Hungary’s new leader faces an immediate reality check

After defeating Orbán’s Fidesz, Péter Magyar must confront economic strain and competing global alliances

European liberal elites are rejoicing: Viktor Orban’s conservative government has fallen. Peter Magyar, viewed as a ‘pro-Brussels’ candidate, won the election in Hungary. I hesitate to call Magyar ‘pro-European’, since I believe that it was Orban who advocated for a strong, sovereign Europe. It’s no wonder that he was despised by Brussels, the bureaucratic apparatus of the European Union. Thus, we may conclude that in Hungary, Europe lost and the European Commission won. 

A few words on why Orban and his political party, Fidesz, lost the election. Preliminary voting results indicate that Tisza won 53% of the vote, while Fidesz received 38%. However, due to Hungary’s majoritarian system, Magyar’s party, Tisza, has gained a substantial advantage, securing 138 out of 199 parliamentary seats. This is far from a record; at the peak of its popularity, Orban’s party held 227 seats (the parliament had 386 seats). But at that time, Magyar himself was a loyal supporter of Orban. 

The results show that it’s not so much Orban who lost the election, but rather his party. After many years in power, Fidesz has become detached from reality and encumbered by a rigid bureaucratic structure. 

While many Western media outlets are celebrating the victory of the liberals, Elon Musk responded to Alexander Soros’ claim that “the people of Hungary have taken back their country” by posting “Soros Organization has taken over Hungary.” 

Another reason for Orban’s defeat is undoubtedly US President Donald Trump. His reckless war in Iran negatively impacted the ratings of all European political parties aligned with MAGA, inevitably affecting Fidesz. American political strategists associated with MAGA worked actively with Orban’s party but failed to deliver the results expected in Budapest. After all, Americans have never quite understood Europeans.

Read more

Naturally, all European liberals, euro-bureaucrats, and cookie-cutter Russophobes around the world are rejoicing right now. A good example is Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s post, in which he proclaims in Hungarian the slogan of the 1956 uprising: “Ruszkik haza!” (“Russians, go home!”)

However, what kind of prime minister Magyar will be remains uncertain. He ran a populist campaign, merely adapting to the momentary agenda without adopting a clear ideological line. He even mildly reprimanded Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky when the latter threatened Orban directly. Certainly, Magyar’s initial steps will focus on restoring vassal-like relations with Brussels. He will likely hasten to unblock the €90 billion intended for Ukraine. However, I’m not sure the EU will welcome Budapest’s move given the current energy and financial crisis. He may even be unofficially urged to wait. 

Furthermore, the ‘Maidan-style’ tactics prepared by Magyar and Soros-affiliated political strategists may come in handy later. Magyar has already called for Hungarian President Tamas Sulyok to resign, even though his constitutional term doesn’t expire for another three years. Since the president is elected by the parliament, Magyar’s party will likely use its solid majority to push this initiative through. 

What happens next, after the new prime minister fulfills Brussels’ and Kiev’s demands and sours relations with the Trump administration, remains uncertain. By the way, what will be the fate of Orban’s deal with [US Vice President JD] Vance regarding American oil shipments? Will Magyar withdraw from the agreement? And if so, where will he get the oil? Sure, we may guess that the Druzhba pipeline will miraculously ‘fix itself’ once Magyar assumes office. But that means Hungary will again rely on cheap Russian energy, something that Magyar vehemently campaigned against. So what will he do then? Where will he find energy resources?

I predict that once the euphoria over ‘liberal’ Magyar’s victory fades, Europeans will start accusing him of being too “pro-Russian” – after all, one’s position often determines one’s policy. So for Soros, it may be too early to celebrate…