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somut bir anlaşmaya varılamaması piyasalarda jeopolitik risk fiyatlamalarının sürmesine neden oluyor. Orta Doğu'da 8 Nisan'da sağlanan ateşkes kapsamında taraflar müzakere masasından olumlu bir sonuçla kalkamazken, her geçen gün yeni tehditkar açıklamalar söz konusu ateşkes sürecinin kırılgan yapısını gözler önüne seriyor. Bölgede her an tansiyonun yeniden tırmanabileceği ihtimali fiyatlamaları zorluyor. ABD Başkanı Donald Trump, İran'ın Hürmüz Boğazı'nın açılmasıyla ilgili "derhal ve hızlıca harekete geçmeleri" gerektiği konusunda uyarıda bulundu. İran'a yönelik sert ifadeler kullanan Trump, "Aksi takdirde kendilerinden geriye hiçbir şey kalmayacak. Zaman kritik önem taşıyor." değerlendirmesinde bulundu. Hürmüz Boğazı'ndan tanker sevkiyatlarının sağlıklı biçimde sürdürülememesi ve yükselen sigorta maliyetleri küresel çapta enerji arzına ilişkin endişelerin sürmesine yol açarken, bu durum petrol fiyatlarındaki yukarı yönlü hareketi besliyor. Artan petrol fiyatlarının makroekonomik görünüme yönelik olumsuz etkileri, dünya genelinde açıklanan enflasyon verilerinde belirgin şekilde hissediliyor. Süregelen fiyat baskıları, merkez bankalarına ilişkin beklentilerin daha "şahin" bir çizgiye kaymasına yol açıyor. ABD'de açıklanan son veriler, özellikle üretici enflasyonunda sert bir ivmelenmeye işaret ederken, diğer merkez bankalarından sonra ABD Merkez Bankasının (Fed) da gelecek dönemde faiz artırımlarına yönelebileceğine ilişkin öngörüleri güçlendirdi. Savaş öncesinde para piyasalarında Fed'in yıl genelinde toplam 2 faiz indirimi yapabileceği fiyatlanıyordu. Savaş sonrası yaşanan belirsizliklerle bu tahminler terse döndü. Piyasa fiyatlamaları, Fed'in aralık toplantısında yüzde 70 ihtimalle 25 baz puanlık faiz artışına gidebileceğine işaret ediyor. Enflasyonun bir süre yüksek kalacağı endişeleri ve Fed'e yönelik artan faiz artımı ihtimalleri tahvil piyasalarında satış baskısını artırdı. ABD'nin 5 ve 10 yıllık tahvil faizleri yaklaşık 16 ayın, 20 ve 30 yıllık tahvil getirileri ise yaklaşık son 3 yılın zirvelerine ulaştı. Cuma günü yüzde 4,59 seviyesine yükselen ABD'nin 10 yıllık tahvil faizi yeni haftada yüzde 4,63'e çıktı. Analistler, uzun vadeli tahvil getirilerinin kısa vadelilere göre daha fazla yükselmesinin piyasaların artık yapısal olarak daha yüksek enflasyon ve daha yüksek faiz ortamını fiyatlamaya başladığı şeklinde yorumlanabileceğini kaydetti. Bu gelişmelerin yanı sıra Beyaz Saray, Trump'ın Çin ziyaretinde mutabakata varılan ekonomik başlıkları duyurdu. Buna göre Çin, nadir toprak elementleri ve diğer kritik minerallere ilişkin tedarik zincirindeki aksaklıklara dair ABD’nin endişelerini giderecek. Ayrıca nadir toprak üretimi ve işleme ekipmanları ile teknolojilerinin satışına yönelik yasaklar veya kısıtlamalar konusundaki ABD endişeleri de ele alınacak. Çin, Çinli havayolu şirketleri adına Amerikan yapımı 200 adet Boeing uçağının alımını onayladı. Çin, Ekim 2025’te verdiği soya fasulyesi alım taahhütlerine ek olarak, 2026, 2027 ve 2028 yıllarında ABD tarım ürünlerinden yılda en az 17 milyar dolarlık alım yapacak. Orta Doğu'daki gerilimlerin zincirleme etkileriyle cuma günü yüzde 2,4 düşüşle 4 bin 540 dolara inen altının ons fiyatı yeni işlem gününde yüzde 0,1 yükselişle 4 bin 545 dolardan alıcı buluyor. Fed'e ilişkin tahminlerin "şahin" tarafa kaymasıyla cuma günü 99,3 seviyesine çıkan dolar endeksi yeni günde yatay seyrediyor. Brent petrolün varil fiyatı ise Orta Doğu'daki risklerin gölgesinde haftaya yüzde 1,7 artışla 107,9 dolardan