Hormuz gamble

THE fragile ceasefire between Iran and the US may have slowed the fighting, but the conflict driving it remains unresolved. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi’s meetings in Tehran over the weekend show the urgency of the crisis and the narrowing space for diplomacy.

Even as President Donald Trump warned that “the clock is ticking” for Iran, reports suggest diplomacy may already have helped avert another escalation after Tehran submitted a revised proposal through Islamabad. That underlines how consequential Pakistan’s role has become.

Islamabad is increasingly acting as a conduit through which proposals move between Tehran and Washington. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s contacts with Qatar and Egypt further demonstrate Pakistan’s attempt to position itself at the centre of regional diplomacy when few reliable communication channels remain open.

The negotiations themselves, however, remain deeply troubled. Iranian media reports suggest Washington’s latest proposal still demands sweeping nuclear concessions while offering little relief in return. Tehran is reportedly being asked to scale back much of its nuclear infrastructure, transfer enriched uranium abroad and begin talks before broader hostilities end. Iran, meanwhile, continues demanding sanctions relief, access to frozen assets, reparations for wartime damage and guarantees against future attacks.

Yet beneath the public posturing, there are faint signs both sides may be probing for compromise. Reports indicate Iran may be willing to suspend parts of its nuclear programme, transfer some enriched uranium abroad and gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz if sanctions are eased and security guarantees materialise. Publicly, however, neither Washington nor Tehran wishes to appear politically weakened by flexibility.

The Strait of Hormuz has become the real centre of the confrontation. Earlier phases of the crisis revolved around nuclear restrictions. Today, the dispute concerns who shapes the Gulf’s security order and controls one of the world’s most vital energy corridors. Iran continues to use Hormuz as leverage while the US and Gulf states insist unrestricted navigation is non-negotiable.

This leaves the region hanging between diplomacy and renewed conflict. Gulf governments fear the economic consequences of another escalation, while Iran appears convinced that surviving months of military and economic pressure has strengthened its negotiating position. Washington, meanwhile, still seems to believe sustained pressure can force Tehran into larger concessions.

For Pakistan, mediation offers diplomatic relevance but also growing risk. The longer the crisis drags on, the harder it will become for Islamabad to balance relations with Tehran, Washington and the Gulf states. For now, the ceasefire survives because all sides understand the cost of its collapse. But unless negotiations soon give way to progress rather than competing ultimatums, the Middle East may be heading not towards peace, but a prolonged era of recurring crises.

Published in Dawn, May 20th, 2026