Labour jail plan to spark 89,000 more crimes: As Andy Burnham pursues early release scheme, analysis shows sex offenders, robbers and arsonists will cause mayhem

By SOPHIE CHURCH - POLITICAL REPORTER and DAVID BARRETT, HOME AFFAIRS EDITOR Published: 22:18, 9 August 2026 | Updated: 22:18, 9 August 2026 Thousands of Britons will become victims of crime as a result of Andy Burnham's early prison release scheme. Sex offenders, robbers, arsonists and violent criminals will commit nearly 90,000 extra offences after being freed early, according to analysis. Despite mounting public fury, the Prime Minister has decided to pursue the controversial Labour plans which let thousands out of jail before the end of their sentences to ease overcrowding in prisons. But the Conservatives have found that, thanks to Mr Burnham green-lighting the scheme, there will be around 500 added sex offences, nearly 1,800 violent crimes and just under 36,000 thefts before the end of this Parliament in 2029. The grim forecast also estimates that 1,500 crimes for possessing a weapon, more than 7,000 drug-related offences and up to 3,000 public order offences will be recorded. This will lead to an extra 89,225 crimes in total being committed by mid-2029, the Tories found. Tory justice spokesman Nick Timothy said: 'Labour's early release scheme is still set to let thousands of dangerous criminals out early, and this will mean communities seeing dangerous offenders let back on to their streets. 'Nearly 90,000 more offences will be committed over this Parliament because of Andy Burnham's early release scheme – it is a disaster. Conservatives are calling on Labour to finally listen to victims... and bring emergency legislation to end this mess.' Prime Minister Andy Burnham has approved a controversial prison release scheme to ease overcrowding in jails Your browser does not support iframes. The Prime Minister paused the scheme last month after a public outcry over the possible early release of two of the killers of PC Andrew Harper, who was dragged by a car for a mile after responding to a burglary report in 2019. And Mr Burnham is now facing mounting pressure to block more of Britain's worst criminals from being released – after only disqualifying rapists and the most serious sex offenders from the scheme. The Ministry of Justice admitted last month that early release 'may have impacts' on a recent rise in re-offending rates. Early release was introduced by Labour as an emergency measure in September 2024, and has seen 20,000 criminals let out of jail. The new scheme, set to take effect in October, forms part of the Sentencing Act 2026, which aims to ease overcrowding in prisons. In the latest data published by the Government, the proven re-offending rate was 29.9 per cent, up 1.9 per cent on the year before. A Government document admitted 'various policy changes' including its early release scheme 'may have impacts upon... re-offending rates'. But it said: 'It is not possible to isolate the impact of individual policies on re-offending rates'. Nick Timothy, the Tory Shadow Justice Secretary, said the prison release scheme would see 'dangerous offenders' allowed back on the streets Mr Burnham – who jetted off on holiday within weeks of taking the keys to No 10 – has been forced to review whether to block all criminals charged with the death of emergency workers from early release to ensure PC Andrew Harper's killers remain behind bars. A petition to keep them in jail to serve their full sentences had 861,000 signatures on Sunday night. Brian Booth, the deputy national chairman of the Police Federation, said Mr Burnham was 'being watched' by the wider public on 'how he deals with this incident'. While the PM may block the release of PC Harper's killers, a source from the probation officers' union Napo told The Sun that 'more people, largely women, will be killed or harmed' thanks to the scheme. It comes as the Daily Mail revealed last week that 9,300 domestic abusers as well as 363 offenders convicted of manslaughter are set to be released early from prison before the end of this Parliament. Reform UK's home affairs spokesman Zia Yusuf will announce plans on Monday to halt early release for those jailed for murder and serious violent crimes and will vow to deport foreign criminals. He said: 'Andy Burnham is about to release killers from jail early, including the men who killed PC Harper. The Tories released thousands of prisoners early, including murderers and rapists. 'It was the Tories that created the prison capacity crisis, importing 6million net new people through immigration and building just 455 net new prison places to cope. 'Reform will deport all 10,000 foreign nationals from our prisons, sending them to serve their sentences in countries like El Salvador. We will use the space created to ensure serious criminals stay where they belong: behind bars.' Under Labour's new plans, criminals who faced serving two-thirds of their sentence before being considered for release can now be let out after only half their term. Reform UK's justice spokesman Zia Yusuf will announce plans on Monday to stop early release for those convicted of murder and serious violent crimes Less serious offenders will be released after serving just a third of their sentence instead of half. The figures revealing nearly 90,000 extra offences will be committed were gathered using Ministry of Justice data detailing how many criminals committing specific crimes are now up for early release under the scheme. The crimes include sexual, public order, motoring and drug-related offences, theft, robbery, fraud, violence, criminal damage and arson, possession of weapons, fraud and other crimes against society. It was then calculated how much time each criminal will now spend in communities and not in jail, combined with their likelihood of re-offending. This gives an estimate of the number of additional re-offences that will be committed during this Parliament thanks to the Government continuing the early release scheme. A Ministry of Justice spokesman said: 'This is highly speculative and an inaccurate method of calculating the impact of sentencing reforms. Without them, we risk prisons reaching capacity and collapsing. 'If that happened, police could not make arrests, courts could not remand offenders and there would be unchecked criminality on our streets. 'The Sentencing Act is restoring order to a prison system left on the brink of collapse, while our record £700million investment in probation and community punishment ensures staff have the resources... needed to manage offenders safely in the community.'