başladı. ABD'de endeks vadeli kontratlar ise haftaya negatif başladı. Ayrıca bu hafta, Orta Doğu'daki gelişmelerin yanında yapay zeka temasının seyri üzerinde kritik değer taşıyan Nvidia'nın bilançosu ve Fed'in toplantı tutanakları yakından takip edilecek. Orta Doğu'daki gerilimlerle enerji maliyetlerinin yüksek seyrini koruması ve İngiltere'de siyasi belirsizliklere yol açabilecek düzeydeki gelişmeler Avrupa gündeminin odağını oluşturuyor. Bölgede enerji maliyetlerinin yüksek seyrini koruması halihazırdaki enflasyon korkularını körüklerken, piyasalarda Avrupa Merkez Bankası (ECB) yıl sonuna kadar toplam 3 faiz artışı yapabileceği fiyatlanmaya devam ediyor. Bu hafta Avro Bölgesi ve İngiltere'de açıklanacak enflasyon verileri söz konusu risklerin seyrine ilişkin net bilgi sağlayacak. Analistler, İngiltere'deki enflasyon verilerinde olası hızlanma işaretlerinin ülke tahvil piyasasındaki satış baskısını artırabileceğini kaydetti. Öte yandan Avrupa Birliği (AB) Dış İlişkiler ve Güvenlik Politikası Yüksek Temsilcisi Kaja Kallas, ABD, Çin ve Rusya'nın "AB'yi sevmediğini" belirterek, "Bu güçlerin Avrupa Birliği'ni dağıtmak istemesinin nedeni, bir arada olduğumuzda çok daha güçlü olmamızdır." dedi. Avrupa'da endeks vadeli kontratlar haftaya negatif başladı. Asya borsalarında Güney Kore hariç negatif bir seyir öne çıkarken, Çin'de sanayi ve tüketim verileri beklentilerin altında kaldı. Ülkede sanayi üretimi nisanda yıllık bazda yüzde 4,1 artsa da beklentilerin altında kaldı ve önceki aya göre yavaşlama eğilimi gösterdi. Perakende satışlar da yüzde 0,2 ile tahminlerin epey altında kaldı. Zayıf gelen Çin verileri bölgede ekonomik aktiviteye yönelik endişeleri artırdı. Güney Kore piyasası yapay zeka teması nedeniyle çip talebi beklentilerinin güçlü kalmasıyla bölgede pozitif ayrıştı. Öte yandan Japonya'da dolar/yen paritesi yükseliş eğilimini sürdürerek 159,07 seviyesine çıktı. Dolar/yen paritesindeki artış ülkede enflasyon endişelerini körüklemesinin yanında tahvil faizlerinde de yukarı yönlü hareketi tetikledi. Japonya'da 10 yıllık tahvil faizi yüzde 2,74'e çıkarak 1995'ten bu yana en yüksek seviyesine ulaştı. Söz konusu gelişmelerle kapanışa yakın Japonya'da Nikkei 225 endeksi yüzde 0,7, Hong Kong'da Hang Seng endeksi yüzde 1,4 ve Çin'de Şanghay bileşik endeksi yüzde 0,2 düşerken, Güney Kore'de Kospi endeksi yüzde 0,3 yükseldi. Cuma günü, satış ağırlıklı bir seyir izleyen Borsa İstanbul'da BIST 100 endeksi, günü yüzde 1,89 değer kaybederek 14.367,60 puandan tamamladı. Borsa İstanbul Vadeli İşlem ve Opsiyon Piyasası'nda (VİOP) BIST 30 endeksine dayalı haziran vadeli kontrat ise cuma akşam seansında normal seans kapanışına göre yüzde 0,32 geriledi. Dolar/TL kuru cuma gününü 45,4950'den tamamlarken, bugün bankalararası piyasanın açılışında önceki kapanışın yüzde 0,2 üzerinde 45,5770'ten işlem görüyor. Öte yandan, yarın 19 Mayıs Atatürk’ü Anma, Gençlik ve Spor Bayramı nedeniyle Borsa İstanbul işleme kapalı olacak. Analistler, bugün yurt içinde tüketici güven endeksi ve işsizlik oranının takip edileceğini, yurt dışında ise veri gündeminin sakin olduğunu belirterek, teknik açıdan BIST 100 endeksinde 14.500 ve 14.400 puanın destek, 14.700 ve 14.800 seviyelerinin ise direnç konumunda olduğunu kaydetti. Piyasalarda bugün takip edilecek veriler şöyle: 10.00 Türkiye, mayıs ayı tüketici güven endeksi 10.00 Türkiye, nisan ayı işsizlik oranı Haberi PaylaşAnadolu Ajansı web sitesinde, AA Haber Akış Sistemi (HAS) üzerinden abonelere sunulan haberler, özetlenerek yayımlanmaktadır.Abonelik için lütfen iletişime geçiniz.