Kentucky Derby history shows 'real' 2026 favorite and 2 long shots with upset potential

Everyone loves a longshot, but here’s an underappreciated fact about the Kentucky Derby: It’s kinda chalky.No doubt “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports” can live up to its nickname. In 2024, Mystik Dan half-nosed out Sierra Leone and Forever Young to win the Derby’s first three-horse photo finish since 1947. In 2022, Rich Strike pulled off a win at 80-1 odds, the second-steepest in the race’s history, which is now 152 years old. And as we approach this weekend, you’ll find plenty of pundits talking about how a favorite hasn’t won the Derby since Justify in 2018.Advertisement