat Arizona. I also like St. Brown to be over 1249.5 receiving yards. He has hit that in three consecutive years.
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