How The NBA’s New Draft Lottery Changes The Incentives Around Tanking

BusinessSportsMoneyHow The NBA’s New Draft Lottery Changes The Incentives Around TankingByGiovanni Malloy,Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Giovanni Malloy, Ph.d, is a data scientist and sports analyst.Follow AuthorMay 29, 2026, 12:42am EDT--:-- / --:--This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 25: Commissioner Adam Silver poses with 2025 NBA Draft Prospects prior to the first round of the 2025 NBA Draft at Barclays Center on June 25, 2025 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)Getty ImagesThe NBA has changed the rules governing the NBA Draft. Beginning in 2027, the league will replace its existing draft lottery format with a new system intended to discourage teams from deliberately positioning themselves near the bottom of the standings. The move represents the NBA’s latest attempt to address an enduring tension in its competitive structure. The draft is supposed to help weaker teams rebuild. But the more valuable the reward for losing becomes, the greater the concern that teams may have an incentive to pursue draft position rather than wins.For the NBA, the perception that teams benefit from losing threatens the credibility of the regular season and the experience of fans watching teams play out the schedule, and the evidence is mounting that tanking may be more than perception. The central question raised by the new lottery is therefore whether the league has reduced incentives to tank.San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama (1) and Oklahoma City Thunder center Isaiah Hartenstein (55) vie for a rebound in the first half of Game 6 in the Western Conference finals NBA basketball playoffs series, Thursda...