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bilançosuna çevrildi.Ali Canberk Özbuğutu16 Mayıs 2026•Güncelleme: 16 Mayıs 2026İstanbulOrta Doğu'daki gerilimlerin gölgesinde haftaya yön arayışıyla başlayan küresel piyasalarda, ABD Başkanı Trump'ın Çin'e gerçekleştirdiği ziyarette iyimser bir hava esmesiyle teknoloji öncülüğünde risk iştahının görece arttığı görüldü. Trump'ın gerçekleştirdiği ziyarete önde gelen şirket yöneticilerinin eşlik etmesi, yapay zeka ve teknoloji alanında büyük yatırımların önünün açılabileceğine yönelik beklentileri kuvvetlendirse de ABD/İsrail-İran Savaşı'nın henüz tam olarak sonlanmaması ve yüksek seyreden petrol fiyatlarının olumsuz etkilerinin makroekonomik verilerde belirginleşmesi yatırımcı iştahını törpüledi. ABD-İran hattından gelen çelişkili mesajlar petrol fiyatları üzerinde etkili olurken bu durum küresel ölçekte makro görünüme yönelik endişeleri devam ettirdi. Trump'ın, İran ile ateşkesin "yaşam desteğine bağlı şekilde sürdüğünü" söylemesi, bölgede gerilimin kısa sürede azalacağına yönelik beklentileri zayıflattı. Artan petrol fiyatlarının ekonomiye negatif yansımaları ABD'nin enflasyon verilerinde izlendi. Ülkede tüketici enflasyonu yıllık bazda yüzde 3,8 ile tahminlerin üzerinde gerçekleşirken üretici enflasyonu da beklentileri keskin şekilde aştı ve salgın sonrası dönemin en hızlı yükselişine işaret etti. Enerji maliyetlerindeki artışın enflasyon üzerindeki ikincil etkileri, taşımacılık faaliyetleri üzerinden belirginleşmeye başladı. Bu gelişmelerin ardından piyasalarda ABD Merkez Bankasının (Fed) yıl sonunda faiz artırımına gidebileceği ihtimalleri yüzde 65'e yükselirken olası bir indirim olası fiyatlamalardan çıktı. Savaş öncesinde para piyasalarında Fed'in yıl genelinde toplam 2 faiz indirimi yapabileceği fiyatlanırken beklentiler terse döndü. Beklentilerin seyrini savaşın gidişatı belirleyecek olsa da halihazırda enerji başta olmak üzere maliyet kaynaklı baskıların enflasyonda ikincil etkileri artırabileceği ifade ediliyor. Güçlenen enflasyon endişeleriyle tahvil faizleri yükseliş eğilimini sürdürdü. ABD'nin 5, 10, 20 ve 30 yıllık tahvil faizleri sert şekilde yükselerek yaklaşık son 1 yılın zirvelerine ulaştı. ABD 10 yıllık tahvil faizi cuma günü yüzde 4,55'e çıkarak Mayıs 2025'ten bu yana en yüksek seviyesini gördü. Gelecek hafta, Orta Doğu'daki gelişmelerin yanında yapay zeka temasının seyri üzerinde kritik değer taşıyan Nvidia'nın bilançosu ve Fed'in toplantı tutanakları yakından takip edilecek. Diğer taraftan Trump'ın Fed başkanlığına aday gösterdiği Kevin Warsh, Senato'dan onay aldı. Fed'den yapılan açıklamada, Jerome Powell'ın başkanlık görev süresinin sona erdiği belirtildi. Warsh'un yemin ederek göreve başlamasının beklendiği kaydedilen açıklamada, Fed Yönetim Kurulunun, Warsh yeni başkan olarak yemin edene kadar Powell'ı geçici başkan olarak atadığı bildirildi. Bu gelişmelerle ABD'nin 10 yıllık tahvil faizi önceki haftaya göre yaklaşık 20 baz puan artışla yüzde 4,54'te, dolar endeksi ise haftalık bazda yüzde 1,4 artışla 99,3 seviyesinde kapandı. Orta Doğu'daki gerilimlerin oluşturduğu risklerin ortadan kalkmaması, enflasyon endişeleriyle faiz artırımına ilişkin beklentilerin güçlenmesiyle altının onsu haftalık bazda yüzde 3,8 düşüşle 4 bin 540 dolara indi. Brent petrolün varil fiyatı da