I Nailed a Robotaxi Forecast In 2013. Here’s Why Elon Keeps Blowing It

InnovationTransportationI Nailed a Robotaxi Forecast In 2013. Here’s Why Elon Keeps Blowing ItByBrad Templeton,Senior Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Brad Templeton, who was early at Waymo, covers transportation's futureFollow AuthorMay 27, 2026, 09:00am EDT--:-- / --:--This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.Waymo promotes their plans to serve riders in London in 2026WaymoThrough a mix of luck and skill, I happen to have made the most accurate prediction of the timelines for robotaxis back in 2013. In this video, I show the prediction, and what factors led into it (and which didn’t) and I also show other’s predictions and explain what’s hard about forecasting revolutionary technology. I also examine what has made Elon Musk, who should know better, to make wrong forecasts about his own technology for almost as long.(Here’s the video version of this article with video of the original prediction and many other predictions.)The world of robotaxis is heating up in London. We’ve seen three companies announce plans to deploy robotaxis in London in 2026. First is Waymo, which is testing now with safety drivers. Next is the Chinese company Baidu Apollo, and local favorite, the London-based company Wayve. All announced they would like to deploy by the 2nd quarter of the year.Back in 2013, a younger me was on stage in London at a conference hosted by Wired Magazine, giving a talk about the future of self-driving cars. I got a question from the editor of Wired UK that I would frequently get in these talks:MORE FOR YOU You will notice the audience laughed, because my answer is partly meant as a joke, to say that it’s foolish to name a date for something so far in the future. I obviously didn’t know, or think I knew, the exact date and time. I had done this joke before, and was just picking a random date, though deliberately a random date in the mid-2020s. Whi...