Inside the 257-pick mock draft, plus Dane Brugler's potential first-round surprise

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Let’s go. This article is from The Athletic’s NFL newsletter. Sign up here to receive it directly in your inbox. I’m not sure when Dane first decided to mock the entire NFL draft, but he’s been doing it well for years. He was unbelievably accurate in 2024, and some GMs surely wish they’d followed the picks he missed, like Brian Thomas Jr. to the Bills. Similar story last April. I don’t need to explain why that’s hard. In an extremely competitive league, teams don’t want outsiders to know their draft-day probabilities. Unfortunately for them, we have Dane. Here’s how he projects the first round, which begins next Thursday (!!) at 8 p.m. Eastern: 1. The Cowboys trade up. They move for Ohio State inside linebacker Sonny Styles and the No. 39 pick by sending two first-round picks (No. 12 and 20) and a fourth to Cleveland. Dallas addresses its biggest need with a potential star at a reasonable cost. I back it. 2. This is an elite safety class. We should see three first-rounders: Ohio State’s Caleb Downs, Oregon’s Dillon Thieneman and Toledo’s Emmanuel McNeil-Warren. Highly recommend Ted Nguyen’s film briefing on the safties. This group reminds me of 2018, which produced Minkah Fitzpatrick, Derwin James, Jessie Bates III and Justin Reid. Also, keep Cam Ward in your thoughts. Last year’s No. 1 pick desperately needs playmakers, but here, Tennessee waits until the sixth round to draft Kendrick Law, Dane’s 22nd-ranked receiver. Meanwhile, the Rams give Matthew Stafford another elite weapon in Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson at No. 13. Those are the breaks, Cam. All 257 picks are unlocked for you here. And now we’ll hear directly from the author about the quarterback-turned-linebacker who is skyrocketing up draft boards. Over to Dane. This year’s linebacker draft class has an ace at the top in Styles, fourth overall in The Beast. After him, though, it’s a matter of taste, fit and skill set. My next four linebackers — Texas Tech’s Jacob Rodriguez, Georgia’s CJ Allen, Cincinnati’s Jake Golday and Texas’ Anthony Hill Jr. — all rank between 40 and 50. But Rodriguez is my No. 2 behind Styles. If you caught Wednesday’s episode of “The Athletic Football Show,” you heard me explain why. “It’s just been a steady climb for Rodriguez. He had an outstanding season, obviously. At first, I was like, ‘OK, the tape’s good, this guy might go Day 2.’ Then seeing him up close at the Senior Bowl, I was like, ‘Yeah, this is a this is someone that’s trending toward being a top-50 guy.’ The combine was another data point. “You just you run out of reasons why this guy shouldn’t be the No. 2 linebacker. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he ended up on Thursday night (in the first round). It just depends on who’s picking where.” Click to listen to or watch the entire episode, which covers the full linebacker class. Back to Jacob. One thing I quickly learned at The Athletic is how informed my colleagues are. They often know what’s going to happen before it does. For example, in 2024, our Eagles beat reporter, Brooks Kubena, projected Philly to use its No. 22 pick on cornerback Quinyon Mitchell. In a different mock, with Mitchell off the board, he took Cooper DeJean. The Eagles drafted both. Here’s what my colleagues are learning about this year’s first round: Those Eagles have a dream pick. His name is Kenyon Sadiq. He played tight end at Oregon. He has an all-time athletic profile. Philly drafts 23rd, and I’d expect Howie Roseman to continue snatching draft-day fallers. This year’s could be Sadiq. John Harbaugh has a tough decision. The Giants pick fifth, which means Jeremiyah Love, Styles or Downs should be available. New York needs help at running back, linebacker and safety, but a No. 5 pick for a non-premium position? Harbaugh likes the running back, FWIW. The Bills want an edge rusher. Joe Buscaglia shared the 26 best fits for Buffalo, holders of the 26th pick. Nine were edge rushers to replace free agent Joey Bosa. Keep an eye on Texas A&M’s Cashius Howell. He’d be a reach (No. 39 in The Beast) but is a strong fit for new coordinator Jim Leonhard. I’m not sure who drafts Love, this class’ second-best player, per Dane. Jeff Howe makes the case for why teams should ignore position value when it comes to the safest prospect in this class. “He’s not far off from a Saquon (Barkley) type of impact,” said one scout. “He’s going high. You can poke holes in a few of the guys (in the top 10), but very little with (Love).” Read the full story here. 📕 The George Kittle story. In 2017, the 49ers drafted a tight end prospect with character concerns. A fifth-round pick known as “a frat guy, a social butterfly, a party animal.” Yet Kyle Shanahan saw something there. 👔 #OpenToWork. I once saw a joke that the first social media for AI bots was created in 2002. It’s called LinkedIn. As of 2026, likely No. 1 pick Mendoza isn’t the only NFL name with a profile. One player can solve a Rubik’s cube behind his back. 👎 #HomeFromWork. The NFL is onboarding potential replacement officials and telling teams that it’s a contingency plan, for now. I hope that’s true. One last thing. As you may have heard, one of my co-authors here, Dianna Russini, resigned from The Athletic earlier this week. I’ll always be grateful to her for working with me, then (and still, to be clear) a relatively unknown lawyer-turned-sportswriter. For checking in during my battle with cancer from 2024 to 2025. For celebrating its conclusion. For breaking important stories. For improving this newsletter for all of us. I once asked her how she handled the pressure of an intensely public job. “Be fearless,” she said. I’ll never forget that. I hope she doesn’t either. 📫 Enjoyed this read? Sign up here to receive The Athletic’s free NFL newsletter in your inbox.  Also, check out our other newsletters. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Jacob Robinson is a staff writer for The Athletic’s NFL football newsletter. Prior to The Athletic, he worked full time as a corporate lawyer at a multi-national law firm. While in law school, Jacob started a fantasy football-focused newsletter, Morning Huddle, and has since sent millions of emails to football fans. Follow Jacob on Twitter @jacobrobinsonjd