arz endişeleriyle yüzde 7,4 artışla 106,2 dolara yükseldi. New York borsasında geçen hafta karışık bir seyir öne çıktı. Haftalık bazda New York borsasında S&P 500 yüzde 0,13 yükselirken, Nasdaq endeksi yüzde 0,38 ve Dow Jones endeksi yüzde 0,17 düştü. Makroekonomik verilere göre ABD'de ikinci el konut satışları nisanda yüzde 0,2 artmasına rağmen piyasa beklentilerinin altında kaldı. ABD'de sanayi üretimi, nisanda aylık bazda yüzde 0,7 ile beklentilerin üzerinde artış gösterdi. Fed New York şubesinin açıkladığı imalat endeksi, mayısta 19,6 değerine çıkarak beklentilerin üzerinde gerçekleşti. Gelecek hafta salı bekleyen konut satışları, çarşamba Fed toplantı tutanakları, perşembe S&P Global imalat sanayi ve hizmet sektörü PMI, konut başlangıçları, inşaat izinleri, Philadelphia Fed imalat endeksi, haftalık işsizlik maaşı başvuruları, cuma Michigan tüketici güven endeksi takip edilecek. Avrupa borsalarında geçen hafta negatif bir seyir öne çıktı. Bölgede mevcut küresel gelişmelerin yanı sıra İngiltere'deki seçim süreci öne çıktı. İngiltere Başbakanı Keir Starmer, ülkede yapılan yerel seçimlerdeki ağır yenilgisi sonrası istifayı düşünmediğini, sürekli değişimin ülkeyi kaosa sürüklediğini söyledi. Ülkede siyasi belirsizliklerin artabileceği endişeleriyle tahvil faizlerinde sert yükselişler görülürken sterlin/dolar paritesi haftalık bazda yüzde 1,9 azalışla 1,3325'e indi. Bunun yanı sıra İngiltere'de 1. çeyrek gayrisafi yurt içi hasıla (GSYH) önceki çeyreğe göre yüzde 0,6 ile beklentiler dahilinde gerçekleşirken yıllık yüzde 1,1 ile beklentilerin üzerinde geldi. Almanya Merkez Bankası (Bundesbank) Başkanı Joachim Nagel enerji maliyetlerindeki artışın enflasyon beklentilerini tehdit etmesi durumunda Avrupa Merkez Bankasının (ECB) faiz artışına gitmesinin güçlü bir seçenek olduğunu belirterek, "Haziran ayında tekrar bir araya geleceğiz ve yeni veriler ışığında kararımızı vereceğiz." dedi. Gelecek hafta Avro Bölgesi ve İngiltere'de enflasyon verileri karşılanacak. Analistler, İngiltere'deki enflasyon verilerinde olası hızlanma işaretlerinin ülke tahvil piyasasındaki satış baskını artırabileceğini kaydetti. Öte yandan Avrupa İstatistik Ofisi (Eurostat) ile Avrupa Birliği (AB) verilerine göre Avro Bölgesi'nde, yılın ilk çeyreğinde GSYH önceki çeyreğe göre yüzde 0,1, yıllık bazda yüzde 0,8 artarak beklentiler dahilinde gerçekleşti. Bölgede sanayi üretimi martta bir önceki aya göre yüzde 0,2 artarken yıllık bazda yüzde 2,1 geriledi. Piyasa beklentileri, Avro Bölgesi’nde mart ayında sanayi üretiminin aylık bazda yüzde 0,3 artacağı, yıllık bazda yüzde 1,7 düşeceği yönündeydi. Bu gelişmelerle geçen hafta İngiltere'de FTSE 100 endeksi yüzde 0,44, Fransa'da CAC 40 endeksi yüzde 1,97, İtalya'da MIB 30 endeksi yüzde 0,35 ve Almanya'da DAX endeksi yüzde 1,65 düştü. Gelecek hafta salı ILO işsizlik oranı, çarşamba Avro Bölgesi ve İngiltere'de enflasyon, Almanya'da ÜFE, perşembe Avro Bölgesi, İngiltere, Almanya'da imalat sanayi ve hizmet sektörü PMI, cuma Almanya'da büyüme ile IFO iş ortamı güven endeksi verileri takip edilecek. Asya tarafında da geçen hafta negatif bir seyir izlenirken gelecek hafta açıklanacak Nvidia bilançosu, ABD-Çin arasında olası anlaşma duyuruları ve Orta Doğu'daki gelişmeler yatırımcıların odağında yer alıyor. Geçen hafta Çin'de açıklanan enflasyon verileri ise fiyat artışlarındaki hızlanma eğiliminin devam ettiğini gösterdi. Ülkede, nisan ayına ilişkin Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi (TÜFE) yüzde 1,2 artarak beklentilerin üzerinde gerçekleşti. Ülkede, TÜFE mart ayında yüzde 1 artmıştı. Çin'de nisan ayına ilişkin Üretici Fiyat Endeksi (ÜFE) ise yüzde 2,8 ile Temmuz 2022'den bu yana en hızlı yükselişini kaydetti. Mart ayında yüzde 0,5 artan ÜFE'nin nisanda yüzde 1,8 artış kaydetmesi bekleniyordu. Çin Merkez Bankası (PBOC) Orta Doğu'daki çatışmaların tetiklediği yüksek petrol ve emtia fiyatlarından kaynaklanacak ithal enflasyon riskine karşı uyarıda bulundu. Banka, ithal enflasyonun ekonomi üzerindeki etkisinin izlenmesi gerektiğini ifade etti. Diğer taraftan Japonya Merkez Bankasının (BoJ) nisan ayı toplantısının tutanakları yayımlandı. Şahin görüşlerin hakim olduğu tutanaklarda, "Orta Doğu'daki durum belirsizliğini koruyor ve mevcut koşullar, politika faiz oranının acilen yükseltilmesi gerektiğine işaret etmiyor." ifadelerine yer verildi. Japonya'da yükselen enerji fiyatlarının enflasyonist baskıları tetiklemesiyle ülkede 20 yıllık tahvil faizi yüzde 3,49'a çıkarak Ağustos 1996'dan bu yana en yüksek seviyeyi gördü. Yendeki zayıflık da devam ederken dolar/yen paritesi haftalık bazda yüzde 1,2 artışla 158,8 seviyesine çıktı. Yendeki zayıflığın enflasyonist riskleri ve tahvil piyasasındaki satış baskısını artırması Japonya Merkez Bankasının (BoJ) faiz artırımına gideceğine yönelik öngörülerin güçlenmesine neden oldu. Söz konusu gelişmelerle haftalık bazda, Güney Kore'de Kospi endeksi yüzde 0,06, Çin'de Şanghay bileşik endeksi yüzde 1,07, Hong Kong'da Hang Seng endeksi yüzde 1,63 ve Japonya'da Nikkei 225 endeksi yüzde 2,08 düştü. Gelecek hafta pazartesi Çin'de sanayi üretimi, perakende satışlar, salı Japonya'da büyüme, sanayi üretimi, kapasite kullanım oranı, cuma Japonya'da enflasyon verileri takip edilecek. Yurt içinde geçen hafta satış ağırlıklı bir seyir izleyen Borsa İstanbul'da BIST 100 endeksi haftalık bazda yüzde 4,61 düşüşle 14.367,60 puandan kapandı. Öte yandan geçen hafta yılın ikinci Enflasyon Raporu'nun tanıtımı amacıyla İstanbul Finans Merkezi'ndeki Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Yerleşkesi'nde düzenlenen bilgilendirme toplantısında konuşan TCMB Başkanı Fatih Karahan, "Enflasyonun 2026 yıl sonunda yüzde 26, 2027 yıl sonunda ise yüzde 15 olarak gerçekleşeceğini tahmin ediyoruz. Enflasyonun 2028 yıl sonunda yüzde 9’a geriledikten sonra orta vadede enflasyon hedefi olan yüzde 5 seviyesinde istikrar kazanacağını öngörüyoruz." dedi. Karahan, "2026 yılı ara hedefimizi yüzde 24’e, 2027 yılı ara hedefimizi yüzde 15’e, 2028 yılı ara hedefimizi ise yüzde 9 seviyesine yükselttik" diye konuştu. Dolar/TL, haftayı önceki haftalık kapanışın yüzde 0,3 üzerinde 45,4950'den tamamladı. Gelecek hafta yurt içinde pazartesi tüketici güven endeksi, işsizlik oranı, çarşamba konut fiyat endeksi, cuma dış ticaret dengesi, kapasite kullanım oranı ve reel kesim güven endeksi takip edilecek. 19 Mayıs Atatürk'ü Anma, Gençlik ve Spor Bayramı nedeniyle salı günü Borsa İstanbul işleme kapalı olacak. Haberi PaylaşAnadolu Ajansı web sitesinde, AA Haber Akış Sistemi (HAS) üzerinden abonelere sunulan haberler, özetlenerek yayımlanmaktadır.Abonelik için lütfen iletişime geçiniz.