Labor's Budget gamble has backfired spectacularly - and Australians are turning on Anthony Albanese: PVO

By PETER VAN ONSELEN, POLITICAL EDITOR, AUSTRALIA Published: 00:27, 18 May 2026 | Updated: 00:55, 18 May 2026 The first wave of post-Budget polling tells a story that is simultaneously obvious and unusual. The Budget has gone down badly; that much is certainly clear. Voters think it will hurt them personally, worsen inflation, and divide generations rather than repair the housing market. Yet the political damage is not causing support for the government to bleed to the Opposition. Instead, the Budget has amplified a bigger structural shift already underway: the major parties are both weakened, but the Coalition is not the automatic beneficiary of Labor's pain. That is the real story across Newspoll, Resolve, Roy Morgan and Freshwater surveys. One Nation continues to rise, but it almost certainly cannot challenge Labor to form government. Newspoll is the most striking of the polls because it shows a brutal verdict on the Budget without a commensurate collapse in Labor's vote. Labor's primary vote remains unchanged at 31 per cent, while the Coalition slips to 20 per cent, One Nation rises to 27 per cent, and the Greens sit at 12 per cent. On the Budget itself, the numbers are grim for Labor and Albanese: 52 per cent expect to be worse off and only 11 per cent better off; 47 per cent say the Budget is bad for the economy, compared with 22 per cent who say it is good; and 48 per cent expect it to worsen inflation. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's popularity has waned following last week's Federal Budget Opposition Leader Angus Taylor (pictured) has surged past Anthony Albanese as Australia's preferred Prime Minister in one poll Newspoll also finds the Budget's economic rating is the worst since the Keating government's 1993 Budget, while its personal impact rating is the worst since the Abbott government's 2014 Budget. But here is the paradox: Albo is still ahead of Angus Taylor as preferred prime minister in Newspoll, 46 to 38 per cent, despite a disapproval rating of 57 per cent. Taylor has improved slightly, but not by enough to make the Coalition look like a government-in-waiting. Resolve points in the same direction, albeit with one big difference that will make the opposition leader smile. Its post-Budget poll has Labor's primary vote down to 29 per cent, the Coalition unchanged on 23 per cent, One Nation up to 24 per cent, and the Greens at 12 per cent. But it also has Taylor ahead of Albo as preferred PM, 33 to 30 per cent, with a large 37 per cent undecided. That is significant because Albo's authority is leaking away in the wake of his broken promises stacking up. Resolve also shows that voters are more supportive of the capital gains tax changes and negative gearing changes, despite the broken promises, but the overall Budget still leaves more voters saying it is bad rather than good for their households. The issue is not just policy substance; it is trust, timing and competence in managing the economy during these difficult times. According to Resolve, 36 per cent of voters say broken promises have damaged their view of Labor. Roy Morgan's polling is the wildest of the lot. Its snap SMS poll was conducted immediately after Budget night, putting One Nation's primary vote higher than Labor's, at 32 per cent to 28.5 per cent, with the Coalition on just 16.5 per cent. The popularity of One Nation and Pauline Hanson continues to rise, but it almost certainly can't challenge Labor to form government. What do you think is driving Australians to abandon the major parties and turn to alternatives like One Nation? What's your view?On a two-party preferred basis, Morgan has Labor narrowly ahead of One Nation, by 51 to 49 per cent. Morgan also registers 59 per cent disapproval of Albanese's performance. Freshwater polling has Labor and the Coalition tied at 50-50 on the two-party preferred vote, after Labor led 53 to 47 per cent pre-Budget. But the Coalition still trails both Labor and One Nation on primary votes. Freshwater also finds that more than double those surveyed rate the Budget negatively for the economy (46 per cent) rather than positively (21 per cent). Taken together, the polls suggest the Budget has failed the basic voter test: they see higher taxes, inflation risks, housing uncertainty and intergenerational conflict. That is politically toxic for a government already battling cost-of-living fatigue. The housing reforms are not necessarily unpopular in isolation, but voters have noticed the broken promises, hence the hit to the PM's credibility. Support for the ideas is being overwhelmed by distrust in the execution. Labor's problems, however, are far from terminal because the Coalition remains deeply damaged and under siege on its right flank from One Nation. Pauline Hanson's party is now more than a protest footnote. Across the post-Budget polls, its primary vote is higher than the Coalition's and even pips Labor, according to Morgan's findings. The precise numbers vary, but the political message does not: a large bloc of voters is turned off the Labor Party, but they are parking their anger outside the two-party system. Albanese's personal standing is becoming a problem in its own right. Newspoll still has him ahead as preferred PM, but Resolve has the hapless Taylor narrowly in front, and Morgan records particularly heavy disapproval of the PM. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers have come under fire over their broken promises The old two party system is no longer capable of containing voter anger, according to Daily Mail political editor, Peter Van Onselen (pictured) The deeper danger for Labor is that Albo's brand was built on trust. However the broken promises in the Budget have taken that away. Voters often dislike Budgets before adjusting to them. Treasurer Jim Chalmers can argue that tough decisions were necessary, housing reform requires upsetting entrenched interests, and the Coalition has no credible alternative vision.  Taylor sought to challenge that with ideas announced in his Budget reply. However, Newspoll finds voters still don't believe the opposition would have delivered a better Budget, by 47 to 39 per cent. Voters who reject the government aren't automatically embracing the opposition. They can move to One Nation, teals or the Greens. That makes Labor's task more complicated and the Coalition's predicament more serious. The post-Budget polling reveals a government wounded by its own choices, such as broken promises and perhaps even intergenerational hypocrisy amongst its older MPs such as Albo, benefiting from rules it's changing. But opposition still doesn't look credible, and protest voting is rapidly becoming the central fact of Australian politics. The Budget may or may not survive the policy debate to come, but politically it has confirmed that the old two party system is no longer capable of containing voter anger. No comments have so far been submitted. Why not be the first to send us your thoughts, or debate this issue live on our message boards. By posting your comment you agree to our house rules. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual We will automatically post your comment and a link to the news story to your Facebook timeline at the same time it is posted on MailOnline. To do this we will link your MailOnline account with your Facebook account. We’ll ask you to confirm this for your first post to Facebook. You can choose on each post whether you would like it to be posted to Facebook. Your details from Facebook will be used to provide you with tailored content, marketing and ads in line with our Privacy Policy.