IRSA okays 15% Kharif shortfall

Pakistan's Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has approved a projected water shortfall of up to 15 per cent for early Kharif 2026, while setting provincial water withdrawals at 67.451 million acre-feet (MAF), as officials warned of persistent supply pressures despite improved reservoir storage. The decision was taken at a meeting of the IRSA Advisory Committee on Tuesday, chaired by IRSA Chairman Amjad Saeed, to finalize water availability criteria for the Kharif season (April–September). Officials said Rim-Station inflows are projected at 103.30 MAF, including 24.48 MAF for Early Kharif and 78.81 MAF for Late Kharif. The committee approved a 15pc shortfall for early Kharif (April to 10 June), subject to review in the first week of May 2026. The shortfall for Late Kharif was approved at 5%. Provincial allocations include Punjab at 33.357 MAF, Sindh 30.403 MAF, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (CRBC) 0.823 MAF, and Balochistan 2.868 MAF, compared with last year's total usage of 60.558 MAF and a 10-year average of 62.252 MAF. The committee noted that Rabi 2025–26 (Oct-March) inflows totaled 21.782 MAF, slightly below the anticipated 22.016 MAF, reflecting a 1pc shortfall. However, system storage stood at 2.307 MAF on March 31, significantly higher than 0.384 MAF last year and the 10-year average of 1.351 MAF. The Pakistan Meteorolo-gical Department forecast normal to above-normal rainfall from April to June, particularly in western and northern regions, but warned temperatures would remain above normal nationwide. IRSA also raised alarm over declining storage at Tarbela Dam, where live capacity has dropped from 5.827 MAF in May 2022 to 5.580 MAF in March 2026, a nearly 48pc overall reduction due to sedimentation. Officials directed WAPDA to submit a detailed mitigation plan. The committee endorsed operational timelines for Tarbela's T4 hydropower plant, expected to become functional after May 7, while stressing close coordination to manage reservoir constraints during ongoing construction at the T5 